I'll reply now actually. Some of the lists (like biggest aggregated weekends) need to wait until the actuals are released for the rest of the top 10. And I need to try and organize the records list a bit since it's getting cluttered in my eyes.

I also think a third weekend decline in the 20-30% range is a good target at the moment, without knowing how the weekday business this week will go or if any other special announcements (like the stage greeting you mentioned) may happen before the weekend. Many third weekends for most of the biggest films in the market tend to decline fairly consistently around 20%, so that can be used as a reference perhaps.

The stage greeting on Saturday, its second one now after its first Saturday, will boost the day, but it'll just be by a bit since it's one set of showtimes nationwide (or it should be). Next Sunday is a national discount day, and since this film is performing as such an insane level, this will lower its average ticket price in its third weekend by a good amount (probably by 10-15%). Most films offset this since they make up the loss by selling considerably more tickets on discount days, but Demon Slayer can't really do that since it's so high already, so the impact will be felt. The third weekend's admissions will be more impressive than its gross.

I'd expect a third weekend, for now, this isn't a prediction yet, near ¥2.5 billion ($23/24 million) but its admissions may remain above, or very close to, 2 million thanks to Sunday.

Thanks you.

Not going to repost that list AGAIN, so I'll go back and edit it instead. And welcome to the forum, too!

It's notable that Sunday came in higher in admissions, but lower in revenue. This can be explained by the typically higher family business Sunday brings in, since tickets for kids are lower. This is important for future estimates.

Those dailies would imply a ¥3.135B weekend, which is different from the other source (by a suspiciously precise 100M rounded). I’ll let the experts sort out which is the most reliable

Saturday was ¥1,500,944,600, not ¥1,594,600,000. I'll go back to edit the lists.

How long often does it take for a movie to stabilize? After one week of big drop (30%), then next week will small drop again?

Most big films, if they're well-received, usually do after three weeks or so. But very well-received films can go from four, five, or six+ weeks before beginning to slow down. 30% isn't a big drop though, it's sort of the normal/good percentage drop.

But it depends greatly on the individual film.

If you ever see me still posting after the time of this post, whatever time that is where all of you are, keep posting this gif at me until I go to bed.



Good night.

Although the stage greeting will only slightly boost its Saturday, I still think its a good marketing decision from the company and since it will only(?) happen at a one set of showtimes, then many will probably rushed to reserved for that particular time period.

And I kinda forgot that next Sunday is national discount day there, so the gross will definitely lower but the admissions will be higher which is still impressive. And given your target gross for its 3rd weekend is near ¥2.5 billion ($23/24 million), then I think:
¥1.15 - ¥1.30 billion - Saturday
¥1.05- ¥1.20 billion - Sunday

And yeah it is not yet certain at this point but we will DEFINITELY keep an eye out for this record-breaking movie.

Just caught up on all the craziness going on with this!

If every there was a "mother of God" box office performance. Jesus.

Because of this insane performance of the Mugen Train movie, I'm hoping they're announcing the next season 2. I think the last arc of the manga might be the next movie. I think it has 22 chapters and this infinity train arc had 16 chapters. Just the 10-day total of Mugen Train proves how phenomenal the franchise is.

Looks like 265k usual locations today. Gross should be about -32% from last week. If that continues, we shall be looking at 2.1Bn weekdays and around 12.85Bn total till Friday.

Re 3rd weekend, Say Saturday will be about 30% down in admits, even if Sunday match the admits of 2nd Sunday, which is quite likely, gross will be 20% down due to discount, so perhaps 2.3Bn 3rd weekend and 15.15Bn total by Sunday.

It is too early to say, but I think Spirited Away is still pretty safe.

With a 2.3Bn 3rd weekend its 3rd weekend would surely be HUGE from Spirited Away and a 30% drop does not spell doom and gloom.

Start from this week, every week it continues to drop like 30% ???

The blog was missing(?) some numbers in the morning from United and Movix though not sure if it was missing or just had low attendance there
This is from Tieba

It just had a huge increase of +35k in 20 minutes so my guess would be there might have been some missing numbers from earlier.

And with the last hours update its already over 265k. The great hold continues then.

Looks like about 20% drop from last monday.

I would expect this sort of daily trend, at least for this week and possibly next week (next Tuesday's holiday may throw the dailies off some though).

Weekdays tend to be very weak in the early morning (school/work), weak in the afternoon (school/work, just a few less), normal in the evening (school out), and strong at night (work out).

Generally, but it can depend on the film, but I believe Demon Slayer will follow this general trend. Therefore, I imagine it's going to be down a lot more in the morning/afternoon versus last week until the evening showings begin where it'll greatly improve and end the day with a better hold than the morning/afternoon was suggesting. After a couple more weeks in release, the weekday-to-weekday % change throughout the day will become more comparable.

Not to mention any missing sales that aren't added until later (that's what that big update was from earlier this evening) due to having to recalculate theaters as they switch between 50/100% capacity on the weekdays, and if they're any crashes also.

Nope.
-19.8%

Welcome back, Jiffy.

Will it have better drop from tue to fri or still the same as this monday drop?

I would imagine either similar, or maybe slightly better holds. It's possible, however, that Thursday and Friday may drop a bit more versus last week as some audiences may want to wait and try to get a seat to one of the Saturday stage greeting shows, or wait until Sunday when tickets are cheaper. It's not lost business, it's just being allocated to a different day.

With this kind of drop, is 28-30B yen still on the table?

The KTV primetime broadcast of episodes 6 & 7 (re-runs) of the anime earned an outstanding 15.1% household rating on Saturday, which is about 8.3 million viewers. They'll continue to broadcast the re-runs in primetime (7-8pm) every Saturday until December 4th.

Season one of the anime ended last year, is already on home video, and has been available for streaming for most of the year. So this number is really, really crazy.

They are 100% going to do another movie, or two. One more at the VERY least, but they could probably get another out of it.

I'm currently up to volume 12 (I collect manga, so I read them as I buy them), so I'm not certain which volumes/arcs lend themselves to fit a movie adaptation timeframe (~120 minutes, or about 6 episodes of content), but they could do something like this:

2019: Season One (26 episodes), which adapted volumes 1-6
2020: First Movie, which adapted volumes 7-8
2021: Season Two (~26 episodes), adapting volumes 9-13
2022: Second Movie, adapting volumes 14-15
2023: Season Three (~26 episodes), adapting volumes 16-21
2024: Third (Final) Movie, adapting the final volumes 22-23

Rough template of potential plans. 3 Seasons, 3 Movies. They'll take it slow to maximize profits since the manga has ended, and the last volume comes out in December.