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 Japan Box-Office: On Hiatus 
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/13-14)
YOUR NAME much stronger in Germany than expected, could approach $1m in Thursday and Sunday showings...

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Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:41 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/13-14)
Corpse, are there any contenders for ¥10 billion this year now that The Last Jedi will not come close?


Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:31 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/13-14)
Probably not, but here are some potential candidates -- very likely ¥5 billion+ earners that should go comfortably higher.

Domestic:
Mirai of the Future -- Hosoda's latest, so it'll likely do very well, but it'd need a huge increase over his previous films to reach ¥10 billion. The good news is that Hosoda and Studio Chizu have become household names by this point, and all of their films have been enjoying sizable increases over the last. It's probably the "most likely" simply due to it having more potential than anything I can think of, but it'll need a stellar audience reception.
Detective Conan: Executor Zero -- This is very unlikely, though the franchise has been increasing every year now for some four or five years, and has recently begun to post incredible numbers. As I said, ¥10 billion is almost certainly too high, but don't be surprised if it does around ¥7 billion and ends up as one of the biggest films of the year.

That's it for Japanese films that I would consider possible contenders. Now, there's still plenty of time for other films to get announced (films aren't announced very early in Japan), and a surprise film could be added to the schedule in the coming weeks/months. Toho usually has one big live-action film planned for the Summer, and I currently don't see one.

Imported:
Incredibles 2 -- Unlikely. It'll do well, I'm sure, but the original wasn't one of Pixar's biggest films in the market, and Pixar sequels haven't performed well in Japan either.
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom -- The first one came close to ¥10 billion, but I'm sure it benefited from nostalgia, so I don't expect this sequel to surpass (or match) it.
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald -- The first film was able to match the box office returns of the lowest-grossing Harry Potter films; however, I'm sure it, too, benefited from nostalgia, so I don't believe it'll surpass or match the success of the original.

There isn't anything in 2018 that looks like it'll reach ¥10 billion, but there are several films (more than just the five above) that should at least reach the ¥5 billion milestone, and if enough do, the year will still be strong.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sun Jan 14, 2018 9:34 pm
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The Incredible Hulk

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/13-14)
I wish Yokai Watch bomb harder and earlier, Level-5 needs a strong omen to go back to Inazuma Eleven.


Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:53 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/13-14)
Why?

Also it does seem like Yokai Watch is falling harder with each entry and while its still doing profitable numbers the series hasn't settled yet in terms of decline. I don't see it lasting as long as it promised with its opening.


Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:24 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/13-14)
Thanks, Corpse. Coco is another film that has a chance of going over ¥5 billion I think.


Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:40 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/13-14)
Will recently announced Japan Academy Prize nomination affect box office?


Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:04 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/13-14)
They can if a film is still in wide release, but the only two that could possibly benefit would be The 8-Year Engagement and Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura. The former achieved Best Actor and Best Actress nominations, so it should see a bit of a boost; while the latter managed to earn nominations in most tech categories, which probably won't provide much of a boost.

All the major nominees are either out of theaters or in very limited release now. Sekigahara and The Third Murderer both achieved 10 nominations, very impressive. I'll post the 41st Japan Academy Prize Nominations sometime this week.

But since the main category for most readers here is probably Best Foreign Language Film, here are this year's nominees:

Dunkirk
Hidden Figures
Beauty and the Beast
Miss Sloane
La La Land

Any of them could win this year, in my opinion. Dunkirk may have the slight edge, though, since Nolan is pretty popular with the Academy. La La Land, however, has both the critical acclaim and box-office (audience reception) to back it up, but I'll stop there since I see a winnable case for each nominee this year.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:21 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/13-14)
Again, here are this year's nominees:

Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan)
Hidden Figures (Theodore Melfi)
Beauty and the Beast (Bill Condon)
Miss Sloane (John Madden)
La La Land (Damien Chazelle)

And here are the past winners:

Best Foreign Language Picture Winners:

2017 - TBA
2016 - Sully (Clint Eastwood) *Eastwood's 6th Win*
2015 - American Sniper (Clint Eastwood)
2014 - Frozen (Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee)
2013 - Les Miserables (Tom Hooper)
2012 - The Intouchables (Eric Toledano, Olivier Nakache)
2011 - The King's Speech (Tom Hooper)
2010 - Avatar (James Cameron)
2009 - Gran Torino (Clint Eastwood)
2008 - The Dark Knight (Christopher Nolan)
2007 - Letters from Iwo Jima (Clint Eastwood)
2006 - Flags of Our Fathers (Clint Eastwood)
2005 - Million Dollar Baby (Clint Eastwood)
2004 - The Last Samurai (Edward Zwick)
2003 - The Pianist (Roman Polanski)
2002 - Monster's Ball (Marc Foster)
2001 - Billy Elliot (Stephen Daldry)
2000 - Dancer in the Dark (Lars von Trier)
1999 - The Sixth Sense (M. Night Shyamalan)
1998 - L.A. Confidential (Curtis Hanson)
1997 - Titanic (James Cameron)
1996 - II Postino (Michael Radford)
1995 - The Shawshank Redemption (Frank Darabont)
1994 - Schindler's List (Steven Spielberg)
1993 - Jurassic Park (Steven Spielberg)
1992 - JFK (Oliver Stone)
1991 - Dances with Wolves (Kevin Costner)
1990 - Field of Dreams (Phil Alden Robinson)
1989 - Die Hard (John McTiernan)
1988 - The Last Emperor (Bernardo Bertolucci)
1987 - Platoon (Oliver Stone)
1986 - Back to the Future (Robert Zemeckis)
1985 - Amadeus (Milos Forman)
1984 - Once Upon a Time in America (Sergio Leone)
1983 - An Officer and a Gentlemen (Taylor Hackford)
1982 - E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (Steven Spielberg)
1981 - Die Blechtrommel (Volker Schlöndorff)
1980 - Kramer vs. Kramer (Robert Benton)
1979 - The Deer Hunter (Michael Cimino)
1978 - Conversation Piece (Luchino Visconti)
1977 - Rocky (John G. Avildsen)

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:38 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (01/13-14)
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(C)2017 Lucasfilm Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

Weekend Actuals (01/13-14)
01 (01) ¥206,595,200 ($1.9 million), -40%, ¥6,538,391,400 ($57.8 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) WK5
02 (02) ¥193,122,300 ($1.7 million), -42%, ¥999,568,800 ($9.0 million), Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox) WK2
03 (04) ¥117,872,700 ($1.1 million), -21%, ¥2,220,544,300 ($19.8 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) WK5
04 (03) ¥113,302,500 ($1.0 million), -32%, ¥2,695,815,600 ($24.0 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) WK6
05 (---) ¥87,121,700 ($784,000), 0, ¥87,121,700 ($784,000), Mazinger Z - Infinity: The Movie (Toei) NEW
06 (05) ¥67,513,600 ($607,000), -45%, ¥1,863,413,300 ($16.5 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho) WK5
07 (06) ¥41,551,500 ($374,000), -40%, ¥150,388,600 ($1.4 million), Chuunibyou demo Koi ga Shitai! -Take on Me (Shochiku) WK2
08 (---) ¥39,503,200 ($355,000), 0, ¥50,503,500 ($454,000), Renegades (Asmik Ace) NEW
09 (07) ¥37,414,700 ($336,000), -36%, ¥1,520,081,400 ($13.7 million), Murder on the Orient Express (Fox) WK6
10 (09) ¥34,683,500 ($312,000), -19%, ¥573,475,400 ($5.1 million), That Is Not a Child But a Minor (Toho) WK4


>Star Wars: The Last Jedi achieves a fifth-consecutive weekend atop the box-office, and while that's impressive, it continues to drop harder than expected. It has fallen pretty far behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens after five weeks in release, after debuting nearly as high (down just 4%) and achieving a comparable second weekend to it as well.

Perhaps poor WOM is having an impact, like it has seemingly in every other market, because it's probably going to finish below ¥8 billion ($70 million) unless it manages to stabilize almost immediately. It's looking at ¥7.5 billion ($67/68 million) right now, which is good, but that's going to be down a harsh 35% versus Episode VII after debuting within 5% of it... It's also assured to come in below all three prequel films, too, and will have to settle as only the fifth highest-grossing film in the Star Wars franchise.

>Kingsman: The Golden Circle retains its position in second place, and has already outgrossed Kingsman: The Secret Service after just two weeks in release -- right on the cusp of reaching the ¥1 billion milestone, too. The Kingsman second outing is aiming for a total around ¥1.75 billion ($15/16 million), up 80-90% versus its predecessor -- very impressive.

>The 8-Year Engagement enjoys one of the best holds this weekend, and probably locked itself up for a total of ¥2.5 billion (~$23 million). It's currently at a multiplier of ~8.5 and will easily exceed a 9, and could even approach/hit a 10. It's not unusual for a film to reach a 10 multiplier if released in mid-December, but it's typically reserved for just one film of the season, and this year may have two.

>Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura holds pretty well, especially considering it was up 20% last weekend. It's very likely to reach the ¥3 billion (~$27 million) milestone now, and should exceed a multiplier of 10 in the process. This is a nice result for dir. Takashi Yamazaki, and for Toho, and continues to solidify himself as one of Japan's most-successful modern directors, both critically and financially.

>Mazinger Z - Infinity: The Movie debuts in fifth place thanks to a very high average ticket price of ¥1,608 ($14.5), and sold 54,194 admissions over the weekend across 152 screens. The sub-¥100 million opening is disappointing, but considering the screen count and Toei's handling of most live-action films, it could have been worse.

>Yo-Kai Watch: Resurrection of the Demon King is down a lot, unsurprisingly post-holidays, and is only going to crawl over the ¥2 billion (~$18 million) milestone. It's going to experience nearly a 40% decline from its predecessor, and unlike the previous sequels in the franchise, it's not going to improve upon the last films' legs either... definitely a worrying sign for the Yo-Kai Watch movie franchise.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:39 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Opening Weekends: 2018
2018 - Top Opening Weekends
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Distributor)

¥1.125 billion ($9.9 million) / 737,467 [937] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)
¥1 billion ↨
¥500 million ↨
¥399.2 million ($3.6 million) / 355,230 [366] - Yo-Kai Watch: Shadowside - Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho)
¥359.2 million ($3.2 million) / 303,089 [331] - Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FINAL: Build & Ex-Aid with Legend Riders (Toei)
¥330.1 million ($2.9 million) / 224,480 [673] - Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox)

¥300 million ↨
¥297.2 million ($2.6 million) / 231,465 [401] - Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho)
¥264.1 million ($2.3 million) / 191,212 [441] - Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.)
¥262.9 million ($2.3 million) / 203,803 [320] - The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku)
¥225.8 million ($2.0 million) / 169,100 [455] - Murder on the Orient Express (Fox)

¥200 million ↨
¥148.8 million ($1.3 million) / 110,618 [334] - Detective in the Bar 3 (Toei)
¥145.9 million ($1.3 million) / 118,798 [059] - Girls und Panzer: The Finale - Part 1 (Showgate)
¥137.2 million ($1.2 million) / 115,215 [281] - That is Not a Child But a Minor (Toho)

¥100 million ↑

Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:40 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Grossing Films: 2018
2018 - Top Opening Weekends
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days In Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥10 billion ↨
¥6.54 billion ($57.8 million) / 4.41 million [31] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)
¥5 billion ↨
¥3 billion ↨
¥2.69 billion ($24.0 million) / 2.15 million [37] - Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho)
¥2.20 billion ($19.8 million) / 1.77 million [30] - The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku)

¥2 billion ↨
¥1.86 billion ($16.5 million) / 1.68 million [30] - Yo-Kai Watch: Shadowside - Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho)
¥1.52 billion ($13.7 million) / 1.20 million [38] - Murder on the Orient Express (Fox)
¥1.23 billion ($11.0 million) / 1.04 million [37] - Kamen Hensei Generations FINAL: Build & Ex-Aid With Legend Riders (Toei)
¥1.09 billion ($9.8 million) / 0.85 million [45] - Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.)

¥1 billion ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:40 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated!
Any chance for the previous two weekend charts?

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Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:27 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated!
Last weekend, yes, all the actuals were released -- I'll post it in the next day or so.

The 12/30-31 weekend, sort of... I can post what's available if you want. Only two films in the Top 10 had their weekend actual released, with three others receiving estimates, thus leaving five films on that weekend without any official estimate or actual. New Year's Eve landing on Sunday, followed by New Year, and then two Bank Holidays all in succession halted everything.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:58 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated!
Yes, please! Thanks so much for your work! :)

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Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:14 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated!
Just want to say Thank you to Corpse for all your hard efforts over the last few years. For the past few weeks I've been forwarding your posts onto BoxOfficeTheory (my primary forum) whilst crediting you each time. I can say that many people from BOT are very grateful for your reports.

I'm going to try my best to keep forwarding them to BOT to ensure that your hard efforts are appreciated by many more!

Thank you so much, honestly. :wub2:


Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:33 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated!
Of course, guys.

And feasby007, feel free to post some here in the future. :thumbsup:

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:24 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: 41st Japan Academy Prize Nominations
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41st Japan Academy Prize Nominations

Picture of the Year:
-Let Me Eat Your Pancreas
-The Third Murderer
-Sekigahara
-Miracles of the Namiya General Store
-Flower and Sword

Animation of the Year:
-Fireworks, Should We See It from the Side or the Bottom?
-Napping Princess
-Mary and the Witch's Flower
-Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter
-The Night Is Short, Walk On Girl

Director of the Year:
-Kiyoshi Kurosawa – Before We Vanish
-Hirokazu Kore-eda – The Third Murder
-Tetsuo Shinohara – Flower and Sword
-Masato Harada – Sekigahara
-Ryūichi Hiroki – Miracles of the Namiya General Store

Screenplay of the Year:
-Hirokazu Kore-eda – The Third Murder
-Hiroshi Saitō – Miracles of the Namiya General Store
-Yoshiko Morishita – Flower and Sword
-Yoji Yamada and Emiko Hiramatsu – What a Wonderful Family! 2
-Tomoko Yoshida – Let Me Eat Your Pancreas

Outstanding Performance by a Lead Actor:
-Yo Oizumi – The Last Shot in the Bare
-Junichi Okada – Sekigahara
-Takeru Satoh – The 8-Year Engagement
-Masaki Suda – Wilderness: Part One
-Tatsuya Fujiwara – Memoirs of a Murderer

Outstanding Performance by a Lead Actress:
-Yū Aoi – Birds Without Names
-Yui Aragaki – Mixed Doubles
-Tao Tsuchiya – The 8-Year Engagement
-Masami Nagasawa – Before We Vanish
-Yuriko Yoshitaka – Yurigokoro

Outstanding Performance by a Supporting Actor:
-Toshiyuki Nishida – Miracles of the Namiya General Store
-Masahiko Nishimura – What a Wonderful Family! 2
-Ryuhei Matsuda – The Last Shot in the Bar
-Nijirō Murakami – Mukoku
-Kōji Yakusho – The Third Murder
-Kōji Yakusho – Sekigahara

Outstanding Performance by a Supporting Actress:
-Machiko Ono – Miracles of the Namiya General Store
-Keiko Kitagawa – The Last Shot in the Bar
-Yui Natsukawa – What a Wonderful Family! 2
-Suzu Hirose – The Third Murder
-Hiroko Yakushimaru – The 8-Year Engagement

Outstanding Achievement in Music:
-Keiichi Suzuki – Outrage Coda
-Harumi Fūki – Sekigahara
-Takatsugu Muramatsu – The 8-Year Engagement
-Ludovico Einaudi – The Third Murder
-Jin – Kiseki: Sobito of That Day

Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography:
-Tokushō Kikumura – Flower and Sword
-Kōzō Shibasaki – Destiny: The Tale of Kamakura
-Takahide Shibanushi – Sekigahara
-Mikiya Takimoto – The Third Murder
-Masashi Chikamori – What a Wonderful Family! 2

Outstanding Achievement in Lighting Direction:
-Tatsuya Osada – Flower and Sword
-Nariyuki Ueda – Destiny: The Tale of Kamakura
-Takaaki Miyanishi – Sekigahara
-Norikiyo Fujii – The Third Murder
-Kōichi Watanabe – What a Wonderful Family! 2

Outstanding Achievement in Art Direction:
-Tomoko Kurata – Flower and Sword
-Tomoko Kurata and Hisayuki Kobayashi – What a Wonderful Family! 2
-Anri Jōjō – Destiny: The Tale of Kamakura
-Tetsuo Harada – Sekigahara
-Tomoyuki Maruo and Rihito Nakagawa – Miracles of the Namiya General Store

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Recording:
-Satoshi Ozaki – Flower and Sword
-Kazumi Kishida – What a Wonderful Family! 2
-Yoshifumi Kureishi – Outrage Coda
-Kazuhiko Tomita – The Third Murder
-Masato Yano – Sekigahara

Outstanding Achievement in Film Editing:
-Hirohide Abe – Flower and Sword
-Iwao Ishii – What a Wonderful Family! 2
-Takeshi Kitano and Yoshinori Ota – Outrage Coda
-Hirokazu Kore-eda – The Third Murder
-Masato Harada – Sekigahara

Outstanding Foreign Language Film:
-Dunkirk
-Hidden Figures
-Beauty and the Beast
-Miss Sloane
-La La Land

Newcomer of the Year:
-Ayami Nakajo – Let's Go, Jets!
-Minami Hamabe – Let Me Eat Your Pancreas
-Takumi Kitamura – Let Me Eat Your Pancreas
-Ryoma Takeuchi – Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High

The Ceremony will will take place on March 2, 2018 at the Grand Prince Hotel New Takanawa in Tokyo, Japan.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:57 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: 41st Japan Academy Prize Nominations
41st Japan Academy Prize Nomination Tally:

10 - The Third Murderer
10 - Sekigahara

8 - Flower and Sword
8 - What a Wonderful Family! 2

5 - Miracles of the Namiya General Store
4 - The 8-Year Engagement

3 - Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura
3 - Outrage Coda
3 - The Last Shot in the Bar
2 - Let Me Eat Your Pancreas

1 - Mukoku
1 - Wilderness: Part One
1 - Kiseki: Sobito of That Day
1 - Confessions of a Murderer
1 - Before We Vanish
1 - Birds Without Names
1 - Yurigokoro
1 - Fireworks, Should We See It from the Side or the Bottom?
1 - Napping Princess
1 - Mary and the Witch's FLower
1 - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter
1 - The Night Is Short, Walk On Girl


Tally excludes Newcomer of the Year Category.

Interesting Notes Regarding the Nominations:

>Koji Yakusho was nominated for Outstanding Supporting Actor for two separate roles; one for his role in Sekigahara, and the other for The Third Murderer -- the two most nominated films this year.
>Let Me Eat Your Pancreas was nominated for Picture of the Year despite only being nominated in one other category -- Screenplay of the Year. Both of the film's leads earned Newcomer of the Year nominations, however.
>Kiyoshi Kurosawa was nominated for Director of the Year for Before We Vanish, which was also the only category the film received a nomination in.
>Yoji Yamada, 86, becomes the oldest director to have a film nominated in more than one category for his 83rd theatrical release, What a Wonderful Family! 2, which received 8 nominations.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:03 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/20-21)
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Weekend Forecast (01/20-21)
01 (---) ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥235,000,000 ($2.1 million), Geostorm (Warner Bros.) NEW
02 (01) ¥147,000,000 ($1.3 million), -29%, ¥6,850,000,000 ($60.6 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) WK6
03 (---) ¥140,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥160,000,000 ($1.4 million), Paddington 2 (Kino Films) NEW
04 (---) ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), The Lies She Loved (Toho) NEW
05 (02) ¥124,000,000 ($1.1 million), -36%, ¥1,250,000,000 ($11.2 million), Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox) WK3
06 (03) ¥93,000,000 ($840,000), -21%, ¥2,425,000,000 ($21.6 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) WK6
07 (04) ¥87,000,000 ($780,000), -23%, ¥2,875,000,000 ($25.6 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) WK7
08 (05) ¥48,000,000 ($430,000), -45%, ¥190,000,000 ($1.7 million), Mazinger Z - Infinity: The Movie (Toei) WK2
09 (06) ¥47,000,000 ($420,000), -30%, ¥1,950,000,000 ($17.3 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho) WK6
10 (08) ¥22,000,000 ($200,000), -42%, ¥1,575,000,000 ($14.1 million), Murder on the Orient Express (Fox) WK7


>Geostorm seems set to debut atop the box-office unless it experiences a poor Sunday. The box-office is cooling down now that we're in mid-January, so it doesn't take too much to achieve a #1 opening, but I have to say I never would have predicted a film like this one could have done it given disaster films are generally poorly received at the box-office in Japan these days (and Star Wars should have been big enough to remain there for another week or two, but alas). Japan is likely to be one of the top 5 international markets for the film, as well.

>Star Wars: The Last Jedi will probably be dethroned in its sixth weekend of release, but should post a solid hold, although it's a bit too late to generate much revenue at this point of its release. A great start; a disappointing finish.

>Paddington 2 and The Lies She Loved will be vying for the Top 3, and it's really a coin-toss based on pre-sales and current ticket sales. I'm expecting the former to enjoy a nice boost on Sunday thanks to its family appeal, so I'm giving it the edge.

>The 8-Year Engagement and Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura are poised for another weekend of good/great holds, perhaps due slightly in part to their Japan Academy Prize nominations this past week. Both films are going to exceed multipliers of 10, and in my opinion, achieved the most-successful performances from December.

The tenth spot is wide open for a number of films. The position should only require no more than ¥25 million, so we could see a surprise entry in the Top 10 this weekend.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:03 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/20-21)
Hey Corpse how much did the original Paddington make there and how was it received there? Any predictions on early WoM and legs for the sequel?


Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:03 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/20-21)
The first film opened to ¥129.4 million ($1.1 million) on 99,913 admissions, and finished with about ¥675 million ($6.1 million) on ~530,000 admissions. Those were some fairly disappointing legs, honestly, and surprisingly so. However, this result was an extraordinarily strong result for independent distributor, Kino Films. To my knowledge, they've never had a ¥1 billion film, or any comes close to that mark, so Paddington is surely one of their biggest films ever.

Based on Weekend Estimates, which I'll post here soon, the sequel more or less matched the original's debut this weekend (my initial estimate is within 3,000 admissions) . It's too early to really discuss WOM, which typically takes at least a full week or two to have an impact, but I doubt legs will differ much.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:25 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/20-21)
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(C)2018 WARNER BROS. ENTERTAINMENT INC., SKYDANCE PRODUCTIONS, LLC AND RATPAC-DUNE ENTERTAINMENT LLC

Weekend Estimates (01/20-21)
01 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥285,000,000 ($2.6 million), Geostorm (Warner Bros.) NEW
02 (01) ¥136,000,000 ($1.2 million), -34%, ¥6,850,000,000 ($60.6 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) WK6
03 (---) ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), The Lies She Loved (Toho) NEW
04 (---) ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥145,000,000 ($1.3 million), Paddington 2 (Kino Films) NEW
05 (02) ¥114,000,000 ($1.0 million), -41%, ¥1,250,000,000 ($11.2 million), Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox) WK3
06 (03) ¥86,000,000 ($775,000), -27%, ¥2,425,000,000 ($21.6 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) WK6
07 (04) ¥76,000,000 ($685,000), -33%, ¥2,875,000,000 ($25.6 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) WK7
08 (05) ¥45,000,000 ($405,000), -48%, ¥190,000,000 ($1.7 million), Mazinger Z - Infinity: The Movie (Toei) WK2
09 (06) ¥41,000,000 ($370,000), -39%, ¥1,950,000,000 ($17.3 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho) WK6
10 (10) ¥21,000,000 ($190,000), -39%, ¥625,000,000 ($5.5 million), That Is Not a Child But a Minor (Toho) WK5


>Geostorm easily take the #1 spot, and has achieved quite the respectable debut based on estimates. And based on this estimate, it has a solid chance of exceeding the ¥1 billion ($9/10 million) milestone, which will make Japan possibly its second biggest international market.

Disaster films have become a genre of the past, and while this debut certainly pales in comparison to those from the late 1990's and 2000's, I believe this is the biggest opening for a disaster film since... 2012 (the film), so in 9 years? I'll do some research when actuals are released to confirm this.

>Star Wars: The Last Jedi falls to second place in its sixth-weekend, experiencing yet another mediocre decline... I don't think it'll have enough in it to even reach ¥7.5 billion, probably stalling around ¥7.3 billion ($64/65 million).

A finish over ¥7 billion is strong for almost any film, but this is a rare case where I'd rule it disappointing considering it'll be down 35%+ versus Episode VII, and even down 20% versus the lowest-grossing film in the Prequel Trilogy, Episode III. Clearly, WOM had a big impact here, so much so that a lot of franchise fans apparently decided to skip this entry despite its opening weekend nearly being identical to its predecessors.

>The Lies She Loved appears to have earned a Top 3 debut, though we'll have to wait for actuals considering how close it is. So-so debut here, pretty standard for a film like this during this time of year.

>Paddington 2 basically matches the debut of the original based on estimates, and actuals will tell whether it ends up opening above or under it. Either way, solid debut, and nice to see it largely retaining its audience from the first film.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:07 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (01/20-21)
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Weekend Actuals (01/20-21)
01 (---) ¥242,170,600 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥304,060,300 ($2.7 million), Geostorm (Warner Bros.) NEW
02 (---) ¥159,107,500 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥159,107,500 ($1.4 million), The Lies She Loved (Toho) NEW
03 (01) ¥141,052,300 ($1.3 million), -32%, ¥6,846,927,000 ($60.6 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) WK6
04 (02) ¥119,769,000 ($1.1 million), -38%, ¥1,278,897,700 ($11.5 million), Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox) WK3
05 (---) ¥117,000,500 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥137,022,900 ($1.2 million), Paddington 2 (Kino Films) NEW
06 (03) ¥87,691,300 ($791,000), -26%, ¥2,419,453,400 ($21.6 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) WK6
07 (04) ¥78,671,500 ($710,000), -31%, ¥2,869,898,200 ($25.6 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) WK7
08 (05) ¥47,459,500 ($428,000), -46%, ¥192,612,900 ($1.7 million), Mazinger Z - Infinity: The Movie (Toei) WK2
09 (06) ¥44,327,500 ($400,000), -35%, ¥1,919,718,200 ($17.1 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho) WK6
10 (07) ¥22,590,400 ($204,000), -46%, ¥193,264,100 ($1.7 million), Chuunibyou demo Koi ga Shitai! -Take on Me (Shochiku) WK3
11 (10) ¥21,661,900 ($196,000), -38%, ¥617,785,300 ($5.5 million), That Is Not a Child But a Minor (Toho) WK5


>Geostorm easily takes the #1 spot, selling a solid 170,593 admissions over the weekend frame across 584 screens (and 217,353 admissions since Friday). Overall, this is a respectable debut, one that should result in a total above the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone, making Japan its second biggest international market behind China.

Disaster films have largely become a movie genre of the past, and while this debut does pale in comparison to disaster films from the late 1990's and 2000's, this just so happens to be the biggest opening weekend for one since 2009's 2012. Very impressive.

>The Lies She Loved not just managed a Top 3 debut, but even came in second place over the weekend; it sold a fair 116,803 admissions across 285 screens. This opening is nothing to get excited about, and is pretty much on par with smaller, off-season, live-action films in the market, but it's decent enough for this time of year.

>Star Wars: The Last Jedi falls to third place already in its sixth-weekend, delivering a so-so decline when it really needed a stronger hold by this point of its release. Episode VIII in the franchise is going to exceed ¥7 billion without any problems, and while that's strong for the majority of films, I'd consider it a rare disappointment this time considering how low it is compared to its predecessors.

For example, it's going to end up 37/38% behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens, and also down about 20% compared to the lowest-grossing film in the prequel trilogy, Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith, despite achieving a debut pretty much on par with all its predecessors. It took a couple weeks into its release, but clearly negative WOM is at play here given the relative consistency of the franchise in the past.

>Kingsman: The Golden Circle is holding decently, and looks to nearly double the gross of Kingsman: The Secret Service.

>Paddington 2 unfortunately slips a bit and had to settle for a fifth place debut. The highly-acclaimed sequel sold 93,103 admissions over the weekend on 382 screens (and 109,761 admissions since Friday). This opening is 7% below that of the original, one of Kino Film's highest-grossing films ever, which seems good to me, and legs just might be better this time around since the original surprisingly didn't have much staying power. We'll see.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:39 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Opening Weekends: 2018
2018 - Top Opening Weekends
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Distributor)

¥1.125 billion ($9.9 million) / 737,467 [937] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)
¥1 billion ↨
¥500 million ↨
¥399.2 million ($3.6 million) / 355,230 [366] - Yo-Kai Watch: Shadowside - Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho)
¥359.2 million ($3.2 million) / 303,089 [331] - Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FINAL: Build & Ex-Aid with Legend Riders (Toei)
¥330.1 million ($2.9 million) / 224,480 [673] - Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox)

¥300 million ↨
¥297.2 million ($2.6 million) / 231,465 [401] - Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho)
¥264.1 million ($2.3 million) / 191,212 [441] - Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.)
¥262.9 million ($2.3 million) / 203,803 [320] - The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku)
¥242.2 million ($2.2 million) / 170,593 [584] - Geostorm (Warner Bros.)
¥225.8 million ($2.0 million) / 169,100 [455] - Murder on the Orient Express (Fox)

¥200 million ↨
¥159.1 million ($1.4 million) / 116,803 [285] - The Lies She Loved (Toho)
¥148.8 million ($1.3 million) / 110,618 [334] - Detective in the Bar 3 (Toei)
¥145.9 million ($1.3 million) / 118,798 [059] - Girls und Panzer: The Finale - Part 1 (Showgate)
¥137.2 million ($1.2 million) / 115,215 [281] - That is Not a Child But a Minor (Toho)
¥117.0 million ($1.1 million) / 93,103 [382] - Paddington 2 (Kino Films)

¥100 million ↑

Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:39 pm
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