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KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - OVERALL RESULTS
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Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 27
7 to 17 :funny:
Author:  Proud Ryu [ Mon Jan 28, 2019 11:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 27
Congrats i.hope for the perfect January (at least as of now).

Feels weird for me being the most negative player yet I've overestimated 4/5 so far. i.hope that's a good sign for me for the rest of the season haha.
Author:  BK [ Tue Jan 29, 2019 6:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 27
BOM doesn't have Bernadette moving but Captive State and Greyhound are both gone.

So it might be the first game with one fewer movie.

To be fair, no idea why Captive State is moving.

It'll bomb anyway and anywhere and the schedule is already really unbalanced.
Author:  Algren [ Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:41 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 27
BK wrote:
BOM doesn't have Bernadette moving but Captive State and Greyhound are both gone.

To be fair, no idea why Captive State is moving.


Captive State is still on the schedule. See: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/ ... s=5&p=.htm

It's just a limited release now, it seems. Though my guess is just that BOM has a glitch or someone unknowingly fucked it up, because everywhere else (even the film's official Facebook page) says it's coming out on March 15.

They have the same problem with Chaos Walking. "TBD" on BOM, but everywhere else says March 1.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 27
15 to 2. Thanks Upside and Kid Who Would Be King.
Author:  i.hope [ Tue Jan 29, 2019 6:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 27
I hope i.hope keeps it up for the rest of the contest. :D
Author:  i.hope [ Tue Jan 29, 2019 6:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 27
Algren wrote:

They have the same problem with Chaos Walking. "TBD" on BOM, but everywhere else says March 1.


Reshoots will start February. The CEO of Lionsgate also confirms the film will be delayed.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4224870-lions-gate-starz-power-makes-chaos-walking-worth-wait
Author:  Algren [ Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 27
That's a great find. Thanks.
Author:  MGKC [ Sun Feb 03, 2019 7:27 pm ]
Post subject: 
Weekly Ranking for Feb 3

No major changes - I revised The Kid Who Would Be King up by $1 million.

Image

Full chart with all movies:
Spoiler: show
Image


Total Gross Projections
A Dog's Way Home - $39 million
The Upside - $100 million
Glass - $105 million
The Kid Who Would Be King - $19 million
Serenity - $9.5 million

Current Top 5
1. Glass - $88.7 million
2. The Upside - $75.6 million
3. A Dog's Way Home - $35.9 million
4. The Kid Who Would Be King - $13.2 million
5. Serenity - $7.5 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#1: #1: Which will gross more in total - the family combination of Dumbo, How to Train Your Dragon 3, and The LEGO Movie 2, or the superhero combination of Captain Marvel, Glass, and Shazam?
  • The superhero combination of Captain Marvel, Glass, and Shazam (currently $88.7 million)

#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - Glass, Happy Death Day 2U, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, or The LEGO Movie 2?
  • Glass (currently -35.9%)

#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - Glass, Happy Death Day 2U, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, or The LEGO Movie 2?
  • Glass (currently -35.9%)

#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends?
  • A Dog's Way Home (currently $35.9 million)

#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend?
  • Replicas (-1,975 theaters)

#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)?
  • Dragon Ball Super: Broly (currently $29.1 million)
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Jan 21
Magic Mike wrote:
Not Serenity but I think Kid will with as many as it's in. At least around the same amount.


Looks like Serenity gets the crown with -2278 theaters :noway:

Kid who will be king wasn't far with -1682 theatres :pinch:
Author:  Price [ Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
This weekend may have killed this edition of the top 5 too. :lol:
Author:  MGKC [ Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
Price wrote:
This weekend may have killed this edition of the top 5 too. :lol:

Ha, indeed.

I think stuffp (Dumbo > Captain Marvel > Shazam > Us > Lego Movie 2) and Dil (Captain Marvel > Dumbo > Us > Shazam > Lego Movie 2) both have OK odds. They just have to pray How to Train Your Dragon 3 has a slump like Lego Movie 2.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Feb 09, 2019 12:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
With an under $30M weekend I think Lego could end up below Glass and The Upside.
Author:  Dil [ Sat Feb 09, 2019 1:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
Yeah Lego Movie 2 isn't going anywhere near $150M let alone $165M. A complete misfire and hell it might not even cross $100M which would strangely enough mean Jack Sparrow's prediction is going to be the closest. I'm not expecting How to Train Your Dragon 3 to over perform in any way, but it can't possibly do worse than this.
Author:  zwackerm [ Sat Feb 09, 2019 1:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
How does LEGO Movie miss 100m with Valentine's Day and President's day coming up?

I see 125m total.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
Dil wrote:
Yeah Lego Movie 2 isn't going anywhere near $150M let alone $165M. A complete misfire and hell it might not even cross $100M which would strangely enough mean Jack Sparrow's prediction is going to be the closest. I'm not expecting How to Train Your Dragon 3 to over perform in any way, but it can't possibly do worse than this.


All I need is Alita to break the doom-and-gloom of floppage city though I think it will also follow suit....ugh.

Though I agree with zwack with President's Day weekend coming over Lego 2 should build it way ( ;) ) to $100m unless it drops below $25m over the weekend (which it easily can given the previews-to-Friday frontloading)
Author:  Omni [ Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
Even assuming a 30M OW, the original's legs only puts it at 110M or so. The first Lego didn't see a weekend drop above 38% in its first month of release - do you really think Lego 2 can do the same with HTTYD3 on its 3rd weekend? And do you think it can keep 3000+ theaters on its 6th weekend of release? Come on!
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
I over-estimated the holiday effect for it and agree that HTTYD3 finale factor will destroy any legs Lego 2 builds by that time. Looks like $100m is out of question even with the holiday boost.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
I don't think anyone is getting top 5 now lol. I put Lego Movie 2 at #5 but it may not even pass Glass.
Author:  i.hope [ Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
Serenity lost 2,278 theaters. :whaa:

Lego 2 could miss $100m. Everything is low. Will the next three openers continue the trend? Likely. Happy Death Day 2 U will miss $40m. Alita and Isn't It Romantic will struggle to pass $50m.
Author:  Proud Ryu [ Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
I wonder if predicting 1 for everything would have won you this season. Will be interesting to find out.
Author:  i.hope [ Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
Proud Ryu wrote:
I wonder if predicting 1 for everything would have won you this season. Will be interesting to find out.


Yeah, $1 for everything would get you somewhere near the top if the rules were like The Price Is Right..
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
i.hope wrote:
Happy Death Day 2 U will miss $40m.


I really don't want it to but it might even miss 30 Million.
Author:  i.hope [ Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
Magic Mike wrote:
i.hope wrote:
Happy Death Day 2 U will miss $40m.


I really don't want it to but it might even miss 30 Million.


That's what I predicted in my original post too. Then I edited it to $40m because I think it still has a chance because of Universal's marketing.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2019 - Pts Update (Feb 3)
i.hope wrote:
Magic Mike wrote:
i.hope wrote:
Happy Death Day 2 U will miss $40m.


I really don't want it to but it might even miss 30 Million.


That's what I predicted in my original post too. Then I edited it to $40m because I think it still has a chance because of Universal's marketing.


I really feel like they haven't pushed it that hard.
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