Hi there. Given your low post count, I assume you are also mostly a lurker here (like me). And I mean no disrespect, but couldn't you at least read the last few posts? Corpse has explained a thousand times why they see Frozen 2's most likely ending above $130m.

That would be cutting it quite close though, $130m is only a bit over ¥14b (at current exchange) which is what WWY landed on. There's enough room there to miss out. FWIW, I have no idea about the dollar totals, I basically only understand it in Yen.

Looking at it again in showdown form, it's striking to me that Frozen was never that far ahead of WWY at all really, because it seemed like such a juggernaut, I'd just forgotten how well WWY did with summer weekdays and especially over Obon. Even the Christmas weekdays haven't lifted Frozen up by much. Corpse says next weekend Frozen might see something like ¥400m, which would still put it -1.3b through the same point, not much better than it was against WWY's Obon week. Next week's returns are going to have to be very strong to close the gap, like double or something.

Weathering With You
¥1.185 b
¥1.012 b -15%, ¥3.99 b
¥718.1 m -29%, ¥5.91 b
¥645.2 m -10%, ¥7.51 b
¥532.7 m -17%, ¥9.65 b
¥420.6 m -21%, ¥10.73 b
¥416.6 m -01%, ¥11.65 b
¥253.5 m -39%, ¥12.18 b
¥212.5 m -16%, ¥12.58 b*
¥149.9 m -29%, ¥12.97 b*
¥132.6 m -11%, ¥13.29 b
¥096.3 m -27%, ¥13.51 b

Frozen 2
¥1.616 b
¥1.443 b -11%, ¥4.31 b (+0.32b)
¥1.033 b -29%, ¥6.01 b (+0.10b)
¥780.1 m -26%, ¥7.34 b (-0.17b)
¥513.8 m -34%, ¥8.28 b (-1.37b)

Post-Obon weekdays vs Christmas weekdays:

Weathering With You
¥145m/¥9.795b
¥120m/¥9.915b
¥145m/¥10.060b
¥105m/¥10.165b
¥115m/¥10.280b

Frozen 2
¥090m/¥8.360b (-1.435b)
¥105m/¥8.465b (-1.450b)
¥195m/¥8.660b (-1.400b)
¥170m/¥8.830b (-1.335b)

And here's WWY's last week of summer which will be equivalent to Frozen's New Year week

¥115m/¥10.850b
¥085m/¥10.935b
¥110m/¥11.045b
¥080m/¥11.125b
¥090m/¥11.215b

$140m USD is a different calculation based on inflation, conversion, ticket prices and other few other criteria. I think Corpse's post mostly cover all the details that you are looking for in terms of Yen and USD so you can wait for those updates to answer your questions.

Corpse mentioned that he is seeing signs of stronger weekend numbers than weekdays for Frozen 2 going forward. I think a better understanding of Frozen 2's trajectory will come one or two weekends AFTER the holiday season so that we can gauge how much interest still stays. I'd say let's hold on the predicting the total for now in an exact number and agree on a $130m-$150m range (I know a little bit on the high end but that comes from the nature of this market). Given the current drops I don't think it will do more than $140m but then again the market is known for its surprises.

On another matter, what are the odds that there are over 200m tickets sold this year? Insidekino, the German box office website, adds up the top 10 every weekend, and through last weekend, it's at ¥93.77b, 18% ahead of last year. If you extrapolate that to the overall box office, and divide by a slightly higher ticket price for this year, I get 199m tickets.

http://www.insidekino.de/BO/JP2019.htm

Yes I think Corpse is tired with all our questions but Frozen 2 is so interesting to follow and with school holidays I'm very hyped by how much Frozen 2 could make during this holidays and after ...

I wouldn't say tired but he is in general a very busy person (with two or three? jobs in hand) who takes a lot of time to maintain this thread. Some of these questions sound very repetitive (even to me, I have been following Corpse's threads in here for 7+ years now) which is why the concern. I am sure he is more than thrilled the extra traffic and interest to his thread(s) in general.

It won't be an easy path for Frozen II to surpass Weathering With You, and if it would collapse after the holiday period, it won't beat Weathering With You, but I believe it has the advantage still. It will need a strong boost next week, admittingly.

I'm going to do some "projecting" right now, but do NOT take this as a prediction:

It's going into the weekend right around ¥9 billion ($82/83 million), and assuming a sixth-weekend around ¥450 million, it'll enter New Year Week (next Monday) with around ¥9.5 billion ($86/87 million). Then its New Year Week will probably be stronger than Christmas Week (mostly due to the gains it'll see Mon-to-Mon), so let's assume it adds around ¥800/900 million more from next Mon.-Fri.. It'll be at ¥10.3/10.4 billion ($95/96 million) going into the the first weekend of January, which is typically strong and can sometimes see increases, but let's say it just stays flat and does another ¥450 million again next weekend. So, coming out of the holiday period (January 5th), it should be somewhere around ¥10.8 billion ($99/100 million). That'll be about ¥800 million, or 7%, behind Weathering With You after seven weeks in release. Its weekdays will begin to drop-off again, but after the initial post-New Year weekend drop on the weekend of Jan. 11-12th, its weekends should remain pretty strong, and should ultimately lead it to around ¥15 billion (which is almost $140 million).

Again, this is just a very rough, normal projection. I think its gross during New Year will end up a little better than I projected, and I do expect a small increase next weekend, so I wouldn't be surprised if it broke ¥11 billion by January 5th. That should be the milestone to watch. At the end of the holiday period (January 5th): If it's below ¥11 billion, it'll struggle to beat Weathering With You. If it's above ¥11 billion, it's likely to beat Weathering With You.

And it is very interesting, that in the end, both Frozen II and Weathering With You, a sequel and a follow-up, respectively, to two films that achieved all-time great performances to gross over ¥25 billion (¥25.5 billion and ¥25.03 billion) and end up in the All-Time Top 4 films ever, will end up having very similar totals once again (¥14/15 billion).

The 2019 box-office will almost certainly become the biggest year ever in revenue.

200 million admissions is probably too high, but it's looking to beat 2016's admissions (180.189 million) to become the most attended year since at least, get ready for this, 1974(!). I'm expecting around 190 million admissions (a whopping 20 million more than last year), and that'd be enough to make 2019 the most attended year since 1972's 187.391 million admissions. 1971's 216.754 million admissions will be out of reach though.

Oddly, I have never posted a Most Attended Years list. I'll get on that later today, following Friday's estimates.

Christmas Week 2019 - Daily Estimates (12/23-27):

Monday (12/23)
¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥1,795,000,000 ($16.5 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) Day 04
¥x90,000,000 ($820,000), +13%, ¥8,360,000,000 ($76.5 million), Frozen II (Disney) Day 32
¥x50,000,000 ($455,000), 0, ¥470,000,000 ($4.3 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) Day 04
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), 0, ¥275,000,000 ($2.5 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) Day 03
¥x18,000,000 ($165,000), -38%, ¥485,000,000 ($4.5 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) Day 11
¥x17,000,000 ($155,000), -09%, ¥630,000,000 ($5.8 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) Day 18
¥x16,000,000 ($145,000), -56%, ¥475,000,000 ($4.3 million), Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony) Day 11
¥x10,000,000 ($x90,000), -33%, ¥747,000,000 ($6.9 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) Day 18
¥x08,000,000 ($x75,000), 0, ¥x65,000,000 ($0.6 million), How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Toho-Towa) Day 04
¥x07,000,000 ($x65,000), +46%, ¥231,000,000 ($2.2 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) Day 11

Tuesday (12/24): Christmas Eve
¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥1,960,000,000 ($18.0 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) Day 05
¥105,000,000 ($960,000), +74%, ¥8,465,000,000 ($77.5 million), Frozen II (Disney) Day 33
¥x40,000,000 ($365,000), 0, ¥510,000,000 ($4.7 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) Day 05
¥x22,000,000 ($200,000), +43%, ¥652,000,000 ($6.0 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) Day 19
¥x20,000,000 ($185,000), 0, ¥295,000,000 ($2.7 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) Day 04
¥x20,000,000 ($185,000), -19%, ¥507,000,000 ($4.6 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) Day 12
¥x17,000,000 ($155,000), -49%, ¥492,000,000 ($4.5 million), Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony) Day 12
¥x11,000,000 ($100,000), -03%, ¥758,000,000 ($7.0 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) Day 19
¥x10,000,000 ($x90,000), +228%, ¥241,000,000 ($2.3 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) Day 12
¥x08,000,000 ($x75,000), 0, ¥x73,000,000 ($0.7 million), How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Toho-Towa) Day 05

Wednesday (12/25): Christmas Day
¥195,000,000 ($1.8 million), +106%, ¥8,660,000,000 ($79.3 million), Frozen II (Disney) Day 34
¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥2,135,000,000 ($19.6 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) Day 06
¥x55,000,000 ($500,000), 0, ¥565,000,000 ($5.2 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) Day 06
¥x35,000,000 ($320,000), +67%, ¥687,000,000 ($6.3 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) Day 20
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), -08%, ¥537,000,000 ($4.9 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) Day 13
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), 0, ¥320,000,000 ($2.9 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) Day 05
¥x21,000,000 ($190,000), +436%, ¥262,000,000 ($2.5 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) Day 13
¥x21,000,000 ($190,000), -32%, ¥513,000,000 ($4.7 million), Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony) Day 13
¥x20,000,000 ($185,000), +43%, ¥778,000,000 ($7.2 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) Day 20
¥x13,000,000 ($120,000), 0, ¥x86,000,000 ($0.8 million), How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Toho-Towa) Day 06

Thursday (12/26)
¥180,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥2,315,000,000 ($21.2 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) Day 07
¥170,000,000 ($1.6 million), +169%, ¥8,830,000,000 ($80.9 million), Frozen II (Disney) Day 35
¥x50,000,000 ($455,000), 0, ¥615,000,000 ($5.6 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) Day 07
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), +721%, ¥292,000,000 ($2.8 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) Day 14
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), +57%, ¥712,000,000 ($6.5 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) Day 21
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), 0, ¥345,000,000 ($3.1 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) Day 06
¥x22,000,000 ($200,000), +01%, ¥559,000,000 ($5.1 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) Day 14
¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), +69%, ¥798,000,000 ($7.4 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) Day 21
¥x19,000,000 ($175,000), -34%, ¥532,000,000 ($4.9 million), Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony) Day 14
¥x12,000,000 ($110,000), 0, ¥x98,000,000 ($0.9 million), How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Toho-Towa) Day 07

Friday (12/27)
¥220,000,000 ($2.0 million), -58%, ¥2,535,000,000 ($23.2 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) Day 08
¥180,000,000 ($1.6 million), +162%, ¥9,010,000,000 ($82.5 million), Frozen II (Disney) Day 36
¥x65,000,000 ($595,000), 0, ¥x65,000,000 ($0.6 million), Welcome Back, Tora-san! (Shochiku) NEW
¥x55,000,000 ($500,000), -63%, ¥670,000,000 ($6.1 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) Day 08
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), 0, ¥x30,000,000 ($0.3 million), Shinkansen-Transforming... Shinkalion: The Mythically Fast ALFA-X (Toho Video Division) NEW
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), +83%, ¥742,000,000 ($6.8 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) Day 22
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), +678%, ¥317,000,000 ($3.0 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) Day 15
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), 0, ¥370,000,000 ($3.4 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) Day 07
¥x21,000,000 ($190,000), -01%, ¥580,000,000 ($5.3 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) Day 15
¥x18,000,000 ($165,000), +70%, ¥816,000,000 ($7.5 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) Day 22

% changes versus same day last week.

Most Attended Years, Yearly Admissions (1955-):

1958 - 1,127,452,000
1957 - 1,098,882,000
1959 - 1,088,111,000
1960 - 1,014,364,000
1956 - 993,875,000
1955 - 868,912,000
1961 - 863,430,000
1962 - 662,279,000
1963 - 511,121,000
1964 - 431,454,000
1965 - 372,676,000
1966 - 345,811,000
1967 - 335,067,000
1968 - 313,398,000
1969 - 283,980,000
1970 - 254,799,000
1971 - 216,754,000
2019 - 190,000,000+ (Rough Projection/Placeholder Rank)
1972 - 187,391,000
1974 - 185,738,000
1973 - 185,324,000
2016 - 180,189,000
2017 - 174,483,000
2010 - 174,358,000
1975 - 174,020,000
1976 - 171,020,000
1983 - 170,430,000
2004 - 170,092,000
2009 - 169,297,000
2018 - 169,210,000
2015 - 166,630,000
1978 - 166,042,000
1977 - 165,172,000
1979 - 165,088,000
2006 - 164,585,000
1980 - 164,422,000
2001 - 163,280,000
2007 - 163,193,000
2003 - 162,347,000
2014 - 161,116,000
2002 - 160,767,000
1986 - 160,758,000
2008 - 160,491,000
2005 - 160,453,000
2013 - 155,888,000
1982 - 155,280,000
2012 - 155,159,000
1985 - 155,130,000
1998 - 153,102,000
1984 - 150,527,000
1981 - 149,450,000
1990 - 146,000,000
1988 - 144,825,000
1999 - 144,762,000
2011 - 144,726,000
1987 - 143,935,000
1989 - 143,573,000
1997 - 140,719,000
1991 - 138,330,000
2000 - 135,390,000
1993 - 130,720,000
1995 - 127,040,000
1992 - 125,600,000
1994 - 122,990,000
1996 - 119,575,000

Legend: '50s / '60s / '70s / '80s / '90s / '00s / '10s

Thanks for the admissions numbers Corpse, but can you use a colour other than Yellow?
It's impossible to see without highlighting it.

Done.

Really really good analyse Corpse, I hope SW9 could make the same or bigger numbers and I really hope after 5th January, Frozen 2 could add $30M-$40 even if it's not sure but with Japan we can't never now, maybe it will make less, maybe more, let's wait and see ...

Why movies often drop on the weekend between christmas and new year week?

Because of the increased business during the two set of weekdays, the weekend between them isn't always as strong. But that's not always the case. It can vary by film, and by what dates fall on the last weekend of December. And so far, this weekend is looking to be quite strong. We may see a couple films, Frozen II among them, experience a slight increase or remain flat versus last weekend.

This is pretty much exactly what I was thinking. Although personally, I don't think anything about its performance so far suggests that it will hold well enough post New Years to reach WWY.

So Monday start one of the 3 biggest week for box office in Japan right ? I hope big numbers for Frozen 2 and TROS

It is. Unfortunately, only Star Wars and Frozen will take any real advantage of it (pretty barren December this year)... Everything else is either too fan-driven for the holiday period to really matter much (Kamen Rider, My Hero Academia), or just isn't very big and has been in release for awhile to post any impressive numbers.

So this weekend the number is around +4% from last weekend, slight increase.
Since this weekend the aldults are already off from work, and the number in late evening Sunday is stronger than last Sunday (from 8pm). Do you think Frozen still has a decent amount of aldult audience in Japan?

It does. It's not exclusively appealing toward children and families, they're just its primary audience.

It'll do well over New Year.

Weekend Actuals will be delayed until next Monday. I thought they might be released today, but with New Year's Eve being tomorrow, they've been delayed. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday are all national holidays, and they won't be released over the weekend either, so next Monday is the earliest to expect them. When actuals get delayed like this, they often come in very slowly as well.

With that said, I'm going to begin posting Daily Estimates for New Years Week in a couple hours (EDIT: Soon), beginning with Monday (obviously), so keep in mind that the cumulative totals will be estimates of estimates since we don't know this past weekend's actuals yet.