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Scores with Estimates
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=3353		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  Samweis Gamdschie [ Sat Jan 15, 2005 2:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Scores with Estimates
Link:

http://www.boxofficefactor.com/calculat ... lation.htm



Derby (horrible): :mad:

Coach Carter - (14 / 29.6) -- Accuracy: 47.30%
Meet The Fockers - (22 / 25.5) -- Accuracy: 86.27%
Racing Stripes - (14 / 18.4) -- Accuracy: 76.09%
In Good Company - (5 / 16.7) -- Accuracy: 29.94%
Elektra - (20 / 15.8) -- Accuracy: 73.42%
White Noise - (13 / 15.4) -- Accuracy: 84.42%
The Aviator - (6.5 / 6.5) -- Accuracy: 100.00%
Lemony Snicket - (4.0 / 4.5) -- Accuracy: 88.89%
The Phantom of the Opera - (3.4 / 4.1) -- Accuracy: 82.93%
House of Flying Daggers - (2.5 / 3) -- Accuracy: 83.33%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 75.26%

New Release: 65.60%
Still in Theater: 79.40%


UC5 (*cough*): :???:

Coach Carter - (22.2 / 29.6) -- Accuracy: 75.00%
Meet The Fockers - (22.2 / 25.5) -- Accuracy: 87.06%
Racing Stripes - (14.0 / 18.4) -- Accuracy: 76.09%
In Good Company - (5.5 / 16.7) -- Accuracy: 32.93%
Elektra - (22.2 / 15.8) -- Accuracy: 59.49%
White Noise - (12.5 / 15.4) -- Accuracy: 81.17%
The Aviator - (6.6 / 6.5) -- Accuracy: 98.46%
Lemony Snicket - (5.0 / 4.5) -- Accuracy: 88.89%
The Phantom of the Opera - (3.7 / 4.1) -- Accuracy: 90.24%
House of Flying Daggers - (2.8 / 3) -- Accuracy: 93.33%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 78.27%

New Release: 70.19%
Still in Theater: 81.73%
Author:  sako [ Sat Jan 15, 2005 2:17 pm ]
Post subject: 
86.60% \:D/
Author:  Korrgan [ Sat Jan 15, 2005 2:19 pm ]
Post subject: 
Is that 3 or 4 day? Cause if that's 3 day... I'm screwed in Survivor.
Author:  Animosity Reigns [ Sat Jan 15, 2005 2:20 pm ]
Post subject: 
Coach Carter - (27.5 / 29.6) -- Accuracy: 92.91%
Meet The Fockers - (23.5 / 25.5) -- Accuracy: 92.16%
Racing Stripes - (18 / 18.4) -- Accuracy: 97.83%
In Good Company - (14.5 / 16.7) -- Accuracy: 86.83%
Elektra - (23.5 / 15.8) -- Accuracy: 51.27%
White Noise - (14.5 / 15.4) -- Accuracy: 94.16%
The Aviator - (6.9 / 6.5) -- Accuracy: 93.85%
Lemony Snicket - (5.8 / 4.5) -- Accuracy: 71.11%
The Phantom of the Opera - (4.2 / 4.1) -- Accuracy: 97.56%
House of Flying Daggers - (3.1 / 3) -- Accuracy: 96.67%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 87.43%

New Release: 80.67%
Still in Theater: 90.33%


cant remember "exact" numbers, to lazy to look em up, but im pretty close.... Lemony and Elektra need to have a huge Sat, Sun and Mon for my derby :razz:
Author:  sako [ Sat Jan 15, 2005 2:20 pm ]
Post subject: 
Korrgan wrote:
Is that 3 or 4 day? Cause if that's 3 day... I'm screwed in Survivor.


4-day
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sat Jan 15, 2005 2:31 pm ]
Post subject: 
I have over 80%, that's fine by me!
Author:  BJ [ Sat Jan 15, 2005 2:36 pm ]
Post subject: 
61.41% :oops:

over predicted every thing but ING and CC :oops: oh and I think that Fockers prediction is low it sould have 20m for the three day :wink:
Author:  Vovanik [ Sat Jan 15, 2005 2:37 pm ]
Post subject: 
83.37% :thinking:
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sat Jan 15, 2005 2:39 pm ]
Post subject: 
I think Jeff's $22.1 million projection for MTF is a bit too low too.
Author:  Levy [ Sat Jan 15, 2005 2:43 pm ]
Post subject: 
60,12% That happens when you predict out of the blue :razz: :razz: :razz: 8-[
Author:  The Scottie [ Sat Jan 15, 2005 2:45 pm ]
Post subject: 
That Lemony Snickets prediction is too low. Here is how I see it.

Friday - .9
Saturday - 2.0 (+122%)
Sunday - 1.5 (-25%)
Monday - 1.6 (+5%)
Weekend - 6 million.
Author:  The Scottie [ Sat Jan 15, 2005 2:48 pm ]
Post subject: 
This is my score BTW

Rank Film Predicted Estimate Est. Accuracy
1 Coach Carter 22.1 / 30 73.67%
2 Meet The Fockers 21.6 / 22.1 97.74%
3 Racing Stripes 15.1 / 18.5 81.62%
4 In Good Company 8.0 / 17 47.06%
5 White Noise 13.0 / 14.3 90.91%
6 Elektra 19.4 / 14 61.43%
7 The Aviator 6.3 / 5.9 93.22%
8 Lemony Snicket 5.6 / 5.7 98.25%
9 The Phantom of the Opera 3.6 / 4.1 87.80%
10 House of Flying Daggers 3.1 / 3 96.67%

Average
OVERALL (estimate) 82.84%
New Release 72.24%
Still in Theater 87.38%

Whew, kept my score above an 80.
Author:  Jeff 42 [ Sat Jan 15, 2005 2:56 pm ]
Post subject: 
Dr. Lecter wrote:
I think Jeff's $22.1 million projection for MTF is a bit too low too.


I used the same Saturday increase as last weekend, and Sunday and Monday decreases similar to those of movies like Along Came Polly and Something's Gotta Give from last year. It should be a fairly accurate projection, I think. I mainly decided to make new projections because your Lemony projection looked to be way low (my projection might still be low for that, I went a bit conservative on it).

This is my first post, by the way, I finally decided to register here.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sat Jan 15, 2005 3:02 pm ]
Post subject: 
Jeff 42 wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
I think Jeff's $22.1 million projection for MTF is a bit too low too.


I used the same Saturday increase as last weekend, and Sunday and Monday decreases similar to those of movies like Along Came Polly and Something's Gotta Give from last year. It should be a fairly accurate projection, I think. I mainly decided to make new projections because your Lemony projection looked to be way low (my projection might still be low for that, I went a bit conservative on it).

This is my first post, by the way, I finally decided to register here.


I achieved that you've joined by my post! \:D/ Welcome to WOKJ ;)

Anyway, I kept LS low because it has never performed like a casual family film. It has always gotten good multiplier, but never great ones. I still gave it a better one then to most other films, but I doubt it'll cross $5.5 million.

As for Meet the Fockers, I think that ACP and SGG are not good comparisons because they are romcoms and romcoms usually don't have great weekend multipliers because people usually see them Friday night. I don't think MTF falls into that category.
Author:  Jason Ng [ Sat Jan 15, 2005 5:03 pm ]
Post subject: 
Coach Carter - (20.4 / 30) -- Accuracy: 68.00%
Meet The Fockers - (25 / 22.1) -- Accuracy: 86.88%
Racing Stripes - (17 / 18.5) -- Accuracy: 91.89%
In Good Company - (8.7 / 17) -- Accuracy: 51.18%
White Noise - (14.4 / 14.3) -- Accuracy: 99.30%
Elektra - (23.9 / 14) -- Accuracy: 29.29%
The Aviator - (7.1 / 5.9) -- Accuracy: 79.66%
Lemony Snicket - (5.5 / 5.7) -- Accuracy: 96.49%
The Phantom of the Opera - (3.7 / 4.1) -- Accuracy: 90.24%
House of Flying Daggers - (2.1 / 3) -- Accuracy: 70.00%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 76.29%

New Release: 63.06%
Still in Theater: 81.96%

There's some pretty good scores here compared to the UC5/BO55 scores.
Author:  matatonio [ Sat Jan 15, 2005 5:08 pm ]
Post subject: 
Coach Carter - (19.2 / 30) -- Accuracy: 64.00%
Meet The Fockers - (24.8 / 22.1) -- Accuracy: 87.78%
Racing Stripes - (18.2 / 18.5) -- Accuracy: 98.38%
In Good Company - (9 / 17) -- Accuracy: 52.94%
White Noise - (13.2 / 14.3) -- Accuracy: 92.31%
Elektra - (23.1 / 14) -- Accuracy: 35.00%
The Aviator - (6.9 / 5.9) -- Accuracy: 83.05%
Lemony Snicket - (5.7 / 5.7) -- Accuracy: 100.00%
The Phantom of the Opera - (3.8 / 4.1) -- Accuracy: 92.68%
House of Flying Daggers - (3.1 / 3) -- Accuracy: 96.67%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 80.28%

New Release: 65.79%
Still in Theater: 86.49%

holy crap!, i cant believe i got 80%! :D
hope it holds up!
Author:  DP07 [ Sat Jan 15, 2005 9:36 pm ]
Post subject: 
Jeff 42 wrote:
This is my first post, by the way, I finally decided to register here.


Welcome! :wink:

BTW, my score is probably about 42% this week.
Author:  Anonymous [ Sat Jan 15, 2005 9:48 pm ]
Post subject: 
I have around 92.56%.

Or a bit less.
Author:  MGKC [ Sat Jan 15, 2005 10:44 pm ]
Post subject: 
Elektra - 34.29% ( 23.2 )
Coach Carter - 65.67% ( 19.7 )
Racing Stripes - 94.59% ( 17.5 )
Meet the Fockers - 93.67% ( 23.5 )
White Noise - 74.13% ( 10.6 )
The Aviator - 84.75% ( 6.8 )
Lemony Snicket - 98.25% ( 5.6 )
The Phantom of the Opera - 85.37% ( 3.5 )
House of Flying Daggers - 73.33% ( 2.2 )
In Good Company - 54.71% ( 9.3 )

Average: 75.873%

No like...
Author:  STEVE ROGERS [ Sun Jan 16, 2005 5:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Scores with Estimates
Samweis Gamdschie wrote:
Link:

http://www.boxofficefactor.com/calculat ... lation.htm



Derby (horrible): :mad:

Coach Carter - (14 / 29.6) -- Accuracy: 47.30%
Meet The Fockers - (22 / 25.5) -- Accuracy: 86.27%
Racing Stripes - (14 / 18.4) -- Accuracy: 76.09%
In Good Company - (5 / 16.7) -- Accuracy: 29.94%
Elektra - (20 / 15.8) -- Accuracy: 73.42%
White Noise - (13 / 15.4) -- Accuracy: 84.42%
The Aviator - (6.5 / 6.5) -- Accuracy: 100.00%
Lemony Snicket - (4.0 / 4.5) -- Accuracy: 88.89%
The Phantom of the Opera - (3.4 / 4.1) -- Accuracy: 82.93%
House of Flying Daggers - (2.5 / 3) -- Accuracy: 83.33%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 75.26%

New Release: 65.60%
Still in Theater: 79.40%


UC5 (*cough*): :???:

Coach Carter - (22.2 / 29.6) -- Accuracy: 75.00%
Meet The Fockers - (22.2 / 25.5) -- Accuracy: 87.06%
Racing Stripes - (14.0 / 18.4) -- Accuracy: 76.09%
In Good Company - (5.5 / 16.7) -- Accuracy: 32.93%
Elektra - (22.2 / 15.8) -- Accuracy: 59.49%
White Noise - (12.5 / 15.4) -- Accuracy: 81.17%
The Aviator - (6.6 / 6.5) -- Accuracy: 98.46%
Lemony Snicket - (5.0 / 4.5) -- Accuracy: 88.89%
The Phantom of the Opera - (3.7 / 4.1) -- Accuracy: 90.24%
House of Flying Daggers - (2.8 / 3) -- Accuracy: 93.33%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 78.27%

New Release: 70.19%
Still in Theater: 81.73%


See?? I told all of you WHITE NOISE would do better than most of you thought.. The movie RULED!!! :rock:
Author:  sako [ Sun Jan 16, 2005 2:05 pm ]
Post subject: 
With the new projections I went down to 85.85%
Author:  The Scottie [ Sun Jan 16, 2005 3:18 pm ]
Post subject: 
With these new projections, I went up to 83.81% :wink: .
Author:  sako [ Sun Jan 16, 2005 3:27 pm ]
Post subject: 
With my own projections I get a 80.22%, so I hope mine are wrong.
Author:  The Scottie [ Sun Jan 16, 2005 3:31 pm ]
Post subject: 
Yikes :shock:, with the new HOFD projection, my score will now be 77.26%.
Author:  The Scottie [ Mon Jan 17, 2005 4:08 pm ]
Post subject: 
With the BOM estimates, my score is now 79.54%.

Also, Brandon has an 80.10%. Talk about close competition.
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