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 WoKJ Weekend Predictions. 
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King Albert!
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Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:04 pm
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Post WoKJ Weekend Predictions.
My weekend article.

1. 40 Year Old Virgin - 13.7m (-36%)
2. The Brothers Grimm - 13.1m
3. Red Eye - 8.1m (-50%)
4. Four Brothers - 8.0m (-36%)
5. March of the Penguins - 6.4m (-2%)
6. Wedding Crashers - 6.2m (-22%)
7. The Cave - 5.4m
8. The Skeleton Key - 4.0m (-48%)
9. Valiant - 3.5m (-40%)
10. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - 2.9m (-35%)
Undiscovered - 1.4m

Top Ten Cume - 71.3m

Two weekends ago, the number one movie had the words Four and Brothers in it's title. Last weekend, the number one movie had a 4 in it's title. This weekend, the big opener has the word Brothers in it's title.

The Brother's Grimm will show off their magic in 3087 houses over the weekend. The marketing has been good throughout the last few weeks, but the movie hasn't been getting alot of fanfare or promotion. The trailers have been a little tricky on what the kind of the movie this is, so it might not attract the general audience. But the stars will attract the women, and lots of theaters are giving this movie double bookings. The per screen average should be similar to Musketeer, meaning that a $13.1 million weekend should be in store.

The weekend's other freshmen opener will open in 2195 caves. The Cave has choosen a bad time to open, when two other horror movies have already opened in the two previous weekend with strong results. Also, the studio has no conifidence in the movie at all. Many theaters are refusing to give this movie double prints. But since horror movies are popular this year, this movie might get some attention. A per screen average of under $2500 will give this scare fest a $5.4 million weekend.

Opening in 1304 theaters, Undiscovered will definetly live up to it's title. This movie is just a big turkey ever since Ashlee Simpson was casted. Even the reviews are very very very bad. This looks like a flop of Glitter and From Justin to Kelly proportions. There has been very little marketing for this, and no theaters are giving this turkey doulbe prints. The per screen average will get just barely $1,000, giving it a paltry $1.4 million, and a quick trip to the video store will follow.

As for holdovers, The 40 Year Old Virgin will be helped by the great word of mouth this movie has been receiving, and it's Saturday increase. There is also no direct competition for this hit comedy, though it will not declines as impressive as Wedding Crashers because of midweek patterns. It should drop 36%, giving it a $13.7 million weekend, putting this at number one for the second consecutive weekend.

Red Eye will not get hit by the Cave, but it still drop 50% because of the Saturday performance. Penguins will still stay as stable as it's been, Wedding Crasher will experience a better hold than last weekend thanks to it's no direct competition. Skeleton Key will stablize a bit, and Valiant should experiance a similar decline as Home on the Range.

All in all, it will be another dull weekend. In other words, this weekend will be very Grimm indeed. If it can't past the $78.8 million of last weekends top ten movies, then this weekend will be more laughable then Ashlee Simpson's new movie. Looks like her movie won't the only thing that will be undiscovered.

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Fri Aug 26, 2005 4:56 am
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I like most of them...though hopefully BG and The Cave will open a bit higher.


Fri Aug 26, 2005 6:10 am
College Boy Z

Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
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I think you're a little too low on Undiscovered. The marketing has been really good. I've seen more commercials for Undiscovered than The Cave, actually. I think it should get atleast $2 million this weekend.


Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:25 pm
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We're remarkably close on all of the openers. I've got $13.3 for BG, $5.1 for Cave, and $1.5 for Undiscovered.


Fri Aug 26, 2005 4:38 pm
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Extraordinary
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Scott. I know the expansion collapsed, etc, so I guess there's no chance Broken Flowers would sneak up and break into the top ten?


Fri Aug 26, 2005 4:47 pm
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King Albert!
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MG Casey wrote:
We're remarkably close on all of the openers. I've got $13.3 for BG, $5.1 for Cave, and $1.5 for Undiscovered.


I know, when I saw your predictions for the openers, they were sooo close to mine (no, I did not copy). If these ring true, then both of us will get good scores. Let us start praying.

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Fri Aug 26, 2005 5:10 pm
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Orphan

Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm
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Red-Eye has really good word-of-mouth so I think it may avoid a 50% drop (still 40-45% is expected). Even if it does drop to around 8 million it still is a good moneymaker for Dreamworks with a budget of 25 million and a decent chance of reaching double that amount.


Fri Aug 26, 2005 5:15 pm
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