World of KJ :: View topic - Mission: Impossible: III Prediction Thread

DP07 wrote:

Heh, there is no way this earns more then The Da Vinci Code. The last one had weak WOM for a blockbuster, and given that many won't return, and I don't see any reason this should do any better then the average Cruise film with 100m-130m. Furthermore, it could go lower with Tom's bad publicity.

Plus, people forget that MI2 was easily the most hyped film of 2000. This time it won't even be close with films like POTC 2, Superman, and The Da Vinci Code to overshadow it.

Right now I'll go with:
43m/110m

However, there is more downward potential then upward IMO.

Dr. Lecter wrote:

DP07 wrote:

Hahaha, I am willing to bet with you right here, right now that it'll do quite a bit better.

This is your "Troy" once again for which you started predicting with a total of around $70 million.,

El_Masked_esteROIDe_user wrote:

In a sense I do agree with Dp07 although I would probably change mine to a 150 million prediction. All the high octane movies released this year all bombed so it says the public has grown tired of the Bruckheimer explosion type movies. MI3 definately fits in that category. While having Abrahams directing isnt bad, it will play out like Alias which has extremely low ratings. I think people in general are tired of these types of movies. And the last factor is how Cruise has gone loonie would definately take a toll on its receipts. I say theres a possibility it will come under the first MI gross

Zingaling wrote:

Whether Tom Cruise "went crazy" last summer doesn't lower his box-office drawing power.

El_Masked_esteROIDe_user wrote:

Yes it will considering WOTW didnt reach 300 million as half of the people predicting. The low end ones were 170-220 million. So yes the public has gone tired of him. Watch and see!

Zingaling wrote:

Then again, the main three action bombs of the year (XXX: State of the Union, The Island, Stealth) don't quite compare to Mission: Impossible III. XXX didn't have the original star, The Island had awful marketing and no draws, and Stealth had the marketing, but no draws.

Whether Tom Cruise "went crazy" last summer doesn't lower his box-office drawing power.

Dr. Lecter wrote:

DP07 wrote:

Hahaha, I am willing to bet with you right here, right now that it'll do quite a bit better.

This is your "Troy" once again for which you started predicting with a total of around $70 million.,

Author:	MovieDude [ Mon Dec 12, 2005 11:28 am ]
Post subject:	Mission: Impossible: III Prediction Thread
I didn't see one and with the teaser trailer having just came up, what do you guys predict? With that May 5th opening, I think that this one is going to have a huge opening weekend, followed by some pretty awful legs thanks to so much competition. Think 70-75/190

Author:	El Maskado [ Mon Dec 12, 2005 12:48 pm ]
Post subject:
L Ron Hubbard is calling Tom Cruise from beyong the planet. The movie will have bad legs since Tom Cruise really embarrassed himself with his scientology hocus pocus last year, it didnt affect WOTW since it was advertised as an event movie but it will affect MI3. I say 62 million/138 million And JJ Abrams will do a flashback of every single character in the movie that MI3 will only be about a movie that actually takes place in a 30 min time span

Author:	Riggs [ Mon Dec 12, 2005 12:58 pm ]
Post subject:
Hmm, M:I-3 is one of my most anticipated movies next year. I loved the first one and I loved the second one. But Tom Cruise really put his image down with his Katie Holmes relationship, at least for me a bit. I liked the teaser, not loved it but it looks like there will be a lot of great action. I think it will make a bit less than M:I-2. Oh and I don't think it will have that bad legs. Opening: $65,0 Mio. Final: $202,1 Mio.

Author:	Dr. Lecter [ Mon Dec 12, 2005 1:02 pm ]
Post subject:
The teaser trailer is good, the last movie, despite bad reviews, still had quite decent legs and it gets to open the summer with no real competition by the time it comes out, so a huge opening is guaranteed. It is also bound to open in 3,800+ theatres. The legs should be standard, but no Cruise movie usually has bad legs, so I expect them to be decent again. Early Predictions: Opening weekend - $77 million Total gross - $204 million

Author:	Harry Warden [ Mon Dec 12, 2005 1:47 pm ]
Post subject:
60/220

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Author:	choubachou [ Mon Dec 12, 2005 2:15 pm ]
Post subject:
It'll probably have a huge opening, above $80M. So I'm guessing it does at the very least $200M.

Author:	zingy [ Mon Dec 12, 2005 4:16 pm ]
Post subject:
I think it'll steal the record from The Day After Tomorrow for highest opening without making $200 million total. Opening Weekend: $75 million Total Gross: $188 million

Author:	The Dark Shape [ Mon Dec 12, 2005 4:48 pm ]
Post subject:
81/235

Author:	MadGez [ Mon Dec 12, 2005 6:38 pm ]
Post subject:
Yeah I kinda agree with most people - big opening, mediocre legs. Maybe similar to X2 legs. For now: $74m/$193m

Author:	O [ Mon Dec 12, 2005 7:06 pm ]
Post subject:
Even if Cruise is a loser, people love this type of movie to start off the summer box office season. But, I'm sure he and Katie will time their wedding (or baby) to coincide with this film's release, so that's bound to hurt business if its overexposure again. $68.3 m/$184.4 m

Author:	trixster [ Mon Dec 12, 2005 10:19 pm ]
Post subject:
Pretty much what everyone else is saying. $65-75 million opening, $190-230 million total. Oh, and this looks a ton better than the shitty M:i-2.

Author:	MikeQ. [ Mon Dec 12, 2005 11:27 pm ]
Post subject:
Trailer looks pretty sweet; looks like the usual cool Mission Impossible awesomeness. Can't get any better than that. And man, you gotta love that MI music. I think it's going to be another success, because it looks like the perfect action fun that I want in a film like that. PEACE, Mike.

Author:	O [ Tue Dec 13, 2005 12:09 am ]
Post subject:
Is the Katie Holmes cameo rumor true? Just kidding

Author:	Bryan_smith [ Tue Dec 13, 2005 7:50 pm ]
Post subject:
I have to say, that trailer is quite impressive.. should play very well..

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Author:	DP07 [ Wed Dec 14, 2005 5:13 am ]
Post subject:
Heh, there is no way this earns more then The Da Vinci Code. The last one had weak WOM for a blockbuster, and given that many won't return, and I don't see any reason this should do any better then the average Cruise film with 100m-130m. Furthermore, it could go lower with Tom's bad publicity. Plus, people forget that MI2 was easily the most hyped film of 2000. This time it won't even be close with films like POTC 2, Superman, and The Da Vinci Code to overshadow it. Right now I'll go with: 43m/110m However, there is more downward potential then upward IMO.

Author:	KC [ Wed Dec 14, 2005 11:34 am ]
Post subject:
Finally we have a blockbuster to open the summer with unlike this year with Kingdom of Heaven. Even if Cruise has lost it he still brings in the crowds ala WOTW. I see this opening huge. 83/220

Author:	Dr. Lecter [ Wed Dec 14, 2005 12:12 pm ]
Post subject:
DP07 wrote: Heh, there is no way this earns more then The Da Vinci Code. The last one had weak WOM for a blockbuster, and given that many won't return, and I don't see any reason this should do any better then the average Cruise film with 100m-130m. Furthermore, it could go lower with Tom's bad publicity. Plus, people forget that MI2 was easily the most hyped film of 2000. This time it won't even be close with films like POTC 2, Superman, and The Da Vinci Code to overshadow it. Right now I'll go with: 43m/110m However, there is more downward potential then upward IMO. Hahaha, I am willing to bet with you right here, right now that it'll do quite a bit better. This is your "Troy" once again for which you started predicting with a total of around $70 million.,

Author:	El Maskado [ Mon Dec 19, 2005 4:05 pm ]
Post subject:
Dr. Lecter wrote: DP07 wrote: Heh, there is no way this earns more then The Da Vinci Code. The last one had weak WOM for a blockbuster, and given that many won't return, and I don't see any reason this should do any better then the average Cruise film with 100m-130m. Furthermore, it could go lower with Tom's bad publicity. Plus, people forget that MI2 was easily the most hyped film of 2000. This time it won't even be close with films like POTC 2, Superman, and The Da Vinci Code to overshadow it. Right now I'll go with: 43m/110m However, there is more downward potential then upward IMO. Hahaha, I am willing to bet with you right here, right now that it'll do quite a bit better. This is your "Troy" once again for which you started predicting with a total of around $70 million., In a sense I do agree with Dp07 although I would probably change mine to a 150 million prediction. All the high octane movies released this year all bombed so it says the public has grown tired of the Bruckheimer explosion type movies. MI3 definately fits in that category. While having Abrahams directing isnt bad, it will play out like Alias which has extremely low ratings. I think people in general are tired of these types of movies. And the last factor is how Cruise has gone loonie would definately take a toll on its receipts. I say theres a possibility it will come under the first MI gross

Author:	zingy [ Mon Dec 19, 2005 4:14 pm ]
Post subject:
El_Masked_esteROIDe_user wrote: In a sense I do agree with Dp07 although I would probably change mine to a 150 million prediction. All the high octane movies released this year all bombed so it says the public has grown tired of the Bruckheimer explosion type movies. MI3 definately fits in that category. While having Abrahams directing isnt bad, it will play out like Alias which has extremely low ratings. I think people in general are tired of these types of movies. And the last factor is how Cruise has gone loonie would definately take a toll on its receipts. I say theres a possibility it will come under the first MI gross Then again, the main three action bombs of the year (XXX: State of the Union, The Island, Stealth) don't quite compare to Mission: Impossible III. XXX didn't have the original star, The Island had awful marketing and no draws, and Stealth had the marketing, but no draws. Whether Tom Cruise "went crazy" last summer doesn't lower his box-office drawing power.

Author:	El Maskado [ Mon Dec 19, 2005 4:19 pm ]
Post subject:
Zingaling wrote: Whether Tom Cruise "went crazy" last summer doesn't lower his box-office drawing power. Yes it will considering WOTW didnt reach 300 million as half of the people predicting. The low end ones were 170-220 million. So yes the public has gone tired of him. Watch and see! The high octane movies bombing can be argued though since movies like Con Air, Broken Arrow etc were all hits even though they had stars who werent known as action stars back then

Author:	BJ [ Mon Dec 19, 2005 4:23 pm ]
Post subject:
BJs Prediction: Opening Wknd: 86m Domestic Total: 258m I could be be over estimating this film big time

Author:	Caius [ Mon Dec 19, 2005 4:23 pm ]
Post subject:
I'm leaning towards $52m and a $140m total. People remember how shitty MI: 1 was and how much worse 2 was. I pray people learn there lesson this time.

Author:	zingy [ Mon Dec 19, 2005 4:25 pm ]
Post subject:
El_Masked_esteROIDe_user wrote: Yes it will considering WOTW didnt reach 300 million as half of the people predicting. The low end ones were 170-220 million. So yes the public has gone tired of him. Watch and see! Just because it doesn't make $300 million, it's because the public got tired of Cruise? So, basically, what you're saying is that 10.1 million people didn't see War of the Worlds because of Cruise? Let's not forget that it's his highest grossing movie ever. I don't buy this arguement.

Author:	El Maskado [ Mon Dec 19, 2005 4:44 pm ]
Post subject:
Zingaling wrote: Then again, the main three action bombs of the year (XXX: State of the Union, The Island, Stealth) don't quite compare to Mission: Impossible III. XXX didn't have the original star, The Island had awful marketing and no draws, and Stealth had the marketing, but no draws. Whether Tom Cruise "went crazy" last summer doesn't lower his box-office drawing power. Im not saying that MI3 will bomb like the 3 action films I mentioned. Im stating the 3 movies bombing has shown that the public has grown tired of those types of movies. Heck when a movie like The Rock or Gone in 60 Seconds,XXX can make 100 million, why wouldnt Stealth or XXX2 do so like majority of people were predicting. That was my point. Those films may not compare to MI but they follow the same formula. Cruises' star has fallen despite what you said when the movie has received the 2nd/3rd biggest hype but manages less than 250 million despite it being from a classic remake and Spielberg and its supposed rumor of a 200 million budget. Cruise also wouldnt of forfeited his salary to take a 15% movie cut if it didnt guarantee at least 300 million

Author:	DP07 [ Mon Dec 19, 2005 11:26 pm ]
Post subject:
Dr. Lecter wrote: DP07 wrote: Heh, there is no way this earns more then The Da Vinci Code. The last one had weak WOM for a blockbuster, and given that many won't return, and I don't see any reason this should do any better then the average Cruise film with 100m-130m. Furthermore, it could go lower with Tom's bad publicity. Plus, people forget that MI2 was easily the most hyped film of 2000. This time it won't even be close with films like POTC 2, Superman, and The Da Vinci Code to overshadow it. Right now I'll go with: 43m/110m However, there is more downward potential then upward IMO. Hahaha, I am willing to bet with you right here, right now that it'll do quite a bit better. This is your "Troy" once again for which you started predicting with a total of around $70 million., I don't regret my Troy prediction. I'm sure to this day that it would not have opened as well as it did if they had not marketed it very well over the final two weeks. That's when I increased my prediction over 120m, and it was because of that advertising that I did so. Besides, that 70m prediction was still closer then the majority at the time. Besides a few like Torrino, most over over 200m. I think it went to prove my point that people tend to overpredict those big budgeted films without fanbases that rely on special effects and starpower.