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Spanglish predictions
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Author:  DP07 [ Wed Oct 20, 2004 7:48 am ]
Post subject:  Spanglish predictions
I think it's appearent that this film won't appeal to Sandler fans like 50 First Dates, Anger Management, or Mr. Deeds. On the other hand, I'm certain that this film will do better then 8 Crazy Nights or Punch Drunk Love. Those two films each had very limited audiences. One for being an animated film that did not appeal to most families, the other for being to "weird" for mainstream audeinces. Spanglish should be able to attract an older audeince, but it also should get a sizeable chunk of Sandler fans. At least enough to get this film past 50 at a minimum IMO.

December its holidays will greatly help the film's legs. Just look at Something's Got to Give, which had this date last year. Films of this type tend to thrive at this time of the year. This isn't exactly a summer film.

December will give it huge weekday number for the first two weeks. Then it will probably have an increase int he third week like most films do. It's easily the best week of the year for holdovers. This will have a massive effect on the multiplier.

Opening weekend: 15m
Total: 86m
Multiplier: 5.73
Second Week Drop: 40%
Author:  zingy [ Wed Oct 20, 2004 12:22 pm ]
Post subject: 
It won't have a big opening since this is not a typical Adam Sandler movie. However, it should have very good legs, and a great total due to the holidays. There could pull in about $50 million, or even pull a Something's Gotta Give total.

Opening- $16.0
Total- $80.0
Author:  DP07 [ Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:50 pm ]
Post subject: 
BUMP

Any interest in making predictions for this one at this point?
Author:  Libs [ Mon Oct 25, 2004 9:01 pm ]
Post subject: 
I'm looking forward to this film a whole lot. It's James L. Brooks' first film (that I know of) since As Good As It Gets, which is my favorite movie.

Anyway, I'd predict:
OPENING - $15-17M
TOTAL - $80-90M

I'm not sure the movie has any real Oscar potential, except perhaps a supporting nomination for Cloris Leachman.
Author:  torrino [ Mon Oct 25, 2004 9:33 pm ]
Post subject: 
Mona Lisa Smile numbers, though, I'm a LITTLE interested in seeing this, depending on the reviews.

Opening: $10m
Final Gross: $58m
Author:  Jeff [ Mon Oct 25, 2004 10:11 pm ]
Post subject: 
Opening Weekend: $24 million
Final Gross: $115 million
Author:  lyndenfl [ Sun Nov 07, 2004 4:31 pm ]
Post subject: 
The trailer and poster look weak, and it is a departure from Adam Sandler's normal films.

My predictions:

Opening weekend gross: $20 million

Final domestic gross: $90 million
Author:  matatonio [ Sun Nov 07, 2004 6:07 pm ]
Post subject: 
looks very good!!, something different for Adam Sandler, its will be interesting to see!!
im looking foward to this one!!

$19M/$78M
Author:  Maximus [ Sun Nov 07, 2004 6:29 pm ]
Post subject: 
I don't think it will be a huge hit. It really all depends. It could go the As Good As It Gets, or Somethings Gotta Give route and possibly do big numbers, maybe over 100m. But that would take lots of buzz, strong performances, and some really good advertising. For now, I think it will do between 30m-50m. I will pick the average of that and say something in the 40m range. Fingers crossed that its something special ala As Good As It Gets and it does brilliantly.

15/42m for now.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Mon Nov 08, 2004 1:41 pm ]
Post subject: 
Doesn't look like a typical Sandler movie, but it might make up for it with quality (something most Sandler movies can't boast with :lol:). Going up against a much higher-profile The Aviator won't help it, though.

Early predictions:


Opening weekend - $14.3 million

Total gross - $62 million
Author:  BigMoviePimp [ Tue Nov 09, 2004 1:21 am ]
Post subject: 
Hmmm, will do well with critics, not so well with fans...

$15.5m/$64m
Author:  DP07 [ Tue Nov 09, 2004 10:26 pm ]
Post subject: 
Opening weekend:
RogueCommander 24
lyndenfl 20
matatonio 19
Libs 15-17
Zingaling 16
BigMoviePimp 15.5
DP07 15
zach 15
Dr. Lecter 14.3
Torrino 10

Total:
RogueCommander 115
lyndenfl 90
DP07 86
Libs 80-90
Zingaling 80
matatonio 78
BigMoviePimp 64
Dr. Lecter 62
Torrino 58
zach 42

Multiplier:
Torrino 5.80
DP07 5.73
Libs ~5.31
Zingaling 5.00
RogueCommander 4.79
lyndenfl 4.50
Dr. Lecter 4.34
BigMoviePimp 4.13
matatonio 4.11
zach 2.80

Zach, given that it will be released in December, and that it has the holidays, I think it would be nearly impossible for it to have a multiplier that low. :wink:
Author:  lyndenfl [ Thu Nov 11, 2004 5:37 am ]
Post subject: 
It needs to be marketed heavily to females. The trailer focuses on the three women, especially Leoni, more than Sandler.
Author:  lyndenfl [ Sun Nov 21, 2004 5:12 pm ]
Post subject: 
The new ads are making me revise my previous numbers;

Debut weekend: $23 million

Final gross: $120 million with OSCAR nominations
Author:  Alex Y. [ Sun Nov 21, 2004 6:35 pm ]
Post subject: 
17/122 (barely outgrossing 50 First Dates)
multipliers of movies that opened on the same weekend in 1999

Stuart Little: 9.3x
Anna and the King: 7.5x
Bicentennial Man: 7.1x
Author:  rusty [ Sun Nov 21, 2004 6:38 pm ]
Post subject: 
19/104

The name of the movie pisses me off though.
Author:  Bodrul [ Mon Nov 22, 2004 10:58 am ]
Post subject: 
18/112 :? :wink:
Author:  Maximus [ Mon Nov 22, 2004 4:51 pm ]
Post subject: 
DP07 wrote:
Zach, given that it will be released in December, and that it has the holidays, I think it would be nearly impossible for it to have a multiplier that low. :wink:


Ouch, good point. I should have put more thought into my prediction ;) Overall, I would really like Sandler to suceed this time out. Its got alot going for it, but something is telling me it just won't be that big. While I can't wait to see it, I am sorta aprehensive about it being another hit.... So, I will go with 15/58.... somewhere in that range. DP07 makes a good point- it won't have bad legs, but I really don't see it doing that well..... :(
Author:  lovemerox [ Mon Nov 22, 2004 5:13 pm ]
Post subject: 
20/117
Author:  DP07 [ Mon Dec 13, 2004 8:43 pm ]
Post subject: 
My new predictions: 17.5m/101m. The marketing campaign has been well done.

Opening weekend:
RogueCommander 24
lyndenfl 23
lovemerox 20
rusty 19
matatonio 19
hans 18
DP07 17.5
alex young 17
Libs 15-17
Zingaling 16
BigMoviePimp 15.5
zach 15
Dr. Lecter 13.8
Torrino 10

Total:
alex young 122
lyndenfl 120
lovemerox 117
RogueCommander 115
hans 112
rusty 104
DP07 101
Libs 80-90
Zingaling 80
matatonio 78
BigMoviePimp 64
Torrino 58
zach 58
Dr. Lecter 54

Multiplier:
alex young 7.18
hans 6.22
lovemerox 5.85
Torrino 5.80
DP07 5.77
rusty 5.47
Libs ~5.31
lyndenfl 5.22
Zingaling 5.00
RogueCommander 4.79
BigMoviePimp 4.13
matatonio 4.11
Dr. Lecter 3.91
zach 3.87
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Mon Dec 13, 2004 8:44 pm ]
Post subject: 
Mine:

Opening weekend - $13.8 million

Total gross - $54 million
Author:  Libs [ Mon Dec 13, 2004 9:13 pm ]
Post subject: 
I'm going to say:

OPENING: $12M
TOTAL: $82M
Author:  Libs [ Mon Dec 13, 2004 9:13 pm ]
Post subject: 
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Mine:

Opening weekend - $13.8 million

Total gross - $54 million


It's virtually impossible for its final gross to be that low, opening a week before Christmas.
Author:  El Maskado [ Mon Dec 13, 2004 9:20 pm ]
Post subject: 
Que?
El score en rotten tomates es bajo 23%.
ocho rotten
tres fresh

Mi predictionion 13.3 million
Final cantidad 51.0 million

Adam Sandler no parece mexicano
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Mon Dec 13, 2004 10:19 pm ]
Post subject: 
Libs wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Mine:

Opening weekend - $13.8 million

Total gross - $54 million


It's virtually impossible for its final gross to be that low, opening a week before Christmas.


If the movie is as mediocre as the reviews suggest, it is possible.
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