Alone in the Dark and Hide and Seek will do better than what all of you think.
They look proper bo'
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| January Predictions http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=2743 |
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| Author: | MovieDude [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 7:42 am ] |
| Post subject: | January Predictions |
I hope there isn't a thread already exisiting, but I just wanted to make this to see what people are expecting from January. Personally, I see it starting off with a bang, but sputtering towards the end. This is just for new releases btw: January 7th: White Noise: 18/45 - I've seen tons of ads, and they're pretty effective. From what I've observed though, the WOM should be AWFUL. January 14th: Coach Carter: 14/42 - Samuel L. Jackson still sells, and though MTV Films occasionally have big misses (The Perfect Score), this has much better and less confused ads. Ashanti and some of the other names should probably bring in the urban crowd, though that could also hurt legs. Elektra: 22/55 - I'm getting Underworld vibes. The marketing isn't quite as good, but this won't be R. With Alias opening up right around now, it should get some free press with Garner, but I'm not sure if the character is very popular, and many may be growing bored of 2nd rate comic book characters. Racing Stripes: 13/45 - This looks pretty damn bad, but talking animals are always able to get at least a handfull of kids in, and this has proven to be a kind weekend to kids films, especially the talking animal ones (Snow Dogs, Kangaroo Jack.) January 19th (Wednesday): Assault on Precinct 13: 14/18/52 - Rogue Pictures has yet to prove they can open a film to huge numbers, but this one has a far better chance at good things then there two previous releases. The trailer is pretty solid, and Ethan Hawke, Lawerence Fishbourne, Ja Rule, and "from the makers of Training Day" should bring in a pretty strong amount of young guys looking for some good action. That R rating will hurt a bit, but shouldn't prove too nasty. January 21st: Are We There Yet: 21/73 - *sigh* Figures that the movie that looks the worst out of the entire month will probably make the best. The PG rating, Sony's strong marketing campaign, and Ice Cube should all combine to make AWTY a nice little hit. Looks really damn bad though. January 28th: Alone in the Dark: 9/20 - First off, Uwe Boll is the new Ed Wood. House of the Dead is the Plan 9 From Outer Space for the 21st century, and word is that Alone in the Dark is even worse. But you wouldn't know from Lion Gate's cleverly edited trailer, which makes it look half decent for the genre. The marketing should let it get a decent start, but Boogeyman opening the next weekend and horrid WOM should kill any legs quickly. Hide and Seek: 16/45 - Am I the only one who thinks that this is strangely similar to Secret Window? That thriller dissapointed with less then 20 million from Johnny Depp who was coming off an Oscar nomination and huge success with Pirates of the Carribean. Robert DeNiro recently had Meet the Fockers, but that's doesn't make him half as popular as Depp. If the twist is what I've heard, lemme say right now that people will be more then somewhat dissapointed. But as is, Fox's effective marketing should allow it to do pretty decent numbers. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 10:11 am ] |
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White Noise won't make that much. I'd be surprised if it cracked $10M opening weekend. Michael Keaton is just not a star, they should've gone with Sam Neil. Not exactly a star, but it would've made a better movie. For the month I think Elektra will open with the most, around $19M and finish with less than $50M. Racing Stripes will probably top $60M and be the highest grosser of the month. Big winners for January are gonna be Meet The Fockers and In Good Company. |
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| Author: | Jeff [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 11:27 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January Predictions |
January 7th: White Noise: Opening: $13 million/Total: $33 million January 14th: Coach Carter: Opening: $16 million/Total: $45 million Elektra: Opening: $25 million/Total: $65 million Racing Stripes: Opening: $14 million/Total: $60 million January 19th (Wednesday): Assault on Precinct 13: Opening: $22 million/Total: $75 million January 21st: Are We There Yet: Opening: $24 million/Total: $80 million January 28th: Alone in the Dark: Opening: $11 million/Total: $25 million Hide and Seek: Opening: $18 million/Total: $55 million |
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| Author: | Bodrul [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 11:58 am ] |
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January 7th: White Noise: Opening: $15 million/Total: $40 million January 14th: Coach Carter: Opening: $15 million/Total: $42 million Elektra: Opening: $22 million/Total: $63 million Racing Stripes: Opening: $21 million/Total: $70 million January 19th (Wednesday): Assault on Precinct 13: Opening: $17 million/Total: $68 million January 21st: Are We There Yet: Opening: $19 million/Total: $64 million January 28th: Alone in the Dark: Opening: $8 million/Total: $19 million Hide and Seek: Opening: $16 million/Total: $40 million |
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| Author: | Algren [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 12:07 pm ] |
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Alone in the Dark and Hide and Seek will do better than what all of you think. They look proper bo'
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| Author: | Jeff [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 12:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
I think Hide and Seek will do well. I saw the trailer for Alone in the Dark before Darkness...it just looks, bad. |
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| Author: | El Maskado [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 12:29 pm ] |
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There is some serious overprediction for Elektra. That movie looks exactly like Barbwire and both are comic book movies and PG-13 (well at least Garner can act much better than Pamela Anderson). The predictions for Racing Stripes are very low but you have to remember that the movie is being released in January where bad movies are always underestimated like Just Married, Kangaroo Jack and You Got Served. Racing Stripes should make at least 18 million since Garfield was able to get 24 million when everyone thought it would bomb. Hell look at Fat Albert and it surpassed everyones prediction Are We There Yet should make around Barbershop numbers about 18-24 million for its opening |
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| Author: | Algren [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 12:51 pm ] |
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RogueCommander wrote: I saw the trailer for Alone in the Dark before Darkness...it just looks, bad. Thats the one with Samantha Janus and Christian Slater, right? |
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| Author: | movies35 [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 12:51 pm ] |
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January 7th: White Noise: $12/$32 January 14th: Coach Carter: $19/$54 Elektra: $17/$49 Racing Stripes: $19/$64 January 19th (Wednesday): Assault on Precinct 13: $14/$62 January 21st: Are We There Yet: $24/$78 January 28th: Alone in the Dark: $9/$16 Hide and Seek: $16/$45 |
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| Author: | Jeff [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 12:58 pm ] |
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Algren wrote: RogueCommander wrote: I saw the trailer for Alone in the Dark before Darkness...it just looks, bad. Thats the one with Samantha Janus and Christian Slater, right? I think so. I'd have to check, the trailer didn't list any names. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 1:07 pm ] |
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RogueCommander wrote: Algren wrote: RogueCommander wrote: I saw the trailer for Alone in the Dark before Darkness...it just looks, bad. Thats the one with Samantha Janus and Christian Slater, right? I think so. I'd have to check, the trailer didn't list any names. Cool, i think it may be. |
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| Author: | Mister Ecks [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 1:40 pm ] |
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Elektra will be either really big opening and terrible legs, or the average Elektra predictions you hear about on here. Probably 27/68. I'll do more later! |
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| Author: | El Maskado [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 1:45 pm ] |
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Mr. X wrote: Elektra will be either really big opening and terrible legs, or the average Elektra predictions you hear about on here. Probably 27/68. I'll do more later! You sure its not the Garner fanatic in you that may be overpredicting its opening. |
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| Author: | sako [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 7:47 pm ] |
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Electra should pass 50m. I say 21/56 |
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| Author: | zingy [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 9:05 pm ] |
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White Noise is being underpredicted like The Forgotten was. |
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| Author: | El Maskado [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 9:37 pm ] |
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Zingaling wrote: White Noise is being underpredicted like The Forgotten was. You think lightning will strike twice for all these "Ring" type clones? |
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| Author: | MovieDude [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 9:53 pm ] |
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El_masked_esteROIDe_user wrote: Zingaling wrote: White Noise is being underpredicted like The Forgotten was. You think lightning will strike twice for all these "Ring" type clones? Just because a movie is a supernatural thriller doesn't make it a Ring clone. :wink: And yes, lightning will strike twice if the marketing campaign is strong, and this one definitely has been. |
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| Author: | zingy [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 10:57 pm ] |
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The whole genre is always underpredicted, to be honest. Hell, even Darkness was underpredicted. People loved The Ring. White Noise looks really creepy, and I think it'll do really well. Or, atleast The Butterfly Effect numbers. |
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| Author: | zingy [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 11:18 pm ] |
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January 7th White Noise Opening: $21.0 million Total: $56.7 million January 14th Coach Carter Opening: $12.0 million Total: $38.0 million Elektra Opening: $26.0 million Total: $70.2 million Racing Stripes Opening: $8.8 million Total: $28.1 million January 21st Assault of Precinct 13 Opening: $15.0 million Total: $40.0 million Are We There Yet? Opening: $9.0 million Total: $32.0 million January 28th Alone in the Dark Opening: $8.0 million Total: $18.0 million Hide and Seek Opening: $18.0 million Total: $47.0 million |
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| Author: | Jeff [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 11:25 pm ] |
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Zingaling wrote: White Noise is being underpredicted like The Forgotten was. Maybe it is my personal bias. I just think it looks bad. |
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| Author: | El Maskado [ Wed Dec 29, 2004 12:42 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January Predictions |
MovieDude wrote: January 28th: Alone in the Dark: 9/20 - First off, Uwe Boll is the new Ed Wood. House of the Dead is the Plan 9 From Outer Space for the 21st century, and word is that Alone in the Dark is even worse. But you wouldn't know from Lion Gate's cleverly edited trailer, which makes it look half decent for the genre. The marketing should let it get a decent start, but Boogeyman opening the next weekend and horrid WOM should kill any legs quickly. . 
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| Author: | andaroo1 [ Wed Dec 29, 2004 3:54 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Million Dollar Baby goes wide on the 21st. If it's as good as touted, it could bring in a pretty adult penny. |
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| Author: | MovieDude [ Wed Dec 29, 2004 6:35 am ] |
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andaroo wrote: Million Dollar Baby goes wide on the 21st. If it's as good as touted, it could bring in a pretty adult penny. I definitely agree. In Good Company also goes wide Jan. 14th. I'm just not predicting those as it's waaayyy too hard to predict weeks off, all depends on how the theaters increase and at one points. |
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