Barbie's theater count is also a little "low." 325 isn't bad or anything, but being under 350 (or even 360/370 now) is odd. 52.6% of its theaters are accounted for above, versus the more regular ~45% or so that you see for many other films above.

Aeon is playing it at 10/11 fewer theaters than a normal wide release (83 vs 93/94), so that's some of it, so I wonder what other chains aren't playing it quite as wide to account for the other 30-50 theaters a bigger release usually has. I suppose it could be a few theaters per chain to get that total, but it seems a little higher where at least one other chain decided to skip on it at a lot of their locations

But... this isn't *that* big a deal. Just noting that it while it's playing wide, it's in about 15% fewer theaters than expected. (Kinda like if something in the US got ~3400 theaters instead of an expected ~4000 or so.) And with almost 53% of its theater count, and likely a higher percentage than that in seating coming from the Mimorin theaters, it's going to skew pretty heavily toward them and urban in general.

Taking Mimorin's admissions and multiplying that by ~1.8-2 (depending on the genre of film) can give you a fair estimate for nationwide admissions, but I'd probably use ~1.6/1.7 for Barbie.

Are there any weather concerns for the Obon holiday period? I know there was a typhoon a day ago, which is now affecting South Korea...

Unfortunately, yes. The last typhoon (hitting South Korea now) mostly just affected southwest Japan, so it didn't have much of any impact on the box-office. (Although it still caused some damage, especially on Okinawa.)

The one on its way now is still too far away to determine where it might be targeting, but it's definitely going to at least bring heavy rain and wind to Honshu (where the vast majority of the box-office business comes from). I think it's expected to begin impacting Japan on Monday and into Tuesday, and some rain/winds can be expected for another day or two after that.

So... worst-case it could deflate the box office over the Obon Festival period. But it has to be pretty bad to do so. These aren't rare occurrences or anything, so the majority don't hurt the box-office much. But we need to wait a couple more days to see where it's actually going to hit (and then go) since the model has it all over the place right now. Hopefully it moves farther north in the coming days.

And since it looks to potentially impact ~Monday-Wednesday, if it's rough, keep an eye on this weekend and next. If the weekdays are possibly going to be deflated, then the weekends are likely to be inflated as a result.

Yeah, you're right on second thought. Kingdom will win the weekend.

Except Kingdom might be closer to ¥450/500m in its third weekend based on this Thursday.

Looks like the Obon Festival boost began to take effect late into Thursday to me. It's pretty much even with Monday for the openers, and all the holdovers held very, very well. MI7 and HDYL flat with last week (MI7 may have increased), Kingdom 3 down under 15%, as was Mario and Indiana Jones. And lots of good holds (including increases) for films outside the top 10 too.

I need to go back and check past Obon Festivals, but I think it's been several years since the weekend frame itself landed in the middle of the holiday period and not before/after it, so we could see some increases across the board this weekend.

I'll probably begin posting the Obon Festival Daily Estimates beginning with today (Thursday). Thursday wasn't fully impacted by it, but it's clear it's the beginning of the boost. It'll last through ~August 18th, but will sort of be extended to August 20th due to the weekend.

Crunchyroll reports that Hayao Miyazaki's latest anime feature film The Boy and the Heron dropped to fourth place in its fourth weekend. The film's cumulative total domestic gross reached 5.48 billion yen (38.46 million USD) on 3.61 million admissions, 98% of the first four-week gross of Miyazaki's previous film in 2013, The Wind Rises. I also think the budget for 'How Do You Live' exceeded 40 or 50 million. I think it'll make a profit for Ghibli.

If it grossed 98% of The Wind Rises at the same time, does this still mean The Boy and the Heron has a chance of reaching 100 million? I'd love to see the best 4th weekends of all time Corpse when you update.

https://news.livedoor.com/lite/article_detail/24779932/

Confirmation that HDYL is the most expensive Japanese movie ever, passing Kaguya

OBON FESTIVAL 2023 - DAILY ESTIMATES (~08/10-18)

THURSDAY (08/10):
¥105 million ($730,000),-13%, ¥2.69 billion ($18.8 million) - Kingdom III: Flame of Destiny (Toho, Sony) Day 14
¥80 million ($556,000), 0, ¥677m ($4.7 million) - Elemental (Disney) Day 7
¥80 million ($556,000), -01%, ¥5.79 billion ($40.8 million) - How Do You Live? (Toho) Day 28
¥80 million ($556,000), +02%, ¥3.31 billion ($23.3 million) - Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 (Toho-Towa) Day 21
¥75 million ($521,000), 0, ¥727m ($5.1 million) - Crayon Shin-chan: Super-Powered Climactic Battle - Soaring Hand-Rolled Sushi (Toho) Day 7

% change vs last week.

Obon Festival doesn't have an exact, official start, but it's usually around the 10th/11th when we begin to see its impact on the box office. And, as seen above, Thursday's numbers indicate it's begun, but not in full effect yet which should be tomorrow.

Since this upcoming weekend falls between the start and end dates of the holiday period this year, I also suspect we may see some weekend increases.

It ranked third this past weekend, not fourth, so error there on Crunchyroll's part. You can find the weekend actuals on the last page (about half way down).

And they're using the 98% to compare YEN totals after four weeks, not USD. It's 33% behind in USD ($38m vs $57m). In Yen it's tracking pretty close, but in USD it's way down (nearly $20m) because the exchange rate remains at 20/25 year lows. So $100 million is very unlikely. In USD, it's probably aiming for around $70 million.

How Do You Live? (or The Boy and the Heron) didn't make the Biggest 4th Weekend Chart, having grossed ¥388,949,700 ($2.7 million) which keeps it pretty far off the list, but I can still share the chart for you.

Biggest Fourth (4th) Weekends (2000-):

¥1.773 billion ($17.1 million), -29%, ¥20.48 billion ($195.3 million) - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020)
__________
¥1.209 billion ($8.7 million), +48%, ¥11.45 billion ($85.2 million) - One Piece Film Red (2022)
¥1.190 billion ($8.8 million), +01%, ¥10.30 billion ($76.6 million) - Detective Conan: The Black Iron Submarine (2023)*
¥1.076 billion ($10.5 million), -05%, ¥8.53 billion ($83.0 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥1.027 billion ($9.2 million), +05%, ¥9.77 billion ($87.8 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
__________
¥972.2 million ($7.7 million), -19%, ¥8.43 billion ($67.0 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥953.2 million ($9.2 million), -06%, ¥8.45 billion ($81.4 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥922.9 million ($7.7 million), -21%, ¥8.13 billion ($67.5 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥879.2 million ($8.1 million), -12%, ¥7.22 billion ($66.6 million) - Aladdin (2019)
¥850.9 million ($8.3 million), -04%, ¥7.71 billion ($74.8 million) - Frozen (2014)
¥780.1 million ($7.1 million), -26%, ¥7.34 billion ($67.1 million) - Frozen II (2019)
¥765.7 million ($6.3 million), +07%, ¥7.20 billion ($60.4 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥755.2 million ($7.1 million), -03%, ¥7.21 billion ($67.1 million) - Ponyo (2008)
¥747.5 million ($5.6 million), -11%, ¥7.60 billion ($54.1 million) - Suzume (2022)
¥742.8 million ($5.4 million), -30%, ¥9.14 billion ($66.9 million) - The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023)*
¥733.5 million ($6.8 million), -27%, ¥7.11 billion ($65.9 million) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
__________
¥683.5 million ($5.5 million), -27%, ¥7.45 billion ($61.3 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥657.9 million ($8.1 million), -05%, ¥6.23 billion ($76.9 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥645.2 million ($6.1 million), -17%, ¥7.51 billion ($70.0 million) - Weathering With You (2019)
¥619.6 million ($5.3 million), -25%, ¥8.24 billion ($68.7 million) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
¥618.6 million ($6.4 million), -23%, ¥6.02 billion ($62.3 million) - Rookies (2009)
¥617.1 million ($7.1 million), +15%, ¥5.41 billion ($62.6 million) - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥604.4 million ($5.1 million), -22%, ¥7.55 billion ($63.1 million) - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥594.3 million ($4.5 million), -11%, ¥5.65 billion ($43.0 million) - Top Gun: Maverick (2022)
¥587.1 million ($5.3 million), -05%, ¥7.52 billion ($68.6 million) - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
¥575.3 million ($5.1 million), -35%, ¥7.94 billion ($70.4 million) - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥565.4 million ($5.3 million), -12%, ¥5.96 billion ($56.0 million) - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥556.0 million ($4.7 million), -34%, ¥5.91 billion ($49.2 million) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥551.7 million ($5.1 million), -09%, ¥6.22 billion ($57.1 million) - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
¥546.1 million ($4.6 million), -18%, ¥5.72 billion ($48.6 million) - Big Hero 6 (2014)
¥543.9 million ($6.6 million), -07%, ¥5.77 billion ($70.5 million) - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
¥542.8 million ($5.1 million), +07%, ¥5.18 billion ($48.7 million) - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥524.4 million ($4.8 million), -26%, ¥6.15 billion ($55.7 million) - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥521.6 million ($5.7 million), -52%, ¥8.38 billion ($91.6 million) - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥520.8 million ($4.7 million), -01%, ¥3.83 billion ($34.9 million) - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
¥519.9 million ($5.1 million), +09%, ¥5.81 billion ($56.8 million) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014)
¥518.5 million ($4.5 million), -01%, ¥6.37 billion ($55.4 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥510.3 million ($5.2 million), -07%, ¥5.60 billion ($57.5 million) - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥510.1 million ($5.6 million), -20%, ¥5.93 billion ($65.2 million) - Avatar (2009)
¥503.4 million ($3.8 million), -09%, ¥4.19 billion ($31.6 million) - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥501.2 million ($4.4 million), -27%, ¥6.26 billion ($55.6 million) - The Da Vinci Code (2006)

2-Day (Past-2022)
*3-Day (2023-Present)

Anecdotally I can see Elemental selling up the mostly late morning/early afternoon shows it has. Especially in Tokyo but that might be expected. So I expect to see large jumps in the mimorin count around then.

This is an absolutely insane day at the movies in Japan though.

That's Obon Festival. Haha. The next seven or eight days will be similar to this unless the typhoon puts a damper on a couple of days next week (Monday/Tuesday).

There's nothing "huge" this Obon, but there's a half dozen films doing good, respectable numbers at least. Although Barbie, unless it picks up later in the day (which is possible), is looking to disappoint. And if it does, it shouldn't be considered surprising. It had a lot to overcome. Still early, don't want to call it a disappointment yet, but the morning sales were weak and has it outside the top 5.

Yeah I was just astonished at the wide variety of movies getting good sales. I've only tracked Japanese box office once before, like with Zootopia. And that movie ended its run before Obon began.

I generally only get into the weeds with box office when it's a movie I really like.

Obon Festival is one of the three major holiday periods at the box office, the other two being New Year (first week of January) and Golden Week (end of April and beginning of May). They're nicely spaced out by roughly 4 months, so there's always one to look forward to before too long.

Of the three, Obon Festival is probably slightly the strongest since it occurs in the middle of summer vacation (which is mid-July through end of August) which already provides a boost for any film with a younger-skew. This is why so many notable films open in July and August, and it can be a very crowded 6 week period. It's the longest period students are out of school during the year, and then various workplaces are closed for Obon Festival, so it's the perfect time where everyone who wants to see a movie has the time to do so.

So I was a little off on barbie... no one saw anything though.

It makes sense for the holidays to get pretty crazy in jp though, given this is probably the leggiest market in the world, films can coexist much easier without eating each other

I think Elemental could very well have its best day yet in terms of tracked theaters. And if not, it could easily happen Saturday and/or Sunday too.

I think Elemental might be constrained seat-wise in some Tokyo area theaters, where it seems to sell out auditoriums in the showtimes around noon.

It's plain to see it sells the highest proportion of its seats out of the major releases.

I saw an interesting Japanese comment on YouTube that I translated with Google. It said it appreciated the Korean aspect of Elemental which it identified as spicy hot food and doing the big bow. I wonder if there is wider appreciation of the Korean aspect of the movie in the Japanese audience.

Going to see weekend increases across the board. (Minus a few films).

Kingdom III continues to do well, and ¥5 billion is looking good if it keeps this up all week. Remember, if it can get to ¥5 billion, it'll become only the third live-action domestic franchise to achieve this feat after Bayside Shakedown and Umizaru.

MI7 is showing great strength, and is very likely to outgross MI6 and probably reach ¥5 billion too. It can also outgross MI3 and MI5 if it gets to that point as they're not far above ¥5 billion. (Fun Fact: Its 22nd day estimate above is on par with its 22nd day in the US.)

How Do You Live? got some IMAX returned to it as mentioned in this thread, so it's possible it could be a little higher. Want to see where it stands after Obon Festival, but ¥10 billion continues to remain in play, even if it might have to crawl there.

Elemental increasing ~35% over its opening day is very good. It'll have earned over 3x it opening weekend after ten days which is strong. Too early to project where it could be heading, need to see how Obon plays out and what happens closer towards the end of the month (and beginning of September), but I think ¥3 billion is looking doable.

Crayon Shin-chan going the 3D/CGI route this year doesn't appear to be benefitting it any, but it's also not hurting it, so it's sort of a wash it appears. It'll probably gross over ¥2 billion and be among the higher grossing films in the franchise though. It just didn't get the novelty bump that Stand By Me, Doraemon did.

Barbie disappointing isn't surprising. The last Western comedy to find success was Ted, and that was a real shock and probably associated with it having a talking teddy bear. Western comedies simply don't translate well in Japan, so they typically disappoint/bomb (most don't even get very wide releases). And combined with not having a recognizable cast to help draw people in, there was a high chance Barbie wasn't going to do well in Japan. Although... it's definitely doing better than most Western comedies, that's just far below the performance it's put up in most other countries of course.

So Barbie will not even hit 1B yen in Japan? It is disappointing. I guess the humor did not connect at all like in Korea. China WOM was surprisingly good and so it had a good run over there(nothing outrageous).

Assuming it came in around ¥90 million today, so maybe ~¥250-300 million for the 3-day, that'll be plenty to get it to ¥1 billion ($7 million). If the opening weekend is in that range, it could end up closer to ¥1.5 billion ($11 million). This wouldn't be a bad result at all for a Western comedy, it'd be very good in fact. Almost none of them reach ¥1 billion. It's just going to look bad given what it's done in the US and other markets.

I don't know what to make of the presales at a glance for Elemental. Sure it's selling a lot but it doesn't seem like the knockout I wanted. Oh well it's still early morning in Japan.

I was excited because I noticed Elemental scored the really big screens like 500 and 600+ seats for Wednesday for some locations. But IDK.

Is the Saturday before Obon a traditional travel day? I thought I read somewhere though that most people have already got a move on in their travels by now.