So how much is Thor: Ragnarok likely to make, just $10-12m?

Yep that's pretty much the standard take of MCU movies from Japan.

Yeah, something in that range and it's fine, even "impressive". Neither of the previous Thor films came near the ¥1 billion milestone, and Ragnarok will exceed it a bit (¥1.1-1.3 billion).

A few notes after Saturday admissions:

>High & Low 3: Final Mission will debut in 1st place. Its first day is down about 5% compared to the second film this past August, and will be aiming for ¥325 million (almost $3 million) this weekend.

>IT may be heading for a second weekend increase, defending its second place position, a clear sign that the positive WOM is playing a major role in its surprise success in the market -- it's going to have a very long run.

>Thor: Ragnarok is down about 45% compared to last Saturday, and while a tad harsh, it's respectable in the Marvel/DC series. It'll slip to third place in its second weekend.

>The 60-minute special episode (OVA) of the Is the Order a Rabbit? anime sold ~55% of its available admissions on Saturday. I expect it'll drop significantly tomorrow, but it'll still likely achieve a Top 10 debut despite the limited release.

Thank you Corpse!

I might remember it wrong, but didn't you once claim, that if a movie makes most of the money after and including December, it becomes a "next year release"?

He did mention that before. I asked him that last year as well.

Yes, that's correct. It can all get a bit confusing, so just think of Japan as operating on a December-November calendar, not January to December. Or for a detailed explanation:

If a film released prior to December grosses over ¥1 billion OR earns over 50% of its total after December 1st, it's then considered a release of the following year by Eiren. In This Corner of the World is an example of this rule and will be included as a 2017 film, despite its early November 2016 release.

Another example of this rule having an effect on films is during award season. Films released in late November or in December aren't eligible for awards, such as the Japan Academy Prize, until the following award season (over a year after they're released). A 2017 December release wouldn't be eligible until the 2019 award season, for instance.

Every form of media that's calculated by a sales tracking organization follows a similar December-November calendar schedule. For example, a music album released next month, or even the last week of this month (depending on actual sales), won't be a 2017 release on sales charts -- it'll be counted as a 2018 release instead. The same goes for manga, books, video games, etc..

How's the forecast this weekend looking? Very interested to see how the first animated Godzilla film does.

Godzilla: Planet of Monsters isn't performing very well, but now I don't think it was suppose to be a hit or blockbuster. It was released in 158 theaters, which is less than half of a major release and more inline with a late-night anime film. But it's also only doing average admissions at best at its locations, so interest certainly wasn't high.

It's going to debut in either second or third place, behind IT (climbing to #1 in its third week of release) and maybe High & Low 3 (in its second week).

I'll have some early weekend estimates up later.

Yeah, I was asking, because you don't include CORNER in your 2017 list of top b.o. hits...

I've just been waiting for a final figure to be released. I'll include it in Monday's update, though, considering the year is nearing its end; otherwise, we'll be waiting on Eiren the last week of January for anything.

Weekend Update (After Saturday's Results):

IT is looking at a minuscule decline (down 9% versus last Sat.), and thus will climb to the #1 position in its third weekend of release. It increased in its second weekend, and its third weekend will probably be higher than its opening weekend as well. The film also displayed an incredibly strong second set of weekdays (from very small drops to increases each day versus its first week), so it won't be slowing down anytime soon.

High & Low 3: Final Mission fell over 60% compared to last Saturday, which isn't surprising since the first two films also experienced, expected, large second weekend drops. It'll fall to at least second place, but could fall as low as third place.

Godzilla: Planet of Monsters, Toho's 30th Godzilla film and first in a trilogy of animated films in the franchise (both sequels debut in 2018), had a mediocre start and may debut no higher than ¥100-125 million ($1/1.1 million) over the weekend. Now, the film hasn't been be handled as a blockbuster; instead, its theater count and marketing is more reminiscent of a late-night anime film, so I wouldn't call it a bomb... maybe just underwhelming. Reviews and audience reception appears solid, so we'll have to wait and see how this turns out. Also of note: Shin Godzilla was broadcast on Friday and achieved a 15.2% rating -- notably strong for a live-action film airing.

The Stand-In Thief will see a soft debut, aiming for about ¥100 million (sub-$1 million), maybe a little lower.

Thor: Ragnarok is looking at a third weekend decline in the mid-30s, which would be decent/good for the Marvel/DC superhero genre. The third film in the Thor franchise has already become the highest-grossing film in the series, and will be edging closer to the ¥1 billion milestone after Sunday.

Overall, poor weekends for new debuts (unsurprising, it's November) and strong weekend in terms of holds with every holdovers in the Top 10/15 dropping no more than 35% or so.

Disappointing about Godzilla. Although I recently read in DA VINCI magazine's interview with the directors that it was initially intended as a television series, but Toho wanted a feature after Shin Godzilla's success. It almost seems like the theatrical release was a late decision (or afterthought) to grab a little more money before flooding it to Netflix worldwide.

That sounds accurate.

With the success of IT, I'm currently compiling a list of highest-grossing horror films. I've never had to do this before, since the genre is rarely successful at the box office, so it's proving pretty difficult. Also, the horror genre itself is very broad with action, suspense, thriller, psychological, monster, supernatural, and slasher films possibly falling into the horror category as well.

So, I want some help. I'm going to post my list soon, which I've heavily restricted to what I'd consider a horror film, which is going to leave off a significant number of potential entries. I want anyone reading this to make their own lists of "horror" films that like to add for consideration to be placed on the list. Thanks.

Highest-Grossing Horror Films of All-Time (1980-)

¥7.68 billion ($73.1 million) - The Sixth Sense (1999)
¥3.30 billion ($26.6 million) - Ringu 2 (1999)
¥2.50 billion ($22.9 million) - School Ghost Stories 2 (1996)
¥2.34 billion ($29.4 million) - Lesson of the Evil (2012)
¥2.32 billion ($14.5 million) - School Ghost Stories (1995)
¥1.90 billion ($17.9 million) - Sleepy Hollow (2000)
¥1.78 billion ($14.7 million) - School Ghost Stories 3 (1997)
¥1.75 billion ($14.2 million) - The Ring (2002)
¥1.70 billion ($15.5 million) - The Village (2004)
¥1.70 billion ($6.9 million) - Lifeforce (1985)
¥1.65 billion ($10.2 million) - Mary Shelley's Frankenstein (1995)
¥1.60 billion ($12.9 million) - The Others (2002)
¥1.55 billion ($12.5 million) - Ringu (1998)
¥1.50 billion ($13.7 million) - One Missed Call (2003)
¥1.35 billion ($17.3 million) - Sadako 3D (2012)
¥1.22 billion ($10.5 million) - As the Gods Will (2014)
¥1.10 billion ($9.5 million) - Ju-On: The Grudge 2 (2003)
¥1.02 billion ($10.8 million) - The Complex (2013)
¥1.01 billion ($8.7 million) - One Missed Call 2 (2005)
¥1.00 billion ($9.5 million) - Sadako vs. Kayako (2016)

IT, at the very least, will finish at #6 on this list, and could go as high as #3.

But again, feel free to suggest other films for consideration for this list. There are some biggies missing that I, personally, never really considered horror films such as Gremlins and Ghostbusters.

Also, if anyone has any data on The Exorcist, please share. It hasn't been included in any all-time lists in Japanese articles/sources, but its foreign total ($208 million) suggests it had to earn a significant sum from Japan at the time.

I would consider Red Dragon a horror film, and that amassed $17m back in 2003. And Hannibal Rising made $6.4m. Not that they are too impressive at the box office, but the Saw films are obviously horror. Saw IV made $3.4m back in 2007. It really depends how low you want the grosses to be in order to include more. Though Shutter Island did $16m. I'd consider that horror. It was definitely marketed as a horror/psychological thriller. And what about Signs. Aren't aliens considered part of the science-fiction horror genre?

How about Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street? That made $19m. It's about a serial killer, musical or not. Sticking with Burton, Dark Shadows made $27m. Isn't it about a family of vampires? And Black Swan is pretty scary! That made $27m too.

I'm also surprised not to see Interview with the Vampire, The Blair Witch Project, and The Silence of the Lambs on the list, though I have no idea how well they did in Japan.

There are others, too, that have crossover and did well enough in Japan to feature on this list, but which I guess are not strictly horror (but have horror elements) such as Resident Evil, The Haunted Mansion, Queen of the Damned, Hide and Seek etc. Alien Resurrection did $16m, and the first is definitely considered horror. Maybe you could include the fourth, depending on how horrific you feel it is.

Anyway, some food for thought at least.