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New Year's Weekend Predictions
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Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sat Dec 25, 2004 1:39 pm ]
Post subject:  New Year's Weekend Predictions
Well, there are no new openers really, but I'd say for the holdovers:

Meet the Fockers - $33.1 million
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - $16.2 million
The Phantom of the Opera (if there is no expansion) - $4.2 million
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Dec 26, 2004 12:53 pm ]
Post subject: 
Maybe this one can be stickied later today ;)
Author:  Bodrul [ Sun Dec 26, 2004 2:43 pm ]
Post subject: 
Meet the Fockers - $36.1 million
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - $19.2 million
Author:  Tyler [ Sun Dec 26, 2004 2:47 pm ]
Post subject: 
1) Meet the Fockers-$34.4 million; -23.1%; Week 1
2) Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events-$13.8 million; +10.4%; Week 3
3) Fat Albert-$13.5 million; +8.7%; Week 2
4) The Aviator-$10.9 million; +15.3%; Week 3
5) Ocean's 12-$8.4 million; -3.4%; Week 4
6) Spanglish-$5.3 million; +6.6%; Week 3
7) The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou-$5.3 million; +9%; Week 4
8) The Phantom of the Opera-$4.7 million; +11.5%; Week 2
9) Darkness-$4.6 million; -28.3%; Week 2
10) The Polar Express-$4.3 million; -31%; Week 8
Author:  BJ [ Sun Dec 26, 2004 4:03 pm ]
Post subject: 
Early predictions 8)

1. Meat the Fockers - 39.40m -20%
2. Fat Albert - 14.28m +15%
3. The Aviator - 13.66m +45%
4. Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - 13.25m +6%
5. Oceans Twelve - 9.69m +12%
6. The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou - 6.62m +35%
7. The Phantom of the Opera - 6.30m +50%
8. Spanglish - 6.00m +20%
9. Darkness - 5.92m -8%
10. National Treasure - 5.29m +30%
Author:  Libs [ Sun Dec 26, 2004 6:16 pm ]
Post subject: 
1. Meet the Fockers - $36 million
2. A Series of Unfortunate Events - $14 million
3. Fat Albert - $13 million
4. The Aviator - $11 million
5. Ocean's Twelve - $10 million
6. Spanglish - $6 million
7. Darkness - $6 million
8. The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou - $5.5 million
9. Phantom of the Opera - $5 million
10. National Treasure - $5 million
Author:  MGKC [ Sun Dec 26, 2004 10:50 pm ]
Post subject: 
1. Meet the Fockers - $34.6 (-22%)
2. Fat Albert - $16.1 (+30%)
3. The Aviator - $11.8 (+25%)
4. Lemony Snicket - $11.3 (-10%)
5. Ocean's 12 - $8.3 (-3%)
6. Darkness - $7.0 (+10%)
7. The Life Aquatic - $6.1 (+25%)
8. Spanglish - $5.0 (0%)
9. The Phantom of the Opera - $3.9 (-8%)
10. The Polar Express - $3.8 (-39%)
Author:  zingy [ Sun Dec 26, 2004 11:45 pm ]
Post subject: 
1. Meet the Fockers - $33.5 million
2. Fat Albert - $15.8 million
3. A Series of Unfortunate Events - $14.3 million
4. The Aviator - $11.7 million
5. Ocean's Twelve - $9.0 million
Author:  Bodrul [ Mon Dec 27, 2004 9:14 am ]
Post subject: 
1) Meet the Fockers-$38 million
2) Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events-$16.0 million
3) Fat Albert-$13.5 million
4) The Aviator-$11.5 million
5) Ocean's 12-$10 million
6) Spanglish-$6 million
7) The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou-$5.5 million
8)The Phantom of the Opera-$4.7 million
9) Darkness-$4.8 million
10) The Polar Express-$4.8 million
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Mon Dec 27, 2004 11:17 am ]
Post subject: 
1. Meet the Fockers - $33.1 million
2. Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - $14.4 million
3. Fat Albert - $12.1 million
4. The Aviator - $11.9 million
5. Ocean's Twelve - $10.5 million
Author:  El Maskado [ Mon Dec 27, 2004 12:46 pm ]
Post subject: 
Can anyone explain to me why people are giving some of these movies increases and very low drops? I checked the data from movies week drop from X-mas weekend to New years weekend and they average about -25% drop. That was the data from 2001-Jan 2004
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Mon Dec 27, 2004 1:55 pm ]
Post subject: 
El_masked_esteROIDe_user wrote:
Can anyone explain to me why people are giving some of these movies increases and very low drops? I checked the data from movies week drop from X-mas weekend to New years weekend and they average about -25% drop. That was the data from 2001-Jan 2004


Check the data of 1999! :D
Author:  Anonymous [ Mon Dec 27, 2004 2:46 pm ]
Post subject: 
Hmm...five year passed, so moviegoers habits could change in that time. And then there weren't such big hits as Meet the Fockers.

Oh well, if with actuals this weekend is close to Christmas one in 1999, then I'd believe that New Year's one will be also close to the one of 1999.
Author:  El Maskado [ Mon Dec 27, 2004 3:10 pm ]
Post subject: 
Nebs wrote:
Hmm...five year passed, so moviegoers habits could change in that time. And then there weren't such big hits as Meet the Fockers.

Oh well, if with actuals this weekend is close to Christmas one in 1999, then I'd believe that New Year's one will be also close to the one of 1999.


Not to mention even in 1999, the X-mas weekend had movies dropping in the 24% week to week range, not like this past x-mas weekend where movies like Lemony Snicket and Oceans 12 dropped a little more than 50%. I cant see where the increases and low one digit drop for this New years weekend is coming from. Like Nebs mentioned, multipliers are different for 1999, the only similarity between 1999 and 2004 are the dates. I would expect a 24% drop for each movie and about a 35% drop for Meet the Fockers
Author:  El Maskado [ Mon Dec 27, 2004 3:10 pm ]
Post subject: 
Nebs wrote:
Hmm...five year passed, so moviegoers habits could change in that time. And then there weren't such big hits as Meet the Fockers.

Oh well, if with actuals this weekend is close to Christmas one in 1999, then I'd believe that New Year's one will be also close to the one of 1999.


Not to mention even in 1999, the X-mas weekend had movies dropping in the 24% week to week range, not like this past x-mas weekend where movies like Lemony Snicket and Oceans 12 dropped a little more than 50%. I cant see where the increases and low one digit drop for this New years weekend is coming from. Like Nebs mentioned, multipliers are different for 1999, the only similarity between 1999 and 2004 are the dates. I would expect a 24% drop for each movie and about a 35% drop for Meet the Fockers
Author:  Alex Y. [ Mon Dec 27, 2004 9:08 pm ]
Post subject: 
1. Meet the Fockers - $37.5 million
2. Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - $15 million
3. Fat Albert - $12 million
4. The Aviator - $8.2 million
5. Ocean's Twelve - $8.1 million
6. Spanglish - $5.1 million
7. The Polar Express - $4.5 million
8. Darkness - $4.4 million
9. National Treasure - $4.1 million
10. The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou - $3.9 million
11. The Phantom of the Opera - $3.7 million
Author:  Samweis Gamdschie [ Mon Dec 27, 2004 10:15 pm ]
Post subject: 
1) Meet the Fockers - $25-50m
2) Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - $10-20m
3) Fat Albert - $10-16m
4) The Aviator - $10-16m
5) Ocean's 12 - $7-13m
6) Spanglish - $4-8m
7) The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou - $4-8m
8)The Phantom of the Opera - $3-7m
9) Darkness - $3-7m
10) The Polar Express - $3.7m

:?
Author:  STEVE ROGERS [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 1:34 am ]
Post subject: 
Samweis Gamdschie wrote:
1) Meet the Fockers - $25-50m
2) Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - $10-20m
3) Fat Albert - $10-16m
4) The Aviator - $10-16m
5) Ocean's 12 - $7-13m
6) Spanglish - $4-8m
7) The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou - $4-8m
8)The Phantom of the Opera - $3-7m
9) Darkness - $3-7m
10) The Polar Express - $3.7m

:?


Meet The Fockers will kick all their asses surprisingly cause the adults finally have a movie to flock to, but Lemony Snicket will plummel at the box office.. Jim Carrey should fire his agent for the last 2 movies he's booked him with and ring in 2005 with a fresh start and stick to what he does best: COMEDY not DRAMA...
Author:  Bodrul [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 8:51 am ]
Post subject: 
BKB_The_Man wrote:
Samweis Gamdschie wrote:
1) Meet the Fockers - $25-50m
2) Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - $10-20m
3) Fat Albert - $10-16m
4) The Aviator - $10-16m
5) Ocean's 12 - $7-13m
6) Spanglish - $4-8m
7) The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou - $4-8m
8)The Phantom of the Opera - $3-7m
9) Darkness - $3-7m
10) The Polar Express - $3.7m

:?


Meet The Fockers will kick all their asses surprisingly cause the adults finally have a movie to flock to, but Lemony Snicket will plummel at the box office.. Jim Carrey should fire his agent for the last 2 movies he's booked him with and ring in 2005 with a fresh start and stick to what he does best: COMEDY not DRAMA...


Lemony snickets a drama? Eternal sunshine wasn't really a bomb aswell. Weren't you saying Fockers will bomb bad a few days ago? 100-120million tops?
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Tue Dec 28, 2004 9:47 am ]
Post subject: 
El_masked_esteROIDe_user wrote:
Nebs wrote:
Hmm...five year passed, so moviegoers habits could change in that time. And then there weren't such big hits as Meet the Fockers.

Oh well, if with actuals this weekend is close to Christmas one in 1999, then I'd believe that New Year's one will be also close to the one of 1999.


Not to mention even in 1999, the X-mas weekend had movies dropping in the 24% week to week range, not like this past x-mas weekend where movies like Lemony Snicket and Oceans 12 dropped a little more than 50%. I cant see where the increases and low one digit drop for this New years weekend is coming from. Like Nebs mentioned, multipliers are different for 1999, the only similarity between 1999 and 2004 are the dates. I would expect a 24% drop for each movie and about a 35% drop for Meet the Fockers


It has nothing to do with the increases or decreases in 1999. The pattern is what matters. The pattern 1999 was the same as this year and if I didn't fully believe in the same pattern this year, I wouldn't have scored 84% this weekend :lol:

The weekend itself was different, but the multipliers, decreases and increases were similar. Right now I am predicting increases for most movies, but once we know some dailies, that might change. I will just follow the daily pattern of 1999. :)
Author:  STEVE ROGERS [ Wed Dec 29, 2004 12:00 am ]
Post subject: 
hans wrote:
BKB_The_Man wrote:
Samweis Gamdschie wrote:
1) Meet the Fockers - $25-50m
2) Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - $10-20m
3) Fat Albert - $10-16m
4) The Aviator - $10-16m
5) Ocean's 12 - $7-13m
6) Spanglish - $4-8m
7) The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou - $4-8m
8)The Phantom of the Opera - $3-7m
9) Darkness - $3-7m
10) The Polar Express - $3.7m

:?


Meet The Fockers will kick all their asses surprisingly cause the adults finally have a movie to flock to, but Lemony Snicket will plummel at the box office.. Jim Carrey should fire his agent for the last 2 movies he's booked him with and ring in 2005 with a fresh start and stick to what he does best: COMEDY not DRAMA...


Lemony snickets a drama? Eternal sunshine wasn't really a bomb aswell. Weren't you saying Fockers will bomb bad a few days ago? 100-120million tops?


Yeah I did say that and surprisngly, it's doing better than I thought and I think it's because there just isn't anything good out right now and that is the best thing out, which isn't saying all that much to.. I still say sequels to successful comedies are the hardest to make in trying to make it fresher or compareable to the 1st film and I guess Fockers got lucky.. :wink: As for Lemony Snickets being a drama??? Well, it certainly wasn't quote: "Laugh out Loud" like the commercials make it out to be and if anything, it was depressing... The movie basically sucked for the most part to put it quite simple.. :lol:
Author:  Anonymous [ Wed Dec 29, 2004 5:13 pm ]
Post subject: 
Oh well, perhaps would be better to just skip Derby this week, as prolly wont be here tommorow and til sunday or monday.

Oh well...

Meet the Fockers - $32m
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - $13.4m
Fat Albert - $12.2m
The Aviator - $10m
Ocean's 12 - $8.2m
The Polar Express - $5.4m
Spanglish - $3.7m
Darkness - $3.7m
Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou - $3.7m
Phantom of the Opera - $3.7m
Author:  Tyler [ Wed Dec 29, 2004 6:32 pm ]
Post subject: 
BKB_The_Man wrote:
Yeah I did say that and surprisngly, it's doing better than I thought and I think it's because there just isn't anything good out right now and that is the best thing out, which isn't saying all that much to.. I still say sequels to successful comedies are the hardest to make in trying to make it fresher or compareable to the 1st film and I guess Fockers got lucky.. :wink: As for Lemony Snickets being a drama??? Well, it certainly wasn't quote: "Laugh out Loud" like the commercials make it out to be and if anything, it was depressing... The movie basically sucked for the most part to put it quite simple.. :lol:


Still, calling Lemony Snicket a DRAMA?! :lol:

And if you saw the movie, you would know that Carrey was at his usual rubberfaceitude.
Author:  xiayun [ Thu Dec 30, 2004 5:52 pm ]
Post subject: 
Final predictions:

1. Meet the Fockers 40.5 (-12.2%)
2. Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events 13.0 (3.1%)
3. Fat Albert 11.3 (12.8%)
4. The Aviator 9.0 (4.3%)
5. Ocean's Twelve 8.5 (1.2%)
6. The Polar Express 6.0 (-8.1%)
7. Spanglish 5.5 (18.5%)
8. The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou 4.5 (-1.0%)
9. The Phantom of the Opera 4.4 (9.9%)
10. National Treasure 4.4 (11.0%)
11. Darkness 3.7 (-40.0%)
12. Incredibles 3.5 (44.8%)
Author:  MGKC [ Thu Dec 30, 2004 9:46 pm ]
Post subject: 
Final Predictions:

1. Meet the Fockers - $37.8 (-18%)
2. A Series of Unfornate Events - $12.0 (-5%)
3. Fat Albert - $9.8 (-2%)
4. The Aviator - $7.8 (-10%)
5. Ocean's Twelve - $7.0 (-17%)
6. The Polar Express - $4.6 (-30%)
7. Spanglish - $4.4 (-5%)
8. The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou - $4.2 (-8%)
9. Darkness - $4.1 (-33%)
10. The Phantom of the Opera - $3.8 (-5%)

There's really no very well-received movie out right now that could get an increase (in the top 10). Fat Albert, in my opinion has the best chance of an increase.
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