A bit of a slow, boring week, so I wasn't too motivated to post a Weekend Forecast this weekend. May and June are two of the weaker months of the year, so don't expect anything exciting until July rolls around.

As for this weekend, though:

Beauty and the Beast goes unchallenged once again and will claim its sixth-consecutive weekend atop the box office, probably earning ¥325-350 million ($3.0-3.2 million) over the weekend. Its six week total should be around ¥9.6 billion ($85 million) after Sunday.

Second and third place this weekend is a bit off a toss-up between the top two openers, but one is favored slightly over the other:

First, coming in the likely second place position comes the latest film Yoji Yamada film, What a Wonderful Family! 2, debuting this weekend looking to deliver a modest debut between ¥125-150 million ($1.1-1.3 million) based on its Saturday admissions. That's a little on the low end of most Yamada films, but since his films skew very old they typically rely on weekdays rather than weekends. This marks the 85 year-old's 84th theatrical release.

And the likely third place film this weekend will probably go to To Each His Own, Toho's live-action adaptation of the award-winning novel. Based on Saturday's figures, it'll come in around ¥110-130 million ($1.0-1.2 million).

Since we're about to experience some of the weakest weeks of the year at the box office (June is frequently one of the three weakest months every year, alongside October and February), I'll provide some posts/analysis over the course of a few weeks ahead of the Summer box office season (July and August).

Tonight, I'll post some interest stats (equivalent to "likes") from one of the most popular Japanese movie sites.

Eiga.com's Most "Likes" (Top 100 Search Ranking) - July & August:

11,221 (63rd) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (07/01/17)
8,310 (UR) - Spider-Man: Homecoming (08/11/17)
6,750 (87th) - Gintama (07/14/17)
5,274 (UR) - Wonder Woman (08/25/17)
4,685 (UR) - Transformers: The Last Knight (08/04/17)
4,283 (99th) - Mary and the Witch's Flower (07/08/07)
4,269 (71st) - I Want to Eat Your Pancreas (07/28/17)
3,897 (UR) - Tokyo Ghoul (07/29/17)
3,770 (97th) - John Wick: Chapter 2 (07/07/17)
3,618 (UR) - JoJo's Bizarre Adventure: Diamond Is Unbreakable (08/04/17)
3,463 (UR) - Fireworks, Should We See it from the Side or the Bottom? (08/18/17)
3,117 (UR) - Despicable Me 3 (07/21/17)
2,412 (UR) - Power Rangers (07/15/17)
2,162 (62nd) - The Mummy (07/28/17)
2,111 (UR) - Cars 3 (07/15/17)
1,868 (UR) - Life (07/08/17)
1,573 (UR) - Sekigahara (08/26/17)
1,361 (UR) - Pokemon: I Choose You! (07/15/17)

UR = Unranked in the Top 100 Search List.

Note: Animated films primarily targeting kids/families are largely unrepresented online, so these numbers don't correlate well with their performances.

I have a feeling Pirates 5 is heading for a sizeable drop in Japan based on its domestic opening and other markets. I wouldn't be surprised if it drops 20% or more in yen. The WOM is very mixed.

Regarding Power Rangers, I'm thinking it will perform similarly to Ghost in the Shell (around ¥1 billion). It only needs $6.1 million to become the film's highest-grossing overseas territory (rather sad if you think about it).

Pirates is more of an OS movie and I don't think the WoM is poorer than last movie. The last one was entirely new series in its own, this one is more of a continuation of the original trilogy.

It'll most likely drop, but I doubt it's significant and wouldn't worry about it too much.

Interest is high, and it has the summer kick-off weekend all to itself following the dead month of June... I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being the widest release of all-time in the market as a result. And said release date is much stronger than its predecessor's. And while there's a lot of competition later in July/August... this summer lacks any one major film to contend with so it could be the top choice for casual moviegoers as the easily recognized/established option to see over the summer.

Based on this past weekend's estimates, I have Beauty and the Beast hitting the ¥10 billion milestone on Thursday, its 42nd day in release.

Disney's latest live-action iteration will become the 31st film to reach the uber-blockbuster milestone of ¥10 billion, and likely the tenth fastest of those to reach the important mark.

Fastest to ¥10 billion (90 Days or Less)
25 - Spirited Away (2001)
28 - Your Name. (2016)
28 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
30 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
31 - Ponyo (2008)
33 - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
35 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
37 - Frozen (2014)
37 - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
42 - Beauty and the Beast (2017) *Projection*
43 - Princess Mononoke (1997)
44 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azakaban (2004)
45 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
47 - Star Wars: Episode 1 - The Phantom Menace (1999)
50 - Avatar (2009)
52 - Finding Nemo (2003)
52 - Toy Story 3 (2010)
52 - The Last Samurai (2003)
53 - The Wind Rises (2013)
53 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
53 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
57 - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
78 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)

Fate is doing pretty well in Japan. Great for BatB as well.

The Fate of the Furious became the highest-grossing film in the Furious franchise this weekend, and likely the top film in admissions as well (have to do some research to make this claim though).

Yeah I think I asked you the same for last movie and do remember this being the highest gross for the franchise.

Japan is one of the few markets (China and Indonesia being the other major ones) where the film actually improved upon Furious 7 instead of declining. I wonder if this is because the last film built up a lot of goodwill and drew new viewers into the franchise. It will be interesting to see if the upcoming Furious sequels maintain this peak or if they decline.

Will Beauty and the Beast end its run on July 1 when Pirates 5 is released? I see you mentioned Zootopia left theaters when Finding Dory was released, even though it was still #4 the previous weekend (dropping just 11%). Does this mean Cars 3 will also take away screens from Pirates 5 as it's also a Disney release?

Beauty and the Beast will take a major hit when Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales opens on July 1st since it'll be in its 11th weekend and probably be under ¥200 million going into that weekend. It won't leave theaters entirely, but it'll likely be cut down to a limited release (or nearly so) and fall way outside of the Top 10 -- it will very likely leave theaters two weeks later though (July 15th) since several major releases open ahead of summer vacation.

Pirates 5 will be fine when Cars 3 releases two weeks later since it's so soon, and Cars isn't a blockbuster franchise in Japan by any means (it's barely a "hit" franchise).

Japan is regularly Disney's biggest overseas market, so they go all out when they release a new tentpole in the market, sometimes at the cost of any film they released months prior that may still be doing solid numbers in the Top 10 (Maleficent cost Frozen, Zootopia cost The Force Awakens, Finding Dory cost Zootopia).

Thanks for the explanation. In the U.S. it is usually up to the theaters to decide which films to cut for the upcoming weekend. I think it's unusual of Disney to choose to cannibalize their own releases, as the standard procedure for most theaters is to prioritize removing their least profitable films first (even if they have not been in theaters as long) for new wide releases.

Disney likely has some deal or contract with certain theaters in Japan considering their status as the market's biggest foreign distributor by an overwhelming margin.

I say this because Toho, the biggest domestic and overall distributor, do contracts with theaters to keep their major release(s) of the year playing without losing any screens for 4-6 months (usually reserved for one or two films a year). Of course, Toho also operates the second largest cinema chain (and busiest) in the country as well, so they have more say-so regarding their releases.

It may seem unusual for Disney to want to cut into the legs of one of their over-performing films but we're usually talking about 3-5 month gaps between their major releases (March/April to July/August, July/August to November/December, and November/December to March/April) so it can be hard to predict a film to still be in the Top 5, for example, after ten+ weeks sometimes. Their strategy certainly seems to be working out very well for them though since it optimizes the revenue from the debut and first couple months of each major release versus adding less revenue for a major release that's in week ten, eleven, twelve, or more (even if it's still in the Top 10).

Thanks again. Just so I'm understanding correctly, Disney is trying to get the widest release possible for their bigger films? Would it not be more economical for theaters to give the available screens Disney needs from underperforming films (including those of other studios) instead of one of Disney's overperforming films? Or is this restricted by the contracts you mentioned?

On a related note, did Moana also suffer large cuts in screens/showtimes when Beauty and the Beast was released? There was only a bit over a month between the two releases, and both were expected to be blockbusters. Sometimes, Disney does release multiple potential blockbusters very close to each other. I looked at your previous reports, and it seems Zootopia was actually hit hard by Alice 2 first but survived in the Top 3 regardless. But Finding Dory then completely killed it 2 weeks later.

One issue is the sheer number of theatrical releases in Japan. I haven't seen any data in a couple years, but last I checked, Japan was second only to India in the number of theatrical releases each year. In 2016, 1,149 films (610 domestic, 539 imported) were released theatrically -- that's 22 films every week on average.

Every weekend has up to a dozen or more releases (I've seen over 30), and while most are limited releases, theaters are generally accommodating to all of them regarding screens and showtimes for multiple weeks. So, it comes down to limited screen/showtimes, which is why Disney likely cuts into their own films when they have a new major release debuting since their own tentpoles are the widest releases in the country, so they have a lot of screen/showtimes to utilize.

Yes, Moana was hit by Beauty and the Beast. There was only a six week gap between them, but Moana was only #1 for a single week and didn't quite perform up to expectations (down to #5 in week six with under ¥150 million), so Disney probably saw fit to cut into its screens/showtimes for Beauty considering how huge it was everywhere else before opening in Japan. And again, this was the right move by them since a smaller amount of screens/showtimes probably would have cost Beauty its ¥1 billion+ start.

Eiga.com's Most "Liked" Summer Releases (July & August):

01. 11,420 [+199], (43rd) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (07/01/17)
02. 8,471 [+161], (UR) - Spider-Man: Homecoming (08/11/17)
03. 6,868 [+118], (83rd) - Gintama (07/14/17)
04. 5,274 [+85], (UR) - Wonder Woman (08/25/17)
05. 4,789 [+104], (UR) - Transformers: The Last Knight (08/04/17)
06. 4,420 [+137], (UR) - Mary and the Witch's Flower (07/08/07)
07. 4,365 [+97], (76th) - I Want to Eat Your Pancreas (07/28/17)
08. 3,972 [+75], (93rd) - Tokyo Ghoul (07/29/17)
09. 3,770 [+115], (82nd) - John Wick: Chapter 2 (07/07/17)
10. 3,688 [+70], (UR) - JoJo's Bizarre Adventure: Diamond Is Unbreakable (08/04/17)
11. 3,546 [+83], (UR) - Fireworks, Should We See it from the Side or the Bottom? (08/18/17)
12. 3,212 [+81], (UR) - Despicable Me 3 (07/21/17)
13. 2,685 [+83], (UR) - Shinobi's Country (07/01/17)
14. 2,473 [+61], (UR) - Power Rangers (07/15/17)
15. 2,267 [+105], (55th) - The Mummy (07/28/17)
16. 2,177 [+66], (UR) - Cars 3 (07/15/17)
17. 1,967 [+99], (UR) - Life (07/08/17)
18. 1,599 [+27], (UR) - Sekigahara (08/26/17)
19. 1,393 [+32], (UR) - Pokemon: I Choose You! (07/15/17)

UR = Unranked in the Top 100 Search List.

As of 05/30/17