Hide and Seek/ The Secret Window/ The Forgotten

Yahoo! Review Rating (Critics/Users): C-/B / C+/B /C+/B-
MPAA Rating: R/ PG-13/ PG-13
Theater Count (Opening Weekend): 3,005/ 3,018/ 3,104

Daily Gross (Per Theater Average)
Day 1: $7,950,000 ($2,646) / $6,611,433 ($2,191)/$7,619,695 ($2,455)
Day 2: -- / $7,397,100 ($2,451)+ 11.9% /$8,627,216 ($2,779) +13.2%
Day 3: -- / $4,229,035 ($1,401) -42.8%/ $4,775,200 ($1,538) -44.6%

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A few notes:

Hide and Seek is off to a great start with nearly $8 million in its opening day. It seems to have overcome the onslaught of negative reviews. WOM will likely determine how good this movie will do in the long run.

The Grudge is a hard movie to match. Maybe The Forgotten is a better comparison?

Possibly. With the surprise twist at the end that is a good point. I'll add it to my chart with the next update. Thanks.

What about adding White Noise to the mix, if possible? Both should have similar runs.


As of now, I see Hide and Seek finishing around $55 million. Expect a big 55+% drop next weekend, especially, since it'll have to face direct competition from Boogeyman.

Sounds good. I'll add it tonight when the weekend numbers are released (I'll be at work until 6pm EST).

Working on Sunday - fun!

Hide and Seek will definently drop more than White Noise and The Forgotten did. This has to deal with direct competition next weekend from Boogeyman, plus it has to deal with the deadly Superbowl Sunday. Horror movies usually drop 50-60% on Sunday.

Also movies with such a surprise ending usually have big drop-offs because the well-kept secret of the ending spreads fast and I heard the twist wasn't a really good one.

Well, I have to disagree with that. White Noise had a surprise ending that wasn't all that loved, yet it dropped 48%. The Forgotten had an unusual twist ending as well, that movie dropped 44%, I believe. I can honestly say that Hide and Seek's ending was better than both of those, because it's an ending that actually made some sense. But, it'll drop harder due to competition.

White Noise dropped 50% over a holiday weekend. Its second weekend drop was inflated by Monday being a holiday, otherwise, it'd have dropped 55%+. The Forgotten was rather an exception and it had much better WoM than Hide and Seek seems to have.

$22,000,000 opening weekend. Along the lines of The Forgotten.

I say: 2nd weekend - $9.3 million

Second Weekend: $9.9 million (-55%)

Hide and Seek/ The Forgotten/ White Noise*

Yahoo! Review Rating (Critics/Users): C-/B /C+/B-/ C-/C+
MPAA Rating: R/ PG-13/PG-13
Theater Count (Opening Weekend): 3,005/ 3,104/ 2,261

Daily Gross (Per Theater Average)
Day 1:$7,950,000 ($2,646) /$7,619,695 ($2,455)/$8,919,645 ($3,945)
Day 2: $8,775,000 ($2,920) 12.1% / $8,627,216 ($2,779) +13.2%/ $9,812,740($4,340) +10%
Day 3: $5,400,000 ($1,797) -38.5% /$4,775,200 ($1,538)-44.6%/ $5,381,180 ($2,380) -45.2%

Opening Weekend: $22,000,000 (est.) ($7,321) / $21,022,111 ($6,772)/ $24,113,565 ($10,665)
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A few notes:

An excellent opening weekend for Hide and Seek, with a small, but (for a horror film) strong Saturday increase. The smallest Sunday decrease of the three comparison films is also a plus, perhaps the word-of-mouth is not as bad as expected?

*I removed Secret Window from the comparison as it was becoming too difficult to manage the numerous figures.

-- Predict the Second Weekend of HIDE AND SEEK --

Second Weekend: $11.0 million (-50%)

Predictions:

Rogue -- $11.0 million (-50%)
Zingaling -- $9.9 million (-55%)
Dr. Lecter -- $9.0 million

I don't believe the WOM is as bad as people here are saying. My theater's reaction was fairly positive, with only a few I heard saying it was bad. The only reason this will drop a little hard is because of competition and the Superbowl.

My revised prediction:

$9.1 million

Well, I thought it was bleh and I didn't hear anything too positive coming out of the theatre when it was over.

Did you hear a lot of negative things?

Predictions
Rogue -- $11.0 million (-50%)
Zingaling -- $9.9 million (-55%)
Dr. Lecter -- $9.1 million

$15 Million 2nd Weekend

A 32% drop? That would be awesome, but I'm doubtful that will happen. :razz:

Look at these drops...

White Noise - -50.0%
The Forgotten - -43.8%
Secret Window - -49.2%
The Butterfly Effect - -44.0%

Predictions
Algren -- $15 million (-32%)
Rogue -- $11.0 million (-50%)
Zingaling -- $9.9 million (-55%)
Dr. Lecter -- $9.1 million