Corpse, somebody on BOT said Toy Story 4 is losing 30% of its seats due to Weathering with You. Is that even possible for a 2nd weekend of a record-breaking opener?
And if that's true, I'm worried for Aladdin's fate.

The weekend might hit ¥3 billion, but I doubt it comes near any sort of record. The weekend to watch, however, will be August 10-11. This is the weekend before Obon Festival begins, and this year's sees the debut of One Piece Film Stampede and The Lion King.

The last three One Piece films have opened above ¥1 billion, and while this year's is the first one to open on a Friday, it probably has a good chance of doing it again (20th anniversary of the anime). And even if The Lion King doesn't match the success of Aladdin, Beauty and the Beast, Alice in Wonderland, it's still probably going to open pretty well. And then, of course, there is the likely ongoing strength of the July holdovers (Toy Story 4, Weathering With You, Pokemon, Pets 2, Kamen Rider, Archimedes), and then those from the first week of August (Hobbs & Shaw, Dragon Quest). August 10-11 could have record-setting potential.

Yes. Toy Story 4 is losing around 30% of its seating due to Weathering With You taking the biggest screen at every theater. Toy Story 4 didn't take much of a hit in terms of showtimes though, it was just moved off the biggest screen(s).

And it is pretty rare for a film that opened so big to lose the biggest screen at so many theaters (all of them in this case), but Weathering With You is a very special release. Toho secured a deal with every theater chain at the start of July to play the film on their biggest screens, and to begin playing it simultaneously at 9am at all of them, and I doubt it took much to make that deal. It's Shinkai's follow-up to Your Name., the fourth highest grossing film of all time that also sold over 19 million admissions. Only two other films ever released, Howl's Moving Castle and Avatar, had similar circumstances (follow-ups to Spirited Away and Titanic).

This 5-minute trailer began playing at theaters a few weeks ago:



It's very reminiscent of the long-trailer treatment that highlights past works that a new Miyazaki film would receive.

As for Aladdin, it is losing 35-40% of its seating this weekend, but don't be too alarmed. It's been having normal drops for a couple weeks now, and it doesn't really need too many seats at this point in its release. It still has plenty to keep delivering good numbers.

It likely will, and for the best reason possible - helping support Kyoto Animation Studio. I noticed that nearly all of its evening/night showings were selling out today.

I'm going to presume you're aware of the arsonist that set fire to the animation studio... 33 people, the last I saw, have been declared dead now. And unfortunately, that number will probably rise (as it has by the hour) since a doctor can only declare a person dead.

At least the suspect is in custody.

Such a sad day

Horrible news.

Omg....

Corpse how brutal will the drop be for TS4 this weekend?
And do you think Weathering with you will get to 450k on sat or sunday so over TS4's Sunday basicly with out holiday help.

I expect a harsher drop than Dory's 35.7%, which had to face One Piece Gold. Looks like itlk get ¥800M~¥900M fot the weekend.

I don't think Toy Story 4 will have a harsh drop or anything. That said, its weekdays were pretty average, but I think it's just due to opening over the holiday weekend in such a humongous way. I'll wait a bit before making an actual prediction, but I'll go with a second weekend decline around 35% right now. That is fine, though it is a little high. But, really, seeing how high it debuted, it can afford a rough set of weekdays and so-so second weekend hold. Although... its reception has kind of turned a bit mixed it appears, definitely not as strongly received as its predecessor.

Weathering With You did very, very well on Friday (~15% higher than Detective Conan 22, and ~40% higher than Toy Story 4 last week). Friday numbers aren't as widely tracked, but I believe it's a record for a domestic film (or very close), and it's certainly one of the biggest Friday numbers in some time. I'm estimating around ¥425 million ($3.9/$4.0 million).

It'll open at #1 and probably become the FOURTH film to open above ¥1 billion this year, but I have doubts about its opening weekend beating Toy Story 4's opening weekend. Toy Story 4 simply had a ridiculous Sunday -- second biggest of the decade and probably top 5 all-time (no records of this) -- that even if it does beat Toy Story 4's opening Saturday (likely), it's just going to be too difficult matching its Sunday performance without holiday support.

Also, audience scores are strong, almost on par with Your Name. so far, and while it's early, legs are likely going to be great.

Do you think the Kyoto Animation arson will have some effect on overall turnout, perhaps depressing it in any way?

It's probably shutting down, unfortunately. Was the reason of the murder revealed by that vicious person. I hope he/she gets a VERY hostile punishment.

If you mean on Weathering With You, or the box-office itself, highly unlikely. The film is doing excellent so far, and the holdovers look pretty good. Your Name.'s soundtrack was a big hit also back in 2016, and Weathering With You's soundtrack debuted at #1 yesterday and is still there today.

So far, the film is hitting all the right notes and Shinkai may indeed be the modern Miyazaki in terms of cultural and box-office significance. You'd be hard pressed to argue otherwise if we see a ¥15 billion ($140-150 million) or ¥20 billion+ ($200 million+) level performance again.

And the latest Free! film which is in release right now, produced by Kyoto Animation, is seeing big gains due to the tragedy. I believe the film's director, character designer, and key animators were among those killed...

The culprit said the studio stole one of his novels, but he wasn't associated with the studio in any way. He has admitted to starting the fire with intent to kill, and witnesses' say he was yelling "die!" when starting it, so... The death penalty is legal in Japan, and while it's rarely utilized (last time I read was in 2015), this guy could certainly get it given he's taken responsibility for starting the fire, resulting in 33 deaths, along with the witness account(s).

deserves it. Imagine killing people because of copyright.

Honestly, it's not that good. It could mean a sub-¥1B opening. Why was it frontloaded compared to Friday?

The last update is coming. It was strong late night. It'll open over 1 billion unless Sunday declines, which seems doubtful.

Friday was a special simultaneous release nationwide, which boosted the Friday a bit. Saturday is still noticeably higher though.