Thanks, Corpse! Looking forward to seeing how all the new openers perform next month, especially Coco. Hopefully, it gets a nice Oscars boost since Best Animated Feature is practically guaranteed.

Yeah, I cannot see Japan caring about a black superhero. He is a lower tier character in a franchise that they don't really even care for the white characters of!

It's interesting that Marvel is huge in other parts of East Asia like South Korea and China but completely flops (outside the few exceptions) in Japan. I wonder what the cultural explanation is.

Marvel isn't THAT huge in China, really. Considering the size of the market (4x the USA), what's the highest-grossing MCU film in China?

Age of Ultron with $240m.

Then Captain America: Civil War with just $180m. The rest all fall between $90-$120m (Iron Man 3 is top of that bunch and that was even tailored for the Chinese market). But sure, those are many, many, many times larger than Japan, so yeah, I wonder why Japan stands firm on its collective shrug of the MCU.

Japan is one of a few, if not only, market that Stan Lee invade by himself, but all of his attempts failed horribly.

Japan has a great deal more super hero-esque content than the U.S. or other countries produce, thus it makes it incredibly difficult for imported super hero material from Marvel and DC to gain any interest among audiences there. The manga (comic) industry in Japan is 3x greater than its box-office... More people buy the One Piece manga each year than all but two films have sold in admissions in the past 10 years.

Marvel/DC have managed to earn a reliable niche audience in the market, but it's insignificant. $10 million is usually the goal for any Marvel/DC film (and many don't reach that), and $20 million is often very difficult to achieve and anything higher has been reserved for Spider-Man or Avengers projects.

Just because something is popular in Japan, for example, say mechs and kaiju, doesn't mean a big budget film about them from Hollywood (e.g. Pacific Rim) is going to be a hit or a blockbuster in the market. The exact opposite it usually true, in that they're typically rejected or ignored. The biggest films in Japan are those that they rarely see done themselves.

Marvel/DC comics are so established in the U.S., so would audiences turn out in comparable numbers at the box-office for an imported super hero film from Japan or elsewhere? Of course not.

Hi Corpse, with the release of Infinity War being forwarded in US to 27th April to open day-and-date with the rest of the world pretty much, I noticed that Japan doesn't have to wait months to see it? (Even though it won't pull big numbers anyway)

I was wondering whether there were any other massive global hits that released day-and-date in Japan, since the majority wait anywhere between 1-3 months. I think you mentioned before that that's a cultural reasoning or something

Once in awhile a movie will release day-and-date in Japan as well, but it is rare. If it's going to be a guaranteed success from a proven franchise, like a Star Wars or Harry Potter film, it'll usually get released day-and-date. And sometimes a film could open day-and-date to take advantage of a specific holiday season.

Infinity War is opening April 27th because that's just two days before the start of Golden Week -- one of the three biggest weeks at the box-office in Japan along with Obon Festival (mid-August) and New Year (first week of January). The previous two Avengers films proved to be hits in the market as well, so that probably encouraged the go ahead for the day-and-date release for Infinity War.

Day-and-date releases can sometimes backfire majorly as well. If a film from an unproven franchise, for example, is released day-and-date, it's very likely to disappoint or outright bomb. There's no prior audience to back it, no reviews or audience reception to generate interest, no global box office results to boost marketing, not enough time to dub it, etc.

The disadvantages greatly outweigh any advantages a day-and-date release may have the majority of the time.

Also, Disney has managed to achieve two successful annual release time frames in the market, similar to how Toho has specific release dates every year for a lot of their films.

Disney has been releasing their big November animated film in mid-March for a decade now in Japan since it's proved so successful and audiences now expect it. And the first weekend of July (or last day of June if July 1st falls over the weekend) has been a favorite of Disney's now for their big early-Summer live-action tentpole in Japan. Coco and Solo: A Star Wars Story are in these slots this year.

These films would likely do just fine if given the day-and-date treatment in Japan, but their expected release dates has proved too successful to change, and with good reason.

Thank you for the info! I knew about the three big holiday weeks before, I just forget when in the year they are

Any comment on Japan Academy Prize result? Animation category is quite an upset.

Another thing, Jumanji is at $922m worldwide and should get to $950m without its final market, Japan.

What kind of numbers would you expect for this kind of movie? Is there any possible chance that it could breakout and get to $50m, especially since it's had phenomenal WOM in western markets.

Maybe a slight upset. The Animation of the Year category this year was really a toss-up, though, with none of the nominees receiving univeral rave reviews or audience reception. Mary and the Witch's Flower may have seemed like the favorite, but it wasn't as well-received in Japan as it was outside of Japan. It was basically viewed as a solid first effort by Studio Ponoc, one that they can improve upon as they grow as a studio.

I'll post the winners and additional comments about the 41st Japan Academy Prize Awards later this weekend.

$50 million would be pretty shocking (since it'd be comfortably over ¥5 billion). It is a film that should benefit from the typically late release in Japan though due to its box-office results in the U.S. and elsewhere. I'm not sure how it's being marketed, but if it's focusing more on the action-adventure aspects of the film instead of the comedy (western comedy doesn't translate well in Japan, and imported comedies almost always bomb), it should perform fine. I'm expecting $25/30 million or so right now.

The Weekend Forecast will be posted in an hour or so.

The first weekend of March is usually the first big weekend of each year, and this year's isn't going to disappoint.

So what do you put Black Panther's projected performance down to? The Japs care about the hype coming from its US performance that much? Because other than that I don't see Japanese people caring at all.

My projection isn't unusually high or anything. ¥250 million is sort of the average opening for the average Marvel/DC film. Its success in the U.S. is certainly enough to give it the extra boost to open a bit higher than that since it helps generate some buzz and allows for more effective marketing ahead of its release. Also, being featured in Civil War probably helps a bit as well.

If it earns exactly what I'm predicting over the weekend, it still wouldn't be enough to crack the Top 20 Opening Weekends for Marvel/DC films, and achieving the 18th biggest opening for Marvel/DC films is probably its ceiling as well.

Hey Corpse, thanks again for your continued updates. Regarding this weekend's forecast, I believe Doctor Strange also opened higher last year.

Indeed! I always forget that Doctor Strange had one of the most impressive debuts for a Marvel/DC film because it seems like such a random film to do so. In fact, if excluding any film with Spider-Man or the Avengers, it's the biggest. Benedict Cumberbatch is pretty popular in Japan, so I'm assuming he was the primary reason for its overperformance.

Here are the Marvel/DC opening weekends for reference:

Marvel/DC - Biggest Opening Weekends

¥1.226 billion ($9.6 million) - Spider-Man (2002)
¥1.207 billion ($10.1 million) - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
¥1.084 billion ($10.0 million) - Spider-Man 2 (2004)
¥793.9 million ($6.5 million) - Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)
¥580.9 million ($7.4 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man (2012)
¥500.9 million ($6.3 million) - The Avengers (2012)
¥448.8 million ($4.2 million) - Captain America: Civil War (2016)
¥448.5 million ($4.1 million) - Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017)
¥420.3 million ($4.1 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014)
¥414.7 million ($4.3 million) - Iron Man 3 (2013)
¥394.1 million ($3.4 million) - Doctor Strange (2017)
¥390.1 million ($3.8 million) - Suicide Squad (2016)
¥383.3 million ($3.6 million) - Deadpool (2016)
¥372.0 million ($4.6 million) - The Dark Knight Rises (2012)
¥371.3 million ($3.3 million) - Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016)
¥368.9 million ($3.4 million) - Superman Returns (2006)
¥361.9 million ($3.1 million) - X2: X-Men United (2003)
¥333.2 million ($3.1 million) - The Dark Knight (2008)
¥290.2 million ($2.7 million) - Batman Begins (2005)
¥276.6 million ($2.4 million) - X-Men: The Last Stand (2006)
¥272.5 million ($2.7 million) - X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014)
¥268.3 million ($2.8 million) - Man of Steel (2013)
¥266.5 million ($2.4 million) - Wonder Woman (2017)
¥264.6 million ($2.9 million) - Iron Man 2 (2010)
¥249.4 million ($2.2 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017)
¥247.5 million ($2.1 million) - Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007)
¥230.6 million ($2.0 million) - Thor: Ragnarok (2017)
¥224.1 million ($2.1 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy (2014)
¥211.7 million ($2.0 million) - Iron Man (2008)
¥204.7 million ($1.9 million) - Fantastic Four (2005)
¥204.4 million ($1.8 million) - Justice League (2017)
¥200.4 million ($1.7 million) - Ant-Man (2015)
¥198.4 million ($1.9 million) - Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014)
¥194.3 million ($1.6 million) - Daredevil (2003)
¥187.1 million ($1.8 million) - Thor: The Dark World (2014)
¥184.3 million ($1.9 million) - The Wolverine (2013)
¥176.8 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009)
¥163.3 million ($1.4 million) - Logan (2017)
¥160.9 million ($1.4 million) - Hulk (2003)
¥158.5 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men: First Class (2011)
¥153.1 million ($1.5 million) - X-Men: Apocalypse (2016)
¥129.9 million ($1.6 million) - Thor (2011)
¥109.7 million ($1.2 million) - Watchmen (2009)
¥88.3 million ($1.1 million) - Captain America: The First Avenger (2011)
¥65.1 million ($0.6 million) - Catwoman (2004)
¥42.6 million ($0.6 million) - The Green Lantern (2011)
¥41.5 million ($0.4 million) - The Incredible Hulk (2008)

Thanks for the list Corpse. Just a quick correction, Justice League is 2017.

Fixed!

I'm going to attempt some weekend estimates, but one of the six major theater chains is unaccounted for this week, so it's hard to make accurate comparisons versus last week and against past openers. If I don't come up with an satisfactory numbers, and it gets too late today, I'll just wait to post the actuals tomorrow.

Based on what I'm gathering, Doraemon 38 seems like it may have broke the franchise record, or if it misses, it'll barely be down versus the record holder (last year's film). Black Panther, I think, will come in a little below the forecast above, but still debut to the usual range that most Marvel/DC films achieve.

I'm curious about SayoAsa's (Sayonara no Asa ni Yakusoku no Hana wo Kazarou
/ Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms) tepid box office results. From what I see the film was critically well-received, and it's the directorial debut of a very popular anime screenwriter. Yet it had a 5th place opening and might completely fall out of the top 10 in the next week.

On the plus side, the screen count is going up from 76 to 93.

Can Japan help JUMANJI go over the $1b WW mark?

Corpse answered this a few days ago, but it would take an unprecedented breakout in Japan to do so. Will probably miss the $1 billion mark by $20-30 million even with a very good performance (for a live-action adventure comedy) in Japan.