Your Name made 160 million yen from Monday to Sunday
Declining from 212 million yen last week and 267 million yen in the previous two weeks.
At this rate, we have to talk about surpassing Frozen instead of surpassing Titanic.

I thought it would have a better drop after seeing the almost flat Saturday. But a 25% weekly drop (on top of the 20% drops last 3 weeks) doesn't bode well for surpassing even Frozen. If this continues, it could miss 25 billion yen.

Hope Valentines and Japan Academy Prize help Your Name
But yes, even the chance of crossing 25 billion yen is fade away

*Frozen end tracking at 25.45 billion (28 weeks) while revised figure is 25.48 billion
**Spirited Away was 28.4 billion at week 21 and report 500 million short of 30 billion at week 34, and then end tracking at 30.4 billion (when?) and revised figure at 30.8 billion

So now you want to go back fifteen years in past to correct Spirited Away's figure

These are already corrected by many users here, including Corpse.
I'm just repeating it in case someone forget why there are missing data.

The correct figures for frozen and Spirited Away are ¥25.48 B and ¥30.8 B respectively, confirmed by Corpse himself

Yes, I completely agree as I noted under the graph.
The graph is comparing between ordinary box office tracks though. As it should be a while before Toho release Your Name revised figure.

The revised figure might not make much difference tho.

Your Name.'s weekly performance from here on depends on if it sweeps at the 40th Japan Academy Prize Ceremony in three weeks (at least taking home Best Director, Best Screenplay, and Best Animation), and if it's still in the Top 10 come mid-March (it'll achieve the Most-Consecutive Weeks in the Top 10 record in two weeks) to benefit from Spring Break a week later.

If all of that goes well for it, it could remain in wide release through April for Toho to give it a Golden Week boost at the end of the month. It really, really needs a post-Japan Academy Prize boost though because March, as usual, has many notable wide releases that could bump it out of the Top 10, and leaving the Top 10 can be dangerous.

Continuing to remain in the Top 10 is very important since it's extremely rare for any film to lose theaters or many screens while they're in the Top 10, even if it's for a film that's been in the Top 10 and in wide release for over 6 months. The DVD release isn't even until October, either, a full 14 months after its release, so Toho has plenty of time to keep it playing in wide release, too.

Weekend Actuals will be posted soon.

Corpse, do you know why Jungle Book didn't have the same kind of reception in Japan it had in other countries? I see it only made $23 million, which is not very impressive considering Japan is usually the #1 or #2 OS market for Disney. I was quite shocked that Japan was one of the few major markets that actually decreased significantly from Cinderella or Maleficent even though the trend in other countries was the opposite.

On a related note, I'm looking forward to seeing how Beauty and the Beast will perform in Japan. I have a feeling it could be the highest grossing live-action Disney remake so far. A lot of things going for it. A faithful adaption of a beloved animated film, musical format, starring Emma Watson, etc. I think the WOM will be excellent.

Jungle book did perform pretty well in majority of asian markets, with the exception of few.
CHINA- $150 M (Second highest grossing Disney's film of the year)
INDIA- $39 M (highest grossing foreign film ever)
JAPAN- $23 M
SOUTH KOREA- $19 M
UAE- $9 M (Probably in Top-10 of all time)

I'm more excited about Ghost in the shell, it's bound to pull big numbers when Scarlett Johansson is there and unlike Japanese live-action adaptation, Hollywood got enough budget to utilise every elements to make it decent enough for spending couple of hours, also it's one of the most anticipated film of the year despite all the whitewashing controversy, I don't get how the community expect an unknown asian face in the female lead which would obviously take away half of the box-office potential, let's not talk about that.
The trailer for beauty and the beast also looks impressive and considering the huge number of Disney's cult followers, there's a high possibility for it becoming their biggest blockbuster ever.

JAPAN- 21st April, US- 17th March (Beauty and the beast)
JAPAN-7th April, US- 31st MARCH (Ghost in the shell)

if anyone can confirm the release info.^^

The Jungle Book did underperform, but I don't think expectations were particularly high either. It probably lost some family/children appeal by looking rather "dark", and since the source material isn't exactly popular, I don't see the appeal it would have had for teens/adults/seniors either, especially since July/August are the most crowded months of the year.

So, basically, it didn't appeal to any demographics, in my opinion, and probably only earned what it did thanks to being released during Obon Festival.

The live-action Disney Princess movies are always going to perform better because females represent over 60% of the moviegoer audience in Japan, and have been based on very well-known source material. As such, look for Beauty and the Beast to do very, very well. It'll probably outgross Maleficent and Cinderella, but Alice in Wonderland will likely be out of reach unless it really, really breaksout.

Those dates are correct. But don't get too excited about Ghost in the Shell's potential in Japan quite yet. Japanese audiences typically shun Hollywood's portrayal of their source materials, even in regards to films that simply draw inspiration from Japanese sources (e.g. Pacific Rim), so it could bomb or disappoint.

On eiga.com, it's not even among the Top 100 Most-Searched Films at the moment. It's still almost 2 months away, so it could surface and begin to climb, but currently, early indicators aren't good.

Its release date, being only a week after the U.S., is also a bit concerning. Most imported films (unless it's a proven source already) benefit from a delayed release in Japan, and there are many, many examples of films being released too soon in the market that could have, possibly, performed much better months later. The April 7th release date also means it has to deal with all the mid/late April films being released ahead of Golden Week (Late April/Early May), so if it doesn't open very high, it'll be an easy target for screen/showtime cuts to make room for all the major releases that follow it.

I don't want to sound super-negative about its hopes in Japan, but don't be surprised if it only earns $10/20 million.

(C)2016 川原 礫／ＫＡＤＯＫＡＷＡ アスキー・メディアワークス刊／SAO MOVIE Project

Weekend Forecast (02/18-19)
01 (---) ¥450,000,000 ($4.0 million), 0, ¥450,000,000 ($4.0 million), Sword Art Online: Ordinal Scale (Aniplex) NEW
02 (01) ¥241,000,000 ($2.1 million), -40%, ¥1,050,000,000 ($9.3 million), Partners: The Movie IV (Toei) WK2
03 (---) ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), One Week Friends (Shochiku) NEW
04 (02) ¥106,000,000 ($930,000), -37%, ¥400,000,000 ($3.5 million), Survival Family (Toho) WK2
05 (03) ¥104,000,000 ($920,000), -35%, ¥875,000,000 ($7.7 million), Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children (Fox) WK3
06 (04) ¥100,000,000 ($885,000), -36%, ¥1,675,000,000 ($14.8 million), Doctor Strange (Disney) WK4
07 (05) ¥86,000,000 ($760,000), -31%, ¥1,100,000,000 ($9.7 million), Kiseki: Sobito of That Day (Toei) WK4
08 (06) ¥66,000,000 ($585,000), -22%, ¥24,325,000,000 ($230.4 million), Your Name. (Toho) WK26
09 (07) ¥44,000,000 ($390,000), -30%, ¥2,125,000,000 ($18.2 million), In This Corner of the World (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) W15
10 (08) ¥35,000,000 ($310,000), -39%, ¥330,000,000 ($2.9 million), The 100th Love With You (Asmik Ace) WK3

>Sword Art Online: Ordinal Scale sold through ~27% of its available admissions for Saturday in advance, and will very likely exceed a 50% sell-through rate for the day, maybe even 60%. It'll easily debut at #1 despite the low screen count (151), so how high can it go? The SAO Movie Project, based on the very popular multi-media hit series, is bound to be one of Aniplex's biggest hits ever.

>One Week Friends, the live-action adaptation of the manga series, debuts this weekend and is looking in good shape. It'll make the Top 3, but Partners IV will keep it from earning the silver over the weekend.

>Doctor Strange and Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children are the only imported films in the Top 10, and both will continue their solid performances, respectively. Marvel's latest is climbing closer to that ¥2 billion milestone, a notable mark for any DC/Marvel film to reach. And Tim Burton's latest is going to comfortably exceed the ¥1 billion milestone by the end of the month, giving Burton another successful film in the market.

>Your Name. will achieve its 26th-consecutive week in the Top 10, the half-year milestone, tying up the record set by Spirited Away. Next weekend is quite weak, the calm before the Spring Box Office Season begins next month, so a 27th-consecutive week, at the very least, is almost guaranteed as well, thus setting a new record.

Love the analysis.

Thanks for the reply corpse, indeed a great analysis and I had high hopes since the Matrix series did pretty well in Japan and it's partially inspired by GITS, but going by the past performance of Edge of Tomorrow and Pacific Rim, even $20 M won't be bad at all, let's see how the adaptation is.

In the recent trend, Japan has been the last market for some of the big films;
Doctor strange, Miss peregrine, Moana, Kubo, la la land, XXX:CC, The great wall, arrival, sing and even the fifth installment of Pirate of the Caribbean, does it give an extra edge over releasing so late or it has to do with the distributors and quota for foreign films?

SAO also debut this week in my country, but it's very quiet (compared to the soon to be release Silent Voice and In this Corner)

Delayed releases almost always play out better in the market. The only time it doesn't is when a film totally bombs critically and commercially in the U.S. and elsewhere before reaching Japan. And the bigger of a success a film is elsewhere before reaching Japan, often results in returns well-beyond expectations.

As for quotas, I not familiar with that. I don't even think there is a quota, really, given nearly everything gets a theatrical release in Japan, even if it's a very limited run. You only see 2 or 3 films make the Top 10 each week on average, with that number sometimes going as high as 5 or 6 on major weekends, but there's regularly 15-20+ films scheduled for release every single weekend.

A few years ago, Japan saw more films released than anywhere in the world after India.

(C)2016 川原 礫／ＫＡＤＯＫＡＷＡ アスキー・メディアワークス刊／SAO MOVIE Project

Weekend Estimates (02/18-19)
01 (---) ¥450,000,000 ($4.0 million), 0, ¥450,000,000 ($4.0 million), Sword Art Online: Ordinal Scale (Aniplex) NEW
02 (01) ¥226,000,000 ($2.0 million), -44%, ¥1,025,000,000 ($9.1 million), Partners: The Movie IV (Toei) WK2
03 (---) ¥160,000,000 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥160,000,000 ($1.4 million), One Week Friends (Shochiku) NEW
04 (03) ¥111,000,000 ($980,000), -30%, ¥875,000,000 ($7.7 million), Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children (Fox) WK3
05 (02) ¥109,000,000 ($965,000), -34%, ¥400,000,000 ($3.5 million), Survival Family (Toho) WK2
06 (04) ¥99,000,000 ($875,000), -37%, ¥1,675,000,000 ($14.8 million), Doctor Strange (Disney) WK4
07 (05) ¥83,000,000 ($735,000), -33%, ¥1,100,000,000 ($9.7 million), Kiseki: Sobito of That Day (Toei) WK4
08 (06) ¥73,000,000 ($645,000), -13%, ¥24,325,000,000 ($230.4 million), Your Name. (Toho) WK26
09 (07) ¥46,000,000 ($405,000), -26%, ¥2,125,000,000 ($18.2 million), In This Corner of the World (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) W15
10 (08) ¥37,000,000 ($325,000), -37%, ¥330,000,000 ($2.9 million), The 100th Love With You (Asmik Ace) WK3

>Sword Art Online: Ordinal Scale sold through ~52% of its available weekend tickets, easily securing itself the #1 debut on just 151 screens. The SAO Movie Project, based on the popular multi-media hit series, will become distributor Aniplex's biggest opener by far, and will likely go on to become their biggest film of all-time as well. It's difficult to project where a film like this may be heading, but at the very least, the ¥2 billion (~$20 million) mark should be exceeded.

>One Week Friends, the live-action adaptation of the manga series, debuts within expectations in a solid third place position. If it can maintain enough screens through the end of March, it might have a shot at reaching the ¥ billion (~$10 million) milestone with the boost from Spring Break.

>Your Name. achieves its 26th-consecutive week in the Top 10, the half-year milestone, tying up the record set by Spirited Away. Next weekend is quite weak, the calm before the Spring Box Office Season begins next month, so a 27th-consecutive week, at the very least, is almost guaranteed as well, thus setting a new record.