What? Tuesday was updated later in the day and the number became much lower after correction. If Wednesday has the same treatment, how it is opposite to yesterday's ?

EDIT: Sorry. I didnt read carefully... Understood now.

The correction for Wednesday, if there is one later this evening, will add admissions instead.

So..... in the future, when all the theaters from all chain are back to 100% capacity.... we are supposed to observe a week with no drop from last week?

Can you clarify a bit?

Are you asking if, once theaters stop switching between 50/100% capacity, can we compare one week to the last without there being errors in the numbers until they're corrected? If that's what you mean, yes. They weekends, for example, are fine to compare each hour (or 20 mins) because they've been at 100% for a month now (unless the servers crash at Aeon...).

But if you're asking if we can expect a week that remains flat (or increases) over the last, then that's very unlikely unless a holiday or some other boost is involved, or much, much later in its run. The level at which this movie continues to perform is, well, on a different level. It's still several weeks ahead of the biggest films in the market on a daily basis.

It's not very accurate to compare Japan with the U.S., but if you did, then this movie is posting like $50 million+ (higher last week) level weekdays every single day so far and like $150/200 million Saturdays and Sundays.

I mean.....
For example, this week we still have many theaters omly at 50% capacity om weekdays. If next week all the theaters are back 100% capactiy on weekdays, will the drop be very small??? (Because more seats available => more tickets sold, enough to balance the drop)??

Got you. Still probably not because on the days it's at 50% capacity, it's still playing on over half the available screens at those theaters and has 20-40 showings depending on locations. Even on the 100% capacity days, it's been on over half the screens and has 20-40 showings. It's essentially maxed out available seating/screening/showtimes nationwide, even making theaters open as early as 7am and close well after midnight (4am) on weekends.

If it would have single digit drops or 10% drops every day that I think you're asking for, thus matching the legs of the leggiest films ever, it'd reach like ¥70-90 billion ($700-900 million) with 50-70 million admissions, and that's not happening. 20-30% drops, if that becomes the norm range, is very good.

I do not think its possible to see this movie have no drop until later in its run. You have to consider the amount of people that have already seen the movie by now. Its definitely getting only casual/new viewers now plus repeat viewers so its just impossible to keep up this pace regardless of the seats available.

I think a lot of people are trying to compare DS:MT's run with Spirited Away so as to catch up with it total. For all those folks you have to remember this movie DOES NOT need to behave like a regular blockbuster at this point because then we would be looking at 60B yen total or higher which is impossible to ask from it. It will/may develop good legs but those will come after it comes down to earth so expect it to drop a little more around 30% for next 2-3 weeks and then we *may* see a week where it begins to do even better holds sub-10% or so (specially because holidays will also start to become a factor).

The admissions today at the usual locations look fine when compared to those of last Wednesday, but the percentage drop remains inaccurate. As of 12PM, it's only down 15% compared to last Wednesday (very strong, maybe a bit too strong, but it looks realistic to me at the moment), but that's translating to an inaccurate 4/5% decline right now at the usual locations.

So, when checking the admissions at the usual locations, click HERE and then compare them to last week (or any day) using the closest time stamp to get a better idea of what the percentage difference really is.

Until the programmers correct the numbers in the evening, this is probably going to be the most reliable means of accurately tracking it throughout most of the day (on the weekdays) for awhile.

So I just made an account to post in this thread after lurking for several days, thanks a lot for your excellent analysis Corpse

So first of all I'm just gonna say alright that I'm one of those "haters" of KnY, not really that I hate the franchise but I just don't like it when something monopolizes everything else like KnY has done, especially when it's kinda a fad.. And Kimetsu no Yaiba is the tulip of the anime world, but I doubt it will fall like tulips did during the tulipmania haha. (I still think a lot of people that like it right now won't remember it in a couple of years, but let's see).

BUT I won't be posting any hateful comments about the franchise or anything, this post is to ask some question as well as to give some insights of how this thing explode all of a sudden.

Anyways talking about numbers, the population of Japan is 120 million right now, right? So how many tickets/attendees would it need to beat Chihiro? 40 million attendees? That would mean around 33% the population of Japan

Chihiro could do it because it was a Ghibli movie AND it was a standalone thing (to watch this movie you would have to have watched the first season of KnY), so it just amazes me the number of people that have seen the movie so far.

Right now it's amazing how this franchise has been beating record after record, but I think KnY is more of a "sprint" franchise (as in most people wanted to see the movie ASAP) so I think a lot of its fanbase has already seen the movie... Just a hunch, but we will see.

Also @corpse do you know if there's any way to watch KnY in Japan other than the broadcasts or buying the BD? (Like is KnY streaming in any platform in Japan?)

I ask because it would be nice to have an idea of how many people actually watched the first season, it's just bonkers that so many people have watched the movie so far..

I found this article, ranking anime rantings from August 5-11 2019, I chose this week because the infamous episode 19 aired that week (Please don't spoil as I haven't watched it and plan to in the near future)
https://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2 ... 11/.150074

And the episode didn't even rank top 10 (I checked and neither did the episodes after this), so obviously the series grew thru word of mouth and I assume most people either watched it on stream later or something.

To end this post just check this out
https://youtu.be/AVxLMdlkYZA?t=563

Is a list of the top 125 best selling Weekly Shonen Jump manga, just 2 years ago KnY had sold 2million copies with 9 volumes, on February 2019 it was reported the manga had sold 3.5million volumes, skip forward to today... It's almost a certainty that just the manga alone will have sold 100million by the end of 2020 if it hasn't yet.

Corpse has said some key factors about why KnY probably exploded in popularity and I want to add my .2 cents, KnY started the same year BLEACH ended and Naruto had ended 2 years before that in WSJ, the only real potential succesor to those series was My Hero Academia, which is more childish in tone, so basically the new generation who didn't read BLEACH, Naruto or One Piece and wanting something new and fresh wanted something.. BTW this is the same generation that made Yokai watch explode in popularity back in 2013, and now is more like Yokai What?

I don't think KnY will fade in popularity like that because obviously the target demographics are different, the Yokai Watch demography just grew up and the franchise couldnt attract new viewers, which I don't think will happen with KnY, and also I think they will make maybe a season per year to milk this thing for a little while.

Edit: I just wanted to point out that this same thing happened to One Piece during the 90s (It starting after the most important titles of JUMP's last generation had ended), the 3 pillars of Jump during the 90s, Yu Yu Hakusho, Slam Dunk and Dragon Ball had ended all in a span of 2 years, to give you an idea of how this decline affected JUMP, in 1995 WSJ had a circulation (its peak) of 6.5 million copies per week, by 1998 its circulation was 3.6 million copies per week, almost half of its circulation just 3 years prior!

After 1996 the only real flagship figthing shonen was Rurouni Kenshin (Samurai X), other important series would start that year like Hoshin Engi and Yu-Gi-Oh!, and one year after that One Piece started and the rest is history, it broke the record of Slam Dunk's most printed volume (One of the few records Kimetsu hasn't managed to beat, I personally hope it doesn't haha and One Piece's record of first print of 4.05 million remains One Piece's record).

I just wanted to point out that it was kind of similar how Kimetsu and One Piece shared some circumstances surrounding their success, but ONE PIECE was a clear success since its very beginning, it always ranked 1st in the TOC (Basically Jump readers vote for their favorite manga in the magazine's roster of around 15 weekly manga) while Kimetsu had a rough 1st year, it was never in peril of cancellation (maybe in it's very early days) but by its 2nd year it was obvious KnY was going to stay in the magazine as a pseudo hit (maybe it could get to sell half a million volumes with an anime, that's the prediction every one who analizes Jump manga, myself included would have made back in 2017, even 2018).

BTW you can watch this video if you are interested in how Kimetsu (And other manga polled in their WSJ runs):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=goTkB-E ... el=DATALab
(E.g. If you want just info on Kimetsu skip to 9:24, Kimetsu started on February 2016)

I hope this post gave you guys some insight of KnY's exponential growth, there literally has never been anything like it in the history of Weekly Shonen Jump (heck.. in the history of Japanese media.. or even dare I say.. in the history of media (In general, not Japan only)?? Like really, I don't think even the Song of Ice and Fire books or Harry Potter books sold 30x after their adaptations? I know that HP's 4th book sold 3million copies in 2 days -this was before the movies- the first book released after the movies sold 5million copies in 3 days in 1 day, so that would mean around 3-4x increment.)

Guys I know this is a box office forum, sorry if my post got a little derailed, and I won't be posting more about these kind of info, just wanted to share some more info on the franchise

Welcome to the forum, rija.

I can, and will, answer your questions, but it'll have to be in the morning (~7/8 hours from this post).

But just a quick response since it's related to the box-office and can be answered briefly. Japan has around 126 million people (population is in decline), and Demon Slayer will basically just need to beat Chihiro's (Spirited Away) 23.5 million admissions in order to also beat it in gross.

There's been almost no inflation in Japan for the past 25 years, and theaters only recently (2014) increased ticket prices slightly, so while ticket prices are a little higher today, the average ticket price is a mere 5/6% higher now than way back in 1993. Therefore it's pretty easy to compare films from the past 25 years without having to worry about adjusting for inflation or anything.

Spirited Away ended its run with an average ticket price of ¥1,311.
Demon Slayer, as of this past Sunday, has an average ticket price of ¥1,347 (just 2.8% higher).

I'll respond to the rest of your post in the morning.

Thanks for your quick answer Corpse, also please give a read to my editted post as I added a bit more info about KnY as a franchise that you (And obviously people here in the forum) might find interesting.

Looking forward to your detailed answer

Welcome! Will look forward to your informative contributions like this.

Oricon just released its Weekly chart for Oct 19-25 and the manga sales of Kimetsu no Yaiba is bonkers!

3,688,476 copies sold!!!

Jujutsu Kaisen follows KNY (another good manga and anime- just starting I believe) with 417,599 copies sold!!

Indeed. And that's just physical, of course. And it's been almost a month now since the most recent volume was released, yet it posts ridiculous weekly sales like that.

That puts it at 75.7 million physical copies sold (not shipped, SOLD) for just this year, with 4 weeks left in the Oricon year I think. 300,000 copies away from DOUBLING the previous yearly sales record, which it broke way back in June (maybe July) I think.

Has any book or book series ever sold so many copies in a year anywhere in the world at any time? It doesn't seem likely. I doubt even Harry Potter's yearly sales worldwide in 2007 when the last book was released did that.

Just like how the anime caused the manga sales to reach record levels previously unseen at the beginning of the year (and they were still selling amazingly well even before the movie was released), the movie is likely to have that same effect all over again it seems.

Back to the box-office for now (will reply to you soon, rija), Wednesday certainly delivered. A couple hours left in the day, but few theaters are open after 10pm on the weekdays.

It's up about 43% versus yesterday, and only down 19% versus last week. Second biggest Wednesday ever (openers and holidays included) after its own first Wednesday last week. Its 13th day alone, a regular old weekday, would probably give it a spot on the Top 10 Biggest Opening Weekends chart in any given year. I'll have the estimate and other updates after the day fully concludes.

Yes, it's on Netflix Japan and perhaps other streaming services that are available in the market.



This is because Demon Slayer was a late-night anime (PG12 rating), meaning it aired at midnight (or later) during its original run. Late-night anime don't post high TV ratings. Episode 19 had such an impact though, that it caused the series to trend on Twitter worldwide despite the limited audience, which lead to more and more people looking into it. But this was toward the end of season one (26 episodes), so it gained popularity and this immense success (unlike anything before) AFTER the anime originally aired.




I'm going to use this part of your post to talk about Yo-Kai Watch, and how Demon Slayer is certainly not like that. The only similarity is how quickly they became popular, but it stops there and that level of popularity is much different.

Demon Slayer is monopolizing the market and breaking records--not just breaking records, absolutely obliterating them--on everything it touches. There is nothing, from manga/book sales, to music sales (LiSA), and TV ratings from being rebroadcast in primetime on national TV now (8/9 million+ people are watching it every week now!), that it hasn't utterly shattered. I truly don't believe, and many Japanese users on 5ch agree, that anything has ever achieved this universal level of success in the market before. It's still expanding its reach as well, and will soon enter the gaming market, for example.

Yo-Kai Watch was big, do not undervalue it. However, it was never really the top of anything as it almost exclusively appealed to children under 10... just practically ALL of them. It's estimated that over 90% of Japanese children either saw the first movie and/or owned Yo-Kai Watch toys/games in 2014-2015. The video game sales for example, while they did rival the Pokemon games released around the same time (2012-2015 or so), weren't record breaking or anything and don't really compare to the top selling games. The only area that Yo-Kai Watch may have reached true phenom status were its toy sales for a year or two. So once the children grew a couple years, it lost its only audience.

Demon Slayer has achieved success among the masses, not just a specific demographic or two, and while it may "fade" with time (the source material has ended), we need to wait a few years to see where it stands, it's certainly not going to be a sudden decline, or even a quick one. For the time being, it's actually become a "hashira" (pillar) of the Japanese economy itself.

I'll reply to the more Shounen/Jump related question(s) and discussion in a separate post.

@Corpse I think Detective Conan 23 had second biggest Wednesday(discount day) which was in last year during golden week.

Discount day, Ladies' Day, AND during a holiday week. Nice catch, you're right, at least in admissions.

It definitely had a VERY low average ticket price falling on a discount day that was also on a Ladies' Day, during a holiday week when more students were likely to attend (students also get discounts).

I'll go back to see what I estimated that day to be, but I'm guessing right about ¥500 million. That's going to be right around what Demon Slayer's second Wednesday (unaffected by anything) is today, perhaps a bit higher even.

Went back to May 1st last year. Not only was that day all the mentioned above things (discount day, Ladies' Day, holiday week), it was ALSO declared a national holiday because then Prince Naruhito ascended to the throne to become Emperor, beginning the Reiwa Period.

I estimated that Detective Conan earned ¥545 million that day. I'm giving Demon Slayer an estimated ¥500 million when I post it later (might bump to ¥505/510 million), so I think that's enough of a difference to say Detective Conan 23 will keep the second biggest Wednesday, after Demon Slayer's first Wednesday. And Demon Slayer will take the third biggest Wednesday with today's gross after that.

First, thanks for sharing this for everyone here. I largely knew and understand this information already, but I wouldn't expect it to be casual knowledge or anything, perhaps even among fans of Kimetsu (I'll use Kimetsu when replying to you).

And you're right, there has not been anything comparable to the growth that Kimetsu has achieved in the past year in Japan, ever, and you could certainly make an argument for anything in the world. In just the past year alone in Japan ONLY, it has (easily) outsold A Song of Fire and Ice's worldwide sales after 24 years. I can use so many other crazy examples, but just think about that one there for a minute. The backlog just sold 3.7 million copies last week in Japan. Like...what?

The rate at which it went from an unknown, unsuccessful Jump series/manga in potential danger of being canceled in its first year or two, to growing just enough to get an anime adaptation (note: this doesn't really take much, and is more of a means to boost the manga/magazine sales themselves than a sign of success), to now become the fastest selling manga ever (or book series in general, ever) by a ridiculous margin this past year is astonishing.

Successful anime adaptations do commonly boost manga sales, sometime by a great deal (Attack on Titan, My Hero Academia, The Seven Deadly Sins as some of the best examples of the last decade to get a big boost), but the Kimetsu anime has done so on a totally different level that it's truly hard to believe.

And Kimetsu did debut around the time that key series like Naruto and Bleach ended, same with My Hero Academia and a few other recently successful series, but Kimetsu has taken over the role of key, or pillar series, and has completely reshaped Jump and manga sales around it all by itself.

You mention that One Piece (my favorite, by the way!) still holds the record for highest first-edition print of 4.05 million for a single volume. Kimetsu's latest volume from the first week of this month had a first-print run of 3.7 million (selling 2.2 million of that in 3 days...). It's almost guaranteed, I believe, especially after this movie's historic success let alone the sell-rate of the previous volume, that the final volume releasing in December is going to break that first-print record IF they can publish enough because 3.7 million (which I think it has just about sold in 3 weeks already) isn't going to cut it again.

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥735,000,000 ($7.0 million) / 545,000
10/20 - Tues.: ¥545,000,000 ($5.1 million) / 395,000
10/21 - Wed.: ¥635,000,000 ($6.0 million) / 505,000
10/22 - Thur.: ¥470,000,000 ($4.5 million) / 340,000
10/23 - Fri.: ¥695,000,000 ($6.6 million) / 505,000
10/24 - Sat.: ¥1,500,944,600 ($14.3 million) / 1,115,182
10/25 - Sun.: ¥1,540,504,150 ($14.7 million) / 1,157,654
10/26 - Mon.: ¥580,000,000 ($5.5 million) / 435,000 *est.*
10/27 - Tues.: ¥390,000,000 ($3.7 million) / 285,000 *est.*
10/28 - Wed.: ¥505,000,000 ($4.8 million) / 405,000 *est.*

13-Day Cumulative Total: ¥12,229,232,550 ($116.4 million) / 9,108,442 *est.*

Corpse I thought there are already 100 million copies in circulation since around September?

With digital sales included.

GOMEN!! And Thank you Corpse! That's why you highlighted physical copies I did not catch that

And Wow 12 Billion already! They really might reach 15Billion by the third weekend!