Hmm i c, that was indeed a brilliant hold by OST.

(C)Nintendo・Creatures・GAME FREAK・TV Tokyo・ShoPro・JR Kikaku (C)Pokemon (C)2017 ピカチュウプロジェクト / (C)空知英秋／集英社 (C)2017 映画「銀魂」製作委員会 / (C)2017 Disney/Pixar. All Rights Reserved.

Usual Locations (Two-Thirds of Market) - Seating, Theater/Showing Counts (July 15th)

07/15/17
# Seats, % Change, [Theaters/Showings], Film (Distributor) Week
467,831, -----, [242/1,478], Pokemon: I Choose You! (Toho) NEW
417,416, -----, [243/1,396], Gintama (Warner Bros.) NEW
319,925, -46%, [245/1,687], Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney) WK3
275,324, -58%, [241/1,600], Mary and the Witch's Flower (Toho) WK2
259,259, -----, [243/1,421], Cars 3 (Disney) NEW
139,029, -41%, [235/1,030], Shinobi's Country (Toho) WK3
108,227, -----, [192/809], Power Rangers (Toei) NEW
55,991, -47%, [235/422], Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.) WK6
54,846, -49%, [187/426], I Have Difficulty Being Love Too Much (Shochiku) WK3
53,158, -30%, [158/373], Anpanman: Buruburu's Big Treasure Hunt Adventure! (Tokyo Theaters) WK3
41,508, -----, [46/219], No Game, No Life -Zero- (Kadokawa) NEW
32,774, -50%, [89/236], Life (Sony) WK2
31,928, -58%, [91/254], John Wick: Chapter 2 (Pony Canyon) WK2
31,456, -63%, [221/248], Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho) WK6
27,318, -60%, [197/206], Beauty and the Beast (Disney) WK13
25,732, -39%, [189/189], Innocent Curse (Shochiku) WK5
16,754, -59%, [125/127], Hacksaw Ridge (Kino Films) WK4
14,101, -43%, [45/91], Free! Timeless Medley Yakusoku (Promise) (Shochiku) WK3
12,953, -41%, [100/102], Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Toho) WK14
12,733, -50%, [52/83], The Irregular at High School: The Girl Who Summons Stars (Aniplex) WK5
9,786, -45%, [24/62], Yuuki Yuuna is a Hero: Washio Sumi's Chapter 3 (Pony Canyon) WK2
5,427, -79%, [42/45], To Each His Own (Toho) WK8
3,173, -46%, [24/25], Going in Style (Warner Bros.) WK4
2,339, -80%, [10/13], King of Prism: Pride the Hero (Avex Pictures) WK7
1,879, -----, [18/19], Good Will Hunting (Shochiku) SP

This weekend is a 3-day holiday weekend (Sat-Mon), Ocean Day Weekend, and the start of Summer Vacation. It's always one of the strongest weekends of the year, so I'll cover it extensively over the next few days.

Didn't realize Cars 3 was releasing this weekend. Will Pirates theater count be affected by this? Its Disney and then Pirates had a massive theater count to begin with.

No, Cars 3 won't hurt Pirates 5 since it's not a blockbuster or event film. It's probably going to miss the Top 3 this weekend.

Rather than a Weekend Forecast this weekend, I'll be doing the hourly admission updates for the Top 5 films over the 3-day holiday weekend frame (Sat-Mon).

Usual Locations (Two-Thirds of Market) - Hourly Saturday Ticket Sales

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 10PM > FINAL

27,740 > 49,624 > 56,621 > 74,893 - Pokemon 20 (NEW)
12,809 > 18,239 > 29,293 > 39,033 - Gintama (NEW)
13,628 > 24,255 > 29,090 > 38,748 - Cars 3 (NEW)
x8,705 > 14,483 > 24,799 > 35,168 - Pirates 5 (WK3)
x6,276 > 12,223 > 16,686 > 23,358 - Mary and the Witch's Flower (WK2)

I'll have a mid-day report following the next update (~1 hour).

Mid-Day Report (07/15/17):

Pokemon: I Choose You!, the 20th entry in the series, is outpacing last year's film by a remarkable 51%, and is ahead of the eighteenth film by 37%. It's very, very likely going to win the weekend in admissions, but its low avg. ticket prices makes a #1 debut in revenue too close to call right now. Overall, this is the result the film franchise has been needing for several years now, after experiencing franchise lows with the X&Y series of films from 2014-2016.

Cars 3 is doing alright for itself, and is trailing its predecessor by single digits at the moment. It's trailing Finding Dory by 36%, but honestly, that's pretty good even though Dory disappointed a bit in the market.

Gintama is performing quite well and is yet another domestic hit for Warner Bros.. It'll continue to play well into the evening, and while it won't be able to match Pokemon in terms of admissions over the weekend, it still has a shot of winning the weekend in terms of revenue.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales is holding very well in the face of new competition and could see a sub-30% drop in its third weekend. It's going to get dethroned from atop the weekend box office in terms of admissions (by Pokemon), but it still has a good chance of claiming its third-consecutive week at #1 in revenue.

Mary and the Witch's Flower is unfortunately feeling the effect of losing a lot of seating/showtimes due to its underwhelming debut last week, and has yet to show any signs of generating much interest post-opening. It's currently heading for a 30/35% second weekend decline, and while that isn't particularly bad, it's not good either.

Power Rangers also opened this weekend, but... it's bombing. Unless it has abnormally strong evening shows, it's going to rank 7th/8th over the weekend, and come in well below ¥100 million (easily sub-$1 million)

Current Weekend Projections:

2-Day:
¥525-550 million ($4.6-4.8 million) / 350,000-375,000 admissions - Pirates 5 (WK3)
¥450-500 million ($4.0-4.5 million) / 400,000-450,000 admissions - Pokemon 20 (NEW)
¥425-475 million ($3.7-4.0 million) / 300,000-325,000 admissions - Gintama (NEW)
¥375-425 million ($3.3-3.7 million) / 275,000-300,000 admissions - Cars 3 (NEW)
¥275-300 million ($2.4-2.6 million) / 200,000-225,000 admissions - Mary and the Witch's Flower (WK2)

3-Day Holiday (Sat-Mon):
¥775-800 million ($6.8-7.0 million) / 500,000-525,000 admissions - Pirates 5 (WK3)
¥675-725 million ($6.0-6.4 million) / 600,000-650,000 admissions - Pokemon 20 (NEW)
¥625-675 million ($5.5-6.0 million) / 450,000-475,000 admissions - Gintama (NEW)
¥575-625 million ($5.1-5.5 million) / 425,000-450,000 admissions - Cars 3 (NEW)
¥425-450 million ($3.7-4.0 million) / 325,000-350,000 admissions - Mary and the Witch's Flower (WK2)

is this a three day weekend (Saturday to Monday)?

Yep.

Usual Locations (Two-Thirds of Market) - Hourly Saturday Ticket Sales

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 10PM > FINAL

27,740 > 49,624 > 56,621 > 74,893 > 87,334 > 94,998 > 109,187 > 115,252 > 124,939 > 134,277 - Pokemon 20 (NEW)
12,809 > 18,239 > 29,293 > 39,033 > 43,984 > 58,325 > x69,874 > x73,641 > x91,364 > 116,673 - Gintama (NEW)
x8,705 > 14,483 > 24,799 > 35,168 > 40,206 > 54,009 > x66,563 > x71,158 > x86,896 > 109,062 - Pirates 5 (WK3)
13,628 > 24,255 > 29,090 > 38,748 > 46,016 > 50,586 > x59,182 > x63,760 > x70,954 > x77,522 - Cars 3 (NEW)
x6,276 > 12,223 > 16,686 > 23,358 > 30,382 > 36,514 > x42,598 > x47,088 > x52,634 > x59,911 - Mary and the Witch's Flower (WK2)

The final update will be posted in about 30 minutes.

A few notes before then:
>Pokemon 20 is aiming for the biggest opening in the series since 2011/2012 (movies 14 and 15), and may deliver the 6th/7th biggest debut in the franchise.
>Gintama and Pirates 5 won't match Pokemon's admissions over the weekend, but they're in a three-way battle with it for the #1 spot in revenue.
>Cars 3 really slowed down in the evening and will come in a distant fourth now rather than a possible Top 3 position. It will also come in below Cars 2, and possibly even Cars.

Usual Locations (Two-Thirds of Market) - Hourly Saturday Ticket Sales

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 10PM > FINAL

27,740 > 49,624 > 56,621 > 74,893 > 87,334 > 94,998 > 109,187 > 115,252 > 124,939 > 134,277 > 134,728 - Pokemon 20 (NEW)
12,809 > 18,239 > 29,293 > 39,033 > 43,984 > 58,325 > x69,874 > x73,641 > x91,364 > 116,673 > 118,271 - Gintama (NEW)
x8,705 > 14,483 > 24,799 > 35,168 > 40,206 > 54,009 > x66,563 > x71,158 > x86,896 > 109,062 > 110,407 - Pirates 5 (WK3)
13,628 > 24,255 > 29,090 > 38,748 > 46,016 > 50,586 > x59,182 > x63,760 > x70,954 > x77,522 > x77,759 - Cars 3 (NEW)
x6,276 > 12,223 > 16,686 > 23,358 > 30,382 > 36,514 > x42,598 > x47,088 > x52,634 > x59,911 > x60,188 - Mary and the Witch's Flower (WK2)

Updated Weekend Projections in a moment.

Saturday Report (07/15/17):

Pokemon: I Choose You!, the 20th entry in the series, outpaced last year's film by an astounding 67%, and the eighteenth film by an incredible 54%. If Sunday delivers, it'll be on target to achieve the biggest debut in the series since 2011 (movie 14) and earn anywhere from the 5th-7th biggest debut in the entire franchise. Talk about a turnaround after the past several years!

Gintama is performing quite well and is yet another domestic hit for Warner Bros.. Its first day is slightly below the first Rurouni Kenshin film, also from WB, and while it won't debut at #1 in admissions thanks to Pokemon, it's still a contender for the #1 spot in revenue.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales held very well facing some new competition, and seems headed for a sub-30% drop in its third weekend. Like Gintama, it won't be able to match Pokemon's admissions over the weekend, thus being dethroned atop the box office there, but it still has a good chance of claiming the #1 spot in revenue for a third-consecutive weekend.

Cars 3 is clearly skewing younger than any Pixar film I've tracked given its poor evening showing. As a result, it could debut below both of its predecessors and end up as the third lowest opener among Pixar films.

Mary and the Witch's Flower was unable to recover throughout the day and is till heading toward a 35% or so decrease in its second weekend, and that's not good. Its debut was fine, if underwhelming, so it really needed to hold on well over the next several weeks and so far, no good.

Power Rangers performed even worse than it appeared early yesterday and will only rank 7th-9th in its debut weekend...

Updated Weekend Projections:

2-Day:
¥525-550 million ($4.6-4.8 million) / 350,000-375,000 admissions - Pirates 5 (WK3)
¥500-550 million ($4.4-4.8 million) / 450,000-500,000 admissions - Pokemon 20 (NEW)
¥450-500 million ($4.0-4.4 million) / 325,000-375,000 admissions - Gintama (NEW)
¥350-400 million ($3.1-3.5 million) / 250,000-275,000 admissions - Cars 3 (NEW)
¥275-300 million ($2.4-2.6 million) / 200,000-225,000 admissions - Mary and the Witch's Flower (WK2)

3-Day Holiday (Sat-Mon):
¥775-800 million ($6.8-7.0 million) / 500,000-525,000 admissions - Pirates 5 (WK3)
¥750-800 million ($6.6-7.0 million) / 675,000-725,000 admissions - Pokemon 20 (NEW)
¥675-725 million ($6.0-6.4 million) / 500,000-550,000 admissions - Gintama (NEW)
¥525-575 million ($4.6-5.0 million) / 375,000-425,000 admissions - Cars 3 (NEW)
¥425-450 million ($3.7-4.0 million) / 325,000-350,000 admissions - Mary and the Witch's Flower (WK2)

Pokemon Box-Office History


Opening Weekends:
¥780.9 million ($6.5 million) / 742,978 :: Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: The Rise of Darkrai (2007)
¥703.8 million ($6.7 million) / 670,285 :: Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Giratina and the Sky Warrior - Shaymin (2008)
¥672.5 million ($7.1 million) / 641,700 :: Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Arceus - To a Conquering Spacetime (2009)
¥629.7 million ($7.7 million) / 600,602 :: Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Master of Illusions - Zoroark (2010)
¥540.1 million ($6.7 million) / 515,905 :: Pokemon Best Wishes: Victini and the Black Hero - Zekrom/Victini and the White Hero - Reshiram (2011)
¥515.2 million ($4.7 million) / 491,192 :: Pokemon Advanced: Mew and the Wave Hero - Lucario (2005)
¥509.1 million ($6.4 million) / 489,862 :: Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (2012)
¥500.2 million ($4.6 million) / 475,462 :: Pokemon Advanced: Deoxys - Sky-Splitting Visitor (2004)
¥486.3 million ($5.0 million) / 464,839 :: Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (2013)
¥450.2 million ($3.8 million) / 427,104 :: Pokemon Advanced: Jirachi - Wishing Star of Seven Nights (2003)
¥416.4 million ($3.6 million) / 396,472 :: Pokemon Advanced: Pokemon Ranger and the Prince of the Sea (2006)
¥393.2 million ($3.9 million) / 360,190 :: Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (2014)
¥384.1 million ($3.1 million) / 351,592 :: Pokemon XY: Hoopa and the Clash of Ages (2015)
¥380.5 million ($3.1 million) / 354,328 :: Pokemon: Celebi - A Timeless Encounter (2001)
¥323.9 million ($3.0 million) / 289,971 :: Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (2016)
¥292.6 million ($2.4 million) / 273,209 :: Pokemon: Guardians of Altomare - Latias and Latios (2002)

Pokemon: I Choose You! is on track for ¥500 million+ and 450,000+ admissions, or a little more, based on Saturday's results.

Totals:
¥7.54 billion ($67.8 million) / 6.54 million :: Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back (1998)
¥6.36 billion ($64.8 million) / 5.60 million :: Pokemon: Revelation Lugia (1999)
¥5.02 billion ($47.2 million) / 4.78 million :: Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: The Rise of Darkrai (2007)
¥4.85 billion ($45.7 million) / 4.50 million :: Pokemon: Lord of the Unown Tower - Entei (2000)
¥4.80 billion ($53.3 million) / 4.66 million :: Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Giratina and the Sky Warrior - Shaymin (2008)
¥4.67 billion ($51.6 million) / 4.40 million :: Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Arceus - To a Conquering Spacetime (2009)
¥4.50 billion ($38.4 million) / 4.28 million :: Pokemon Advanced: Jirachi - Wishing Star of Seven Nights (2003)
¥4.38 billion ($39.1 million) / 4.16 million :: Pokemon Advanced: Deoxys - Sky-Splitting Visitor (2004)
¥4.33 billion ($56.1 million) / 4.13 million :: Pokemon Best Wishes: Victini and the Black Hero - Zekrom/Victini and the White Hero - Reshiram (2011)
¥4.30 billion ($38.9 million) / 4.10 million :: Pokemon Advanced: Mew and the Wave Hero - Lucario (2005)
¥4.16 billion ($50.3 million) / 3.97 million :: Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Master of Illusions - Zoroark (2010)
¥3.90 billion ($32.5 million) / 3.63 million :: Pokemon: Celebi - A Timeless Encounter (July 2001)
¥3.61 billion ($46.0 million) / 3.44 million :: Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (2012)
¥3.40 billion ($28.2 million) / 3.23 million :: Pokemon Advanced: Pokemon Ranger and the Prince of the Sea (2006)
¥3.17 billion ($33.0 million) / 3.01 million :: Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (2013)
¥2.91 billion ($28.2 million) / 2.70 million :: Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (2014)
¥2.67 billion ($21.8 million) / 2.55 million :: Pokemon: Guardians of Altomare - Latias and Latios (2002)
¥2.61 billion ($21.3 million) / 2.40 million :: Pokemon XY: Hoopa and the Clash of Ages (2015)
¥2.15 billion ($20.8 million) / 1.95 million :: Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (2016)

Pokemon: I Choose You! will be aiming for ¥3.5 billion and 3 million+ admissions based on Saturday's results.

Pixar Box-Office History


Opening Weekends:
¥977.3 million ($11.1 million) / 649,249 - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥898.0 million ($8.4 million) / 724,000 - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥847.4 million ($8.5 million) / 614,969 - Monsters University (2013)
¥751.9 million ($7.3 million) / 604,355 - The Incredibles (2004)
¥745.5 million ($7.1 million) / 553,066 - Finding Dory (2016)
¥627.7 million ($7.2 million) / 440,804 - Up (2009)
¥590.7 million ($4.5 million) / 465,624 - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥504.9 million ($4.2 million) / 379,941 - Ratatouille (2007)
¥458.2 million ($4.9 million) / 336,597 - Cars 2 (2011)
¥449.6 million ($4.8 million) / 373,754 - Wall-E (2008)
¥406.0 million ($3.3 million) / 316,315 - Inside Out (2015)
¥381.2 million ($3.5 million) / 350,000 - Cars (2006)
¥237.1 million ($2.1 million) / 191,696 - The Good Dinosaur (2016)
¥147.8 million ($1.9 million) / 106,271 - Brave (2012)

Cars 3 is on track for ¥350 million and 250,000 admissions, or a little more, based on Saturday's results.

Totals:
¥11.00 billion ($102.4 million) / 8.60 million - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥10.80 billion ($130.7 million) / 7.20 million - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥9.37 billion ($76.8 million) / 7.60 million - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥8.96 billion ($91.3 million) / 7.05 million - Monsters University (2013)
¥6.83 billion ($65.8 million) / 5.57 million - Finding Dory (2016)
¥5.26 billion ($51.1 million) / 4.40 million - The Incredibles (2004)
¥5.00 billion ($60.5 million) / 3.80 million - Up (2009)
¥4.04 billion ($33.6 million) / 3.40 million - Inside Out (2015)
¥4.00 billion ($44.2 million) / 3.20 million - Wall-E (2008)
¥3.90 billion ($36.3 million) / 3.10 million - Ratatouille (2007)
¥3.45 billion ($29.9 million) / 2.80 million - Toy Story 2 (2000)
¥3.01 billion ($39.0 million) / 2.32 million - Cars 2 (2011)
¥2.23 billion ($19.0 million) / 1.80 million - Cars (2006)
¥1.69 billion ($15.0 million) / 1.35 million - The Good Dinosaur (2016)
¥1.15 billion ($8.3 million) / 900,000 - A Bug's Life (1999)
¥930 million ($11.9 million) / 680,000 - Brave (2012)

Cars 3 will be aiming for ¥2.75 billion and 2 million admissions based on Saturday's result.

Gintama must be another live action parody, can't wait to watch how FMA:B and Tokyo Ghoul bombs at the box office

None of them are going to bomb...

Gintama is performing very well (probably going to have the biggest live-action debut for a domestic film this year so far), and Tokyo Ghoul and especially Full Metal Alchemist will do good numbers as well.