Sad

Most of the weekend seating isn't even released yet, so are you basing this on available Friday seating from chains that have released their seating?

Demon Slayer is going to easily beat Doraemon, guys. Demon Slayer would need to drop up to 50% or more, and that's not going to happen, obviously. And don't be discouraged by the drop in seats. In its fourth weekend it was still on over 1 million seats a day, at all-time record levels, and "only" sold 39% of its tickets over last weekend. It doesn't need over 1 million seats anymore, and somewhere around 600,000-700,000 seats is perfectly fine and plenty (this is also what all the biggest blockbusters get when they open and still do 1 million admissions and over 1 billion).

Don't make this unfun with freak-outs or negative comments before even seeing how things go. You know this is the biggest film of all time, breaking all records, etc., yes? LOL.

And Doraemon doing well should also be hoped for.

Thank you.

Here's an ridiculous potential stat: If it ends up where I'm projecting on Sunday, or even just close, its 6-week total will be as high as the 6-week totals of Spirited Away and Frozen, combined.

Looks like this one may be a nailbiter

'This is not freak out. Almost every theater chain has some theaters already revealed their showing schedules, including Toho, Movix, 109, Aeon and such, and every theater chain gives more seats to Doraemon. The people in Tieba who have followed Japanese box office for a couple of years all believe DS is goning to have around 600k seats this weekend. I wanted to see people's opinion on the folowing weekend ranking here.
And it seems a lot people on 5ch thinks this time Doraemon will have a higher opening than its predecessor because it's a sequal.

As Corpse said, it no longer need a million seats. 600k or even lower would do just fine. More than fine If I must say so.

@Corpse did you look that Spirited Away $ conversion I shared.

re-sharing
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

600,000 seating, if it's true, is again plenty. That's about on par with the blockbusters that still open near/over ¥1 billion and with near/over 1 million admissions. It doesn't need over 1 million seats, or close to that, anymore since its sell-rate has fallen below 40%. There's nothing to worry about. It simply looks big because there's been no reason to take it off so many screens until this upcoming weekend.

And it'll likely gain some seating back even next weekend (Nov. 26th) when round 2 of the giveaways go out.

This is good news for Doraemon, too. We should hope it does as much as its potential allows. Demon Slayer is keeping the theaters thriving, but eventually the industry is going to need more big films like Doraemon playing well, too. Doraemon will also help keep this weekend either on par or higher than last year's, making it 6 weeks in a row that 2020 has beat 2019.

Toho has announced the 41st installment of Doraemon today. I wonder if famlies would skip this film and wait till march 5.

Searching Mimorin, there seems to be a re-release in September 2016

Sep 10-16, 2016: 10,737 admits / 11,627 total seats

Edit:

Seems like one week event
https://www.cinemacafe.net/article/2016 ... 43215.html

Yeah, I replied earlier about the missing $4 million coming from a likely small re-release back in Summer 2016 to celebrate its 15th-anniversary. It wasn't big, never making any weekly charts (or anywhere close), but that wouldn't be too much to earn over the course of the summer in limited release.

Its total went from ¥30.4 billion up to ¥30.8 billion in the official reporting that same fall when Your Name. was doing its thing. I just never updated its USD total from $249 million to $253 million, so thank you for doing this work!

That would explain it.

Looks like it was done, intentionally or not, to help fend off any possible challenge to its crown by Your Name! LOL.

The gross was 30.8Bn even before that event, so gotta find something else.

https://animeanime.jp/article/2016/09/06/30349.html

『千と千尋の神隠し』は2001年7月20日公開され、興行収入は308億円に達した。日本国内の映画興収第1位という記録を2016年現在も保持している大ヒット作である。

It just must have been from other re-releases in the past, maybe a 10th anniversary event or re-release around the time of The Wind Rises (to celebrate Miyazaki's "final" film) or something, because ¥30.4 billion was the long-reported total before ¥30.8 billion was reported beginning in Summer 2016.

If on the coming weekend, the number of seat for DS is around 600k each day, then the selling rate needs to be very high to have a small drop.

Well, when we're saying 600,000 seats, it's just at the usual locations. And for example, it sold 373,000 tickets at the usual locations on Sunday with over 1 million available, so 600,000 is, again, plenty. It's more than plenty and is on par with the opening weekend seating of most major openers in the market. Zero reasons to worry.

But seriously, is there still doubt about it beating Spirited Away? I'll confidently say it's 110% locked up now rather than 99% if that helps assure anyone. And it'll beat it with ease. The only issue now to really be worried or concerned about is how much MORE it grosses after beating Spirited Away.

Wow @Corpse, you predict strong weekdays a strong weekend and a strong Holliday Monday, I hope you are right and the numbers will be as amazing as you predict.

Did you find out about the comparison to Harry Potter 2 ?

It should drop 20%-30% next weekend and with 600K seat then it would have to sell 50-60% which is very achievable.

They're "just" 20/25% declines versus last weekend. Strong, yes, and still pretty much on par with the first set of weekdays for recent uber-blockbusters in its fifth week now, but that's just how other-level it really is.

The weekend is tricky though. I wouldn't be surprised if it drops 30%+, as it *should* given it's the weekend after a major giveaway event that inflated this last weekend. Any bigger drop like this is going to appear "worse" than it really is since this past weekend probably would have been more like ¥1.3/1.4 billion if not for the giveaway, so a 30%+ drop would average out to more of a drop like 20% drop due to this.

Basically, I'm expecting the weekends from hereon are going to be on a seesaw of sorts for the rest of the year, I imagine, since the giveaways are every other weekend. The weekends between them will probably come in lower than normal, while the weekends with them will come in higher than normal, but ultimately they balance each other out.

We'll just need to wait and see though. But again, don't. be. worried. if. it. drops. 30% or more on a random weekday or weekend. Even if that would become a trend, and nothing indicates that right now, it'd *still* beat Spirited Away. So no worries, guys.

And I don't think Harry Potter 2 is really worth comparing. Nothing really is, as we've seen, as this film is simply too large and unique that it's either so far ahead of everything and/or its weekends/weekdays don't line up well. But in just over a week or so, it'll have outgrossed all but one film, so... I don't think looking for comparisons are even worth it anymore.

It is expected that next weekend will have a bigger drop but maybe it will not be that high due to the holiday Monday following the weekend, we will see that by the weekend

@Corpse as the population of japan is steadily declining, do you think that when Demon Slayer overtakes Spirited Away, this one will forever become the biggest Japanese box office movie of all time (especially if it strayed far from previous record and why not exceed $350M) ?

And do you think Demon Slayer could surpass $300M before the end of 2020 ? Because some weeks ago, you said that $275M was lock at 100% but now I think we can say that $300M are also 100% lock, right ?

He already said yes to the first (at least for our lifetime).

Let's not force him to be repeating stuff unnecessarily.

I haven't seen that I'm not on the foum all the time but thanks for the info

Like I said on BOT Demon Slayer should normally if all goes well as planned exceed 21 millions admissions just before December (or so during the first days of December), after there are 18 days of vacation, weekends with gifts and the release of the last one. volume of the manga which could boost its box office so that it makes the 3.3 millions admissions that separates it from Spirited Away, it's true that it's almost impossible to miss that, it can even go for the 25 or 26 million admissions, see more ....

This upcoming Saturday will likely be down a good bit, thinking it could be go over 30% since while this past weekend was inflated, it was primarily the Saturday that was inflated (first day of the giveaway and Toho Cinema Day). Sunday will probably be down a bit as well as it benefited from the giveaway as well, just less so, and with Monday being a holiday, the stronger evening showings should mostly off-set that resulting in the day more or less being "normal".

Until something proves otherwise, it's probably safe to assume a drop somewhere around 30%. If it can manage a 30% decline (or better), it'd be quite impressive given all the the weekend it's following. And of course Monday will make up for any slipup if one happens.



Since I expect it'll surpass Spirited Away sometime around Christmas, maybe a little earlier, maybe a little later, then it'll likely reach/exceed $300 million by the end of December.

And yes, this is likely the only and last film that'll beat Spirited Away for a very long time. I think Japan will curb their declining population to avoid the current trajectory, but it's going to take many years to figure out how and to see it begin to have an impact.

So chances are, this is it. This is as big as it's going to get in most of our lifetimes, so enjoy the run while it lasts and try to avoid rushing to know where it'll finish. This run is all about the journey than the destination.