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| Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=86044 |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
$45M. Spectre had all the hype coming off of Skyfall and could only manage $70M. Daniel Craig was an awesome Bond, but this was the time to make a change. I just don't see it breaking too far through the covid wall. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Tue Sep 07, 2021 10:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
Bond movies depend on prolonged hype for either a new actor or something within the series the "last movie with this actor" angle just does not stick as much as I loved Craig in this role, it was the story around him that made this a great franchise and not him as an actor something that I felt Brosnan and Connery were able to do. As for predictions I still think it will cross $50m mark but not very high from there. $51m-$54m |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:52 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
Reviews are better than Spectre but worse than Skyfall. Feeling 70m for this. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Wed Sep 29, 2021 11:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
Keyser did mention that the presales have picked up for this but I still feel this is one of those movies that's presales heavy than say MCU specially in this environment where the seats/capacity are limited even with huge amount of screens. I'm still staying with my $51-$54m range for opening. I don't think this would have out-opened Spectre in normal times. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Wed Sep 29, 2021 11:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
The Us doesn't have capacity restrictions |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Wed Sep 29, 2021 11:50 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
You mean 100% theaters are open at 100% capacity? |
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| Author: | Excel [ Wed Sep 29, 2021 12:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
I read all the spoilers and think this is going to suck. But it will open big no doubt. $120m+ |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Wed Sep 29, 2021 12:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
Jack Sparrow wrote: You mean 100% theaters are open at 100% capacity? LA County and NY have vaccine passports and they are the most restrictive areas in the country. Unless there is a independent theater somewhere that chose to have their own capacity requirements, all the major chains are open 100% across the country |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Wed Sep 29, 2021 6:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
Excel wrote: I read all the spoilers and think this is going to suck. But it will open big no doubt. $120m+ The biggest bond opening thus far is way way below and it's not like the market is completely starving for movies right now. I do not think this will jump that much from Spectre specially with so many delays. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Wed Sep 29, 2021 6:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
zwackerm wrote: Jack Sparrow wrote: You mean 100% theaters are open at 100% capacity? LA County and NY have vaccine passports and they are the most restrictive areas in the country. Unless there is a independent theater somewhere that chose to have their own capacity requirements, all the major chains are open 100% across the country Got it 
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| Author: | Shack [ Sun Oct 03, 2021 2:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
Seems like this has some backlash potential |
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| Author: | O [ Sun Oct 03, 2021 1:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
I think there is room now for Bond to be seen as a disappointment since Venom did $90M OW. That was driven by a lot of young people. Not sure if some of Bond's older skewing audiences will rush OW. Would a $60M OW still be considered good expectation wise if its 1/3 less than Venom? |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Sun Oct 03, 2021 4:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
80/250m. Its craigs finale and so audience will be there. Previews PS are looking optimistic and this movie is anyway not that preview heavy. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sun Oct 03, 2021 5:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
Very much feeling under Spectre still, hope I'm wrong! Anything over 60m would be fine imo. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun Oct 03, 2021 9:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
Just because Venom broke out does not mean this will follow. Bond is a very established franchise and aside from Skyfall (due to 50th movie, and inspired marketing) the franchise is not known for big openings in States and the last actor movies in the past haven't shown big increase in OW. I feel with Venom breaking out this close it puts NTtD at a slight disadvantage because the focus has been shifted to this HUGE opening instead of Bond at this point. The HUGE openings of Bond in EU markets should have felt bigger but its not. I do feel that audience are still craving for movies so this will definitely do well but I fell $60m would be great for it. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Sun Oct 03, 2021 9:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
I think it can go over $70m by virtue of being Craig's last Bond. If it hadn't, I'd say $60m tops. |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Mon Oct 04, 2021 2:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
I think its tracking for at least 8m previews and Bond is not front loaded. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/04/no-time ... 1633370880 They are saying its tracking to 100m OW. Would be awesome but I am confident about 80m+ OW. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Mon Oct 04, 2021 2:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
Wtf? Surprised by tracking tbh. I don't think that's happening. |
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| Author: | Rolling Thunder [ Mon Oct 04, 2021 2:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
publicenemy#1 wrote: Wtf? Surprised by tracking tbh. I don't think that's happening. Agree, seems bullish. The movie is also nearly 3 hours, could be a pass for some. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Mon Oct 04, 2021 2:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
No one sees a runtime and doesn't buy a ticket for that reason, at least not opening weekend. |
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| Author: | Skyblade [ Mon Oct 04, 2021 3:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
Jack Sparrow wrote: Just because Venom broke out does not mean this will follow. Bond is a very established franchise and aside from Skyfall (due to 50th movie, and inspired marketing) the franchise is not known for big openings in States and the last actor movies in the past haven't shown big increase in OW. I feel with Venom breaking out this close it puts NTtD at a slight disadvantage because the focus has been shifted to this HUGE opening instead of Bond at this point. The HUGE openings of Bond in EU markets should have felt bigger but its not. I do feel that audience are still craving for movies so this will definitely do well but I fell $60m would be great for it. I don't know how much the "This is Craig's last go" will help, but historically doesn't it usually go that they play James Bond until they don't? Connery played Bond "for the last time" like, three or four times. Dalton's run was interrupted by legal issues, and by the time they got cleared up everyone agreed they should get a new one. Brosnon's last movie was a success but he asked for what the Broccolis felt was too much money, and they thought now was a good time to reboot and bring in a grittier, down to Earth take on the character. In short, with the possibility of Diamonds Are Forever, I don't think a definitive last dance has been part of any Bond movie's narrative until now. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Mon Oct 04, 2021 3:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
I hope this does break out, it does feel like there's more interest than in Venom. If it does less than Venom it means older demos still aren't interested in returning to theaters. |
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| Author: | O [ Mon Oct 04, 2021 5:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
Venom does $90M so Bond must do $100M to succeed now? That could be setting up for disappointment. For the studio not to go with a super low estimate and comment on their expectations for the article makes me think internally tracking may be much, much higher than we realized. It is overperforming advanced ticket sales expectations and, in many cases, is matching the presales for Venom. It also hits more quadrants than Venom. Could it realistically pull $125M+? Swore the studio would have commented and said something like we are tracking $50M for now if they were actually aiming for $70-80M. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Mon Oct 04, 2021 7:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
zwackerm wrote: No one sees a runtime and doesn't buy a ticket for that reason, at least not opening weekend. Agreed but then longer movies have lower showtimes which definitely impacts their OW. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Mon Oct 04, 2021 7:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Bond 25 is "No Time to Die" - Predictions |
Keyser Söze wrote: I think its tracking for at least 8m previews and Bond is not front loaded. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/04/no-time ... 1633370880 They are saying its tracking to 100m OW. Would be awesome but I am confident about 80m+ OW. 8m previews would definitely not lead to $100m OW. I feel the expectations are getting inflated because of Venom breakout and those big OS numbers. First Venom movie had surprisingly good legs which left room for growth and in the end that is Marvel movie. Bond is a different franchise so we should not expect same amount of walk-ups, thus the comparison is not accurate. |
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