I thought that after I2's breakout domestically, it will do the same in Japan as well but I guess not.

I think releasing more original films will help. Pixar is still doing well in Japan, but they've become stagnant while Walt Disney Animation and Illumination have grown.

Toy Story 4 will definitely decline, I believe.

Seating/showtime allocation for this upcoming weekend (Top 10):

01. ~20.7% - Code Blue (Week 2)
02. ~16.3% - Mission: Impossible - Fallout (NEW)
03. ~15.8% - Incredibles 2 (NEW)
04. ~12.0% - My Hero Academia: Two Heroes (NEW)
05. ~9.7% - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Week 4)
06. ~7.0% - Mirai of the Future (Week 3)
07. ~6.9% - Sensei Kunshun (NEW)
08. ~5.2% - Pokemon: Everyone's Story (Week 4)
09. ~3.4% - Blue Summer (NEW)
10. ~2.8% - Bleach (Week 3)

Weekday Estimates (07/30-08/03)

Monday-Wednesday


Thursday (08/02)
¥215 million ($1.9 million), 0, ¥2.705 billion ($24.3 million), Code Blue (Day 7)
¥135 million ($1.2 million), 0, ¥390.0 million ($3.5 million), Incredibles 2 (Day 2)
¥85 million ($760,000), -26%, ¥5.390 billion ($48.1 million), Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Day 21)
¥45 million ($400,000), -24%, ¥1.435 billion ($13.0 million), Mirai of the Future (Day 14)
¥40 million ($360,000), 0, ¥120.0 million ($1.1 million), Sensei Kunshun (Day 2)
¥40 million ($360,000), -24%, ¥1.855 billion ($16.7 million), Pokemon: Everyone's Story (Day 21)
¥10 million ($90,000), 0, ¥28.00 million ($250,000), Blue Summer (Day 2)
¥9 million ($80,000), -45%, ¥413.0 million ($3.7 million), Bleach (Day 14)
¥8 million ($70,000), -43%, ¥2.044 billion ($18.5 million), Solo: A Star Wars Story (Day 35)
¥7 million ($65,000), -41%, ¥4.246 billion ($38.4 million), Shoplifters (Day 56)
__________
¥2 million ($20,000), -56%, ¥8.688 billion ($79.4 million), Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Day 112)

% changes versus same day last week.

I hope Fallout can at least match the performance of Rogue Nation.

It's incredibly like to, I think. Mission: Impossible is a very recognizable franchise. All five films achieved blockbuster status, and all three previous films have had almost identical performances -- it's a very consistent film series.

Film Franchises with Most Blockbuster Entries/Overall Entries

8/8 (100%) - Harry Potter
6/8 (75%) - Star Wars
5/5 (100%) - Jurassic Park
5/5 (100%) - Pirates of the Caribbean
5/5 (100%) - Mission: Impossible
4/4 (100%) - Bayside Shakedown
3/3 (100%) - Back to the Future
3/3 (100%) - The Lord of the Rings
3/3 (100%) - The Matrix
3/4 (75%) - Umizaru
3/6 (50%) - Spider-Man
3/21 (17%) - Pokemon
3/22 (14%) - Detective Conan
3+

*Blockbuster = ¥5 billion.

Will the reviews for MI:Fallout hailing it as the best one in the series also help?

The last two films also receiving glowing reviews, though, so I don't really think the reception for Fallout will give it a noticeable boost. The franchise is also so well-established, and so consistent at the box-office, that it'll be difficult to really deviate too much. And that's totally fine given its position.

Would it make much difference if the next film puts a Jap in the cast? I mean, I think the answer is no, but thought I'd check if there is any precedence for it. I know that sort of strategy isn't effective anymore in terms of US movies in China.

I doubt it. I can't think of any film benefiting from a Japanese actor being cast.

Friday Estimates will be posted soon. It was a three-film battle for the #1 spot for the day, and any of the three films could have been #1 in revenue, honestly.

Weekday Estimates (07/30-08/03)

Monday-Thursday


Friday (08/03)
¥225 million ($2.0 million), 0, ¥225.0 million ($2.0 million), My Hero Academia: Two Heroes (NEW)
¥220 million ($2.0 million), 0, ¥220.0 million ($2.0 million), Mission: Impossible - Fallout (NEW)
¥215 million ($1.9 million), -53%, ¥2.920 billion ($26.2 million), Code Blue (Day 8)
¥125 million ($1.1 million), 0, ¥515.0 million ($4.6 million), Incredibles 2 (Day 3)
¥70 million ($625,000), -44%, ¥5.460 billion ($48.7 million), Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Day 22)
¥45 million ($400,000), -30%, ¥1.480 billion ($13.4 million), Mirai of the Future (Day 15)
¥40 million ($360,000), 0, ¥160.0 million ($1.4 million), Sensei Kunshun (Day 3)
¥35 million ($315,000), -25%, ¥1.890 billion ($17.0 million), Pokemon: Everyone's Story (Day 22)
¥9 million ($85,000), 0, ¥37.00 million ($340,000), Blue Summer (Day 3)
¥7 million ($65,000), -57%, ¥420.0 million ($3.8 million), Bleach (Day 15)
¥6 million ($55,000), -62, ¥2.050 billion ($18.6 million), Solo: A Star Wars Story (Day 36)
¥4 million ($35,000), -60%, ¥4.250 billion ($38.5 million), Shoplifters (Day 57)

% changes versus same day last week.

It's basically a toss-up on which film in the Top 3 won the day in revenue. My Hero Academia: Two Heroes, thanks to strong pre-sales due to the manga giveaway to the first 1 million attendees, was #1 in admissions selling about 45% of its available tickets, but it likely had the lowest average ticket price so a victory in revenue isn't certain.

Mission: Impossible - Fallout had a good first day, one that indicates it'll pretty much open on par with the previous two entries.

Code Blue experienced a pretty hard drop from its opening day last week, but last Friday was also a bit boosted from people going to the theaters before the typhoon hit, so I still think it'll have a great second weekend -- especially since last Saturday was deflated a bit.

And I have to say... kinda poor for Incredibles 2. I'm sure it'll recover over the weekend, but it's definitely underperforming. It might even have to settle for a fourth place debut this weekend.

Also, Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer took a mammoth 90% dive versus last Friday and isn't worth tracking now (it made maybe $3,000 for the day).

I'll have the Weekend Forecast up later this evening.

Quite an underperformance for Incredibles 2 relative to other markets, especially the U.S. Looking at under ¥4 billion total now?

That seems like a pretty decent opening for MHA. Could it be looking at a 3 billion yen total ?

I hope MI6 eeks out victory. Corpse any idea on MI6 and I2 WoM. It's pretty stupid for I2 to release on this weekend with My Hero releasing as well is that like a scheduling mistake to have so many big movies open this weekend?

Let's wait and see what it ends up grossing this weekend first, and even then, with the upcoming holiday period, it can be hard to gauge a new film.

I feel like it'll, at the very least, get to about ¥4 billion.

It depends on how frontloaded it ends up being with the manga giveaway tie-in. If it opens near my forecast, I'd say ¥2.5 billion is likely, but ¥3 billion could be doable.

It's hard to get an idea of WOM for films in Japan until a few days, or at least a week in release, due to the backloaded nature of the market.

No, this is a great weekend to release Incredibles 2 on. The box-office can support just about everything, and anything, between mid-July through late-August. This time frame is always packed with many big films, and half of the yearly top 10 can consist of July/August releases. My Hero Academia isn't even competition whatsoever for Incredibles 2 either, since it's just attracting the fans of the manga/anime.

There are currently four animated films in the Top 10, and none of them seem to be affecting one another for instance. Animated films have diverse audiences in Japan, so they don't usually overlap. Incredibles 2 underwhelming is simply a result of Japanese audiences dismissing Pixar sequels, in my opinion. Every Pixar sequel has decreased.

How have the M:I films fared in Japan?

I posted yesterday, I think, that Mission: Impossible is one of the most consistently successful franchises in Japan, and that all five films in the series have achieved blockbuster status (¥5 billion).

Here's the Box Office History for the franchise, which now includes opening weekend data, admissions aside unfortunately, for the first two films:

Mission: Impossible Box Office History

Opening Weekends:
¥1.390 billion ($12.8 million) / N/A - Mission: Impossible II
¥720.1 million ($6.3 million) / 528,245 - Mission: Impossible III
¥573.5 million ($4.6 million) / 427,281 - Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation
¥573.2 million ($7.3 million) / 437,751 - Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
¥545.0 million ($4.9 million) / N/A - Mission: Impossible

Totals:
¥9.70 billion ($94.1 million) / 7.62 million - Mission: Impossible II
¥6.50 billion ($53.9 million) / 5.20 million - Mission: Impossible
¥5.38 billion ($70.5 million) / 4.24 million - Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
¥5.15 billion ($46.5 million) / 4.17 million - Mission: Impossible III
¥5.14 billion ($42.3 million) / 3.91 million - Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation

Given how long the franchise has been going, and the wait between releases, you'll notice some extreme differences in openings/totals in regard to USD figures since the exchange rate can be vastly different after a few years. Therefore, I'd just look at the JPY and admissions figures to see how consistent the series really is. The second film, of course, is the exception.

Mission: Impossible - Fallout is on track open above a bit the the original, Ghost Protocol, and Rogue Nation based on its performance so far today. I'm going to post a general Saturday update this weekend since the weekend top 10 is likely to be among the biggest aggregated weekends ever.

So do you think it can crack 6 billion yen? Or is that too much to ask?

It could. It's very likely to reach the ¥5 billion milestone again, and I can see it reaching ¥5.5 billion.

Saturday Update:

Code Blue (Week 2) and Mission: Impossible - Fallout (NEW) had an incredibly close race for the #1 spot for the day, and it's way too close to know which film won. At the usual locations (65-70% of the market), the two films were only separated by 314 admissions with Code Blue edging out a victory. If you include the independent theaters chains, which when included along with the usual locations make up 75-80% of the market, Code Blue won the day by a slightly higher 2,299 admissions. In regard to the weekend forecast, Code Blue may come in a little lower, while Mission: Impossible remains unchanged.

Below them, Incredibles 2 (NEW) came in third place and held off My Hero Academia: Two Heroes (NEW). Incredibles 2 still didn't do particularly well, but a third place debut looks better than a fourth place one. My Hero Academia was down versus Friday, a rare occurrence, indicating the expected frontloadedness it'll experience due to the manga giveaway tie-in. In regard to the weekend forecast, Incredibles 2 goes unchanged, while My Hero Academia will come in lower.

Kamen Rider Build: Be the One (NEW) also performed nicely, but will still have to settle for fifth place due to all the big films in release. It should come in around the weekend forecast.

The notable holdovers all dropped surprisingly hard. They lost a lot of seating/showtimes due all the new releases, but their drops (between ~40-50%) are still high. They'll likely recover some tomorrow.

Biggest All-Time Aggregated Weekends (Top 10 Films; 1998-)

01. ¥3.601 billion - 07/09-10/2005 (#1 Film - Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith)
02. ¥3.485 billion - 08/04-05/2001 (#1 Film - Spirited Away)
03. ¥3.427 billion - 05/03-04/2014 (#1 Film - Frozen)
04. ¥3.423 billion - 07/19-20/2003 (#1 Film - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge!)
05. ¥3.379 billion - 08/08-09/2015 (#1 Film - Jurassic World)
06. ¥3.329 billion - 07/21-22/2007 (#1 Film - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix)
07. ¥3.314 billion - 07/22-23/2006 (#1 Film - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest)
08. ¥3.297 billion - 08/15-16/2015 (#1 Film - Jurassic World)
09. ¥3.212 billion - 07/28-29/2001 (#1 Film - Spirited Away)
10. ¥3.160 billion - 04/17-18/2010 (#1 Film - Alice in Wonderland)
11. ¥3.150 billion - 04/29-30/2017 (#1 Film - Beauty and the Beast)
12. ¥3.133 billion - 08/16-17/2003 (#1 Film - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge!)
13. ¥3.106 billion - 12/19-20/2015 (#1 Film - Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
14. ¥3.048 billion - 07/21-22/2001 (#1 Film - Spirited Away)
14. ¥3.046 billion - 12/20-21/2014 (#1 Film - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan!)
16. ¥3.026 billion - 08/04-05/2018 (#1 Film - Code Blue)
¥3 billion+

July: 6 Months
August: 5 Months
December: 2 Months
April: 2 Months
May: 1 Month