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Derby score w/ estimates
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=5164		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Plot [ Sat Mar 05, 2005 1:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Derby score w/ estimates
The Pacifier - (21.5 / 24.5) -- Accuracy: 87.76%
Be Cool - (20 / 21.6) -- Accuracy: 92.59%
Hitch - (13 / 12.9) -- Accuracy: 99.22%
Diary of a Mad Black Woman - (12.5 / 10.5) -- Accuracy: 80.95%
Million Dollar Baby - (9.5 / 8.8) -- Accuracy: 92.05%
Constantine - (6.3 / 5.8) -- Accuracy: 91.38%
Cursed - (4 / 4) -- Accuracy: 100.00%
Man of the House - (4.7 / 4) -- Accuracy: 82.50%
Because of Winn-Dixie - (4 / 3.7) -- Accuracy: 91.89%
The Jacket - (3.5 / 3.5) -- Accuracy: 100.00%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 91.83%

New Release: 93.45%
Still in Theater: 91.14%

These projections probably won't hold, but I can dream.
Author:  Anonymous [ Sat Mar 05, 2005 1:37 pm ]
Post subject: 
I changed a bit projections...

The Pacifier - (18 / 26.7) -- Accuracy: 67.42%
Be Cool - (18 / 21.6) -- Accuracy: 83.33%
Hitch - (12.3 / 12.5) -- Accuracy: 98.40%
Diary of a Mad Black Woman - (9.6 / 10.1) -- Accuracy: 95.05%
Million Dollar Baby - (7.9 / 8.8) -- Accuracy: 89.77%
Constantine - (6 / 5.8) -- Accuracy: 96.55%
Cursed - (4.2 / 4) -- Accuracy: 95.00%
Man of the House - (4.2 / 4) -- Accuracy: 95.00%
Because of Winn-Dixie - (3.9 / 3.7) -- Accuracy: 94.59%
The Jacket - (4.5 / 3.3) -- Accuracy: 63.64%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 87.88%

New Release: 71.46%
Still in Theater: 94.91%
Author:  The Scottie [ Sat Mar 05, 2005 1:43 pm ]
Post subject: 
Using Nebs projections, my score will be 88.6% for the top ten movies. Once the Aviator and Sideways numbers come in, it can either help or kill my score. Let's find out.
Author:  matatonio [ Sat Mar 05, 2005 4:06 pm ]
Post subject: 
The Pacifier - (28.1 / 29.3) -- Accuracy: 95.90%
Be Cool - (24.5 / 20.6) -- Accuracy: 81.07%
Hitch - (13.2 / 12) -- Accuracy: 90.00%
Diary of a Mad Black Woman - (12.5 / 11.2) -- Accuracy: 88.39%
Million Dollar Baby - (9.3 / 8.8) -- Accuracy: 94.32%
Constantine - (6.7 / 6.2) -- Accuracy: 91.94%
Cursed - (4 / 3.9) -- Accuracy: 97.44%
Man of the House - (4.8 / 3.7) -- Accuracy: 70.27%
Because of Winn-Dixie - (3.7 / 3.4) -- Accuracy: 91.18%
The Jacket - (6.2 / 2.8) -- Accuracy: 0.00%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 80.05%

New Release: 58.99%
Still in Theater: 89.08%

SCREW THE JACKET TO HELL!! :mad:
Author:  matatonio [ Sat Mar 05, 2005 4:21 pm ]
Post subject: 
with nebs projections

The Pacifier - (28.1 / 26.7) -- Accuracy: 94.76%
Be Cool - (24.5 / 21.6) -- Accuracy: 86.57%
Hitch - (13.2 / 12.5) -- Accuracy: 94.40%
Diary of a Mad Black Woman - (12.5 / 10.2) -- Accuracy: 77.45%
Million Dollar Baby - (9.3 / 8.8) -- Accuracy: 94.32%
Constantine - (6.7 / 5.8) -- Accuracy: 84.48%
Cursed - (4 / 4) -- Accuracy: 100.00%
Man of the House - (4.8 / 4) -- Accuracy: 80.00%
Because of Winn-Dixie - (3.7 / 3.7) -- Accuracy: 100.00%
The Jacket - (6.2 / 3.3) -- Accuracy: 12.12%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 82.41%

New Release: 64.48%
Still in Theater: 90.09%

i still hate the JAcket!! :mad:
Author:  MGKC [ Sat Mar 05, 2005 4:48 pm ]
Post subject: 
Nebs' projections:

The Pacifier - 92.88% ( 24.8 / 26.7 )
Be Cool - 86.11% ( 24.6 / 21.6 )
The Jacket - 39.39% ( 5.3 / 3.3 )
Diary of a Mad Black Woman - 87.13% ( 11.4 / 10.1 )
Hitch - 90.40% ( 13.7 / 12.5 )
Constantine - 96.55% ( 6.0 / 5.8 )
Cursed - 87.50% ( 3.5 / 4.0 )
Man of the House - 95.00% ( 4.2 / 4.0 )
Million Dollar Baby - 92.05% ( 9.5 / 8.8 )
Because of Winn-Dixie - 94.59% ( 3.5 / 3.7 )

Average: 86.16%

My projections:

The Pacifier - 86.71% ( 24.8 / 28.6 )
Be Cool - 92.11% ( 24.6 / 22.8 )
The Jacket - 17.24% ( 5.3 / 2.9 )
Diary of a Mad Black Woman - 96.36% ( 11.4 / 11.0 )
Hitch - 92.13% ( 13.7 / 12.7 )
Constantine - 98.31% ( 6.0 / 5.9 )
Cursed - 89.74% ( 3.5 / 3.9 )
Man of the House - 95.00% ( 4.2 / 4.0 )
Million Dollar Baby - 95.60% ( 9.5 / 9.1 )
Because of Winn-Dixie - 97.06% ( 3.5 / 3.4 )

Average: 86.03%

Not bad...
Author:  Impact [ Sat Mar 05, 2005 5:28 pm ]
Post subject: 
Stupid Jacket!
Rank Film Predicted Estimate Est. Accuracy
1 The Pacifier 30 29.3 97.61%
2 Be Cool 20 20.6 97.09%
3 Hitch 12.2 12 98.33%
4 Diary of a Mad Black Woman 12.7 11.2 86.61%
5 Million Dollar Baby 11.7 8.8 67.05%
6 Constantine 6.1 6.2 98.39%
7 Cursed 3.8 3.9 97.44%
8 Man of the House 5 3.7 64.86%
9 Because of Winn-Dixie 4 3.4 82.35%
10 The Jacket 5 2.8 21.43%

Average
OVERALL (estimate) 81.12%
New Release 72.04%
Still in Theater 85.00%

at least i did get above a 80%
Author:  MGKC [ Sat Mar 05, 2005 5:45 pm ]
Post subject: 
My projections on BOM's Friday numbers:

The Pacifier - 85.52% ( 24.8 / 29.0 )
Be Cool - 95.32% ( 24.6 / 23.5 )
The Jacket - 3.70% ( 5.3 / 2.7 )
Diary of a Mad Black Woman - 92.45% ( 11.4 / 10.6 )
Hitch - 89.52% ( 13.7 / 12.4 )
Constantine - 94.74% ( 6.0 / 5.7 )
Cursed - 97.22% ( 3.5 / 3.6 )
Man of the House - 83.33% ( 4.2 / 3.6 )
Million Dollar Baby - 94.44% ( 9.5 / 9.0 )
Because of Winn-Dixie - 87.10% ( 3.5 / 3.1 )
The Aviator - 72.00% ( 3.2 / 2.5 )
Sideways - 63.64% ( 3.0 / 2.2 )

Score: 79.915%
Author:  Ghostooze [ Sun Mar 06, 2005 2:45 pm ]
Post subject: 
BUMP FOR ACTAULS :wink:
Author:  The Scottie [ Sun Mar 06, 2005 3:52 pm ]
Post subject: 
You mean estimates.

Anyway, it looks like the Aviator and Sideways killed it. I mananged only a 77.9% on the derby. Stupid jacket.
Author:  matatonio [ Sun Mar 06, 2005 3:57 pm ]
Post subject: 
Change the title of the thread.....

The Pacifier - (28.1 / 30.2) -- Accuracy: 93.05%
Be Cool - (24.5 / 23.5) -- Accuracy: 95.74%
Hitch - (13.2 / 12.5) -- Accuracy: 94.40%
Diary of a Mad Black Woman - (12.5 / 12) -- Accuracy: 95.83%
Million Dollar Baby - (9.3 / 8.5) -- Accuracy: 90.59%
Constantine - (6.7 / 6) -- Accuracy: 88.33%
Cursed - (4 / 3.9) -- Accuracy: 97.44%
Man of the House - (4.8 / 3.5) -- Accuracy: 62.86%
Because of Winn-Dixie - (3.7 / 3.5) -- Accuracy: 94.29%
The Jacket - (6.2 / 2.7) -- Accuracy: 0.00%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 81.25%

New Release: 62.93%
Still in Theater: 89.10%
Author:  Jeff [ Sun Mar 06, 2005 4:02 pm ]
Post subject: 
1. The Pacifier -- 81.79%
2. Be Cool -- 65.53%
3. Hitch -- 84.00%
4. Diary of a Mad Black Woman -- 83.33%
5. Million Dollar Baby -- 78.82%
6. Constantine -- 91.67%
7. Cursed -- 79.49%
8. Man of the House -- 68.57%
9. Because of Winn-Dixie -- 80.00%
10. The Jacket -- 33.33%


OVERALL (estimate) -- 74.65%
New Release -- 60.22%
Still in Theater -- 80.84%
Author:  Animosity Reigns [ Sun Mar 06, 2005 6:22 pm ]
Post subject: 
84.5% ... I knew Jacket would flop I said 3.2 and it still wasnt low enough... Hit Pacifier on the button but underpredicted Be Crap a tad, honestly Man of the House is what brought me down to mid-low 80's
Author:  JMorphin [ Sun Mar 06, 2005 11:30 pm ]
Post subject: 
I guess I'll break 80 again (barely), so hopefully I'll make it to top 20 this week, this is my best start of the year ever! :wink:
Author:  Impact [ Mon Mar 07, 2005 9:01 pm ]
Post subject: 
My score w/actuals:
Impact
Rank: 191, Accuracy: 67.077%
Pred.
Rank Act.
Rank Movie Title Pred.
Gross Act.
Gross Accuracy
1 1 THE PACIFIER $30.0 $30.6 98.04%
2 2 BE COOL $20.0 $23.5 85.11%
3 4 DIARY OF A MAD BLACK WOMAN $12.7 $11.0 84.55%
4 3 HITCH $12.2 $12.1 99.17%
5 5 MILLION DOLLAR BABY $11.7 $8.1 55.56%
6 6 CONSTANTINE $6.1 $6.1 100.00%
7 11 THE AVIATOR $5.2 $2.3 0.00%
8 8 MAN OF THE HOUSE $5.0 $3.5 57.14%
9 10 THE JACKET $5.0 $2.7 14.81%
10 9 BECAUSE OF WINN-DIXIE $4.0 $3.2 75.00%
11 7 CURSED $3.8 $3.9 97.44%
12 12 SIDEWAYS $3.4 $2.1 38.10%

yes i went to high on the aviator.
(insert pun here)
Author:  Jeff [ Mon Mar 07, 2005 9:23 pm ]
Post subject: 
RogueCommander
Rank: 87, Accuracy: 72.591%
Author:  xiayun [ Mon Mar 07, 2005 9:42 pm ]
Post subject: 
WildBill won for the first time. Congratulations!
Author:  MikeQ. [ Mon Mar 07, 2005 10:21 pm ]
Post subject: 
I got 33rd with a score of 76.66%!? :shock: :shock: That is quite amazing. Everyone clearly did poorly.

I even beat Scott V and Brandon Gray! Man, I thought my predictions were terrible, and they were, but they were actually relatively good compared to most. Insane.

PEACE, Mike ;)
Author:  Jeff [ Mon Mar 07, 2005 10:27 pm ]
Post subject: 
Not a good week overall. I need to start playing more, to see if I can hone my skills (or lack thereof).
Author:  Kris K [ Tue Mar 08, 2005 8:05 am ]
Post subject: 
OMG, this is like my 4th time entering the derby, and the last time was like 2003.

And i came 8th lol

8 mansonmyers 79.48%

Woohoo
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