Hey leave Rev alone. At least he wasn't as dumb as some people who were picking Horizon and Fall Guy over Beetlejuice.

I'm top the leaderboard! I need to own the role of the smug winner ... for now

Hmm, so Transformers One opens well. Is this the great Shack comeback?

T1 could get him to $850m. Wicked will get him to $1.15bn. Then he needs more than $150 million from Wild Robot, Here, and Terrifier 3. Should be easy, right? I feel Shack is this group's winner.

Red One looks crap, but it's the sort of crap that can make money. I think Rev has a shot here, too.

I reckon it can make over $100 million.

Looks like a potential 100m to me. The Rock out of nowhere interfering with the match.

I don't like the way the production looks. A 'Santa is kidnapped' action comedy doesn't look as ugly as what I saw in the trailer, but the Dwayne and Evans combo will probably lure people out as it does for the Fast movies.

I don't think anyone would be shocked if it opened to, say, $28-35 million and therefore finished with something like $102m. Very much a Journey type-performer.

If I'm going to reach $1.3bn (not that that's any sign of success) then it's going to be a slow crawl over it. Personally I do not think I will get there. I'm $12m away and have $1-2m left of Romulus, $200k left of Trap, and post-opening weekend of Never Let Go. I reckon I might even miss it by hundreds of thousands, lol

Algren $1,289,413,954
flip1 -$484,374,421
Shack -$509,392,890
Rev -$780,041,548

Weirdly, what Shack needs to catch me is Rev's current gross and what Rev needs to catch me is Shack's current gross.

I've disregarded Riggs and Flava - sorry guys - as I do not believe they have a realistic chance of catching me. Riggs needs $364,314,910 from Smile 2, Kraven the Hunter, and the rest of Beetlejuice Beetlejuice which probably has another $70m left in the tank. I do not see Smile 2 and Kraven combining for $300 million. So, he's out. Flava is even more unlikely, in my opinion. He needs $835,402,681 from Moana 2 and Joker Deux. They would need to gross at least $420 million each, lol. Not happening. Unless Horizon - Chapter 2 has a great replacement, Flava is currently out of contention.

Can Rev make $780m with Red One, Mufasa, and Sonic 3?
Possibly. Let's be optimistic and say that Red One can get $100m. I think it will fall short but let's say it does it. Can Mufasa and Sonic 3 get $340m each? Probably not but it's possible with Christmas. Mufasa is probably not going to be as big as The Lion King (2019) but if it decreases it can still reach the $340m needed. However, Sonic 3 probably won't get to $340m so Mufasa would need to pick up the slack. So it's looking more and more unlikely.
Probability: 40%

Can Shack make $509m with Terrifier 3, Here, Wild Robot, Wicked, and whatever's left of Transformers One?
Let's say Transformers One has another $50m, so he now needs $460m from the other four. I reckon Wicked can do $300m alone (not sure if I'm alone on that one) so that means he only needs $160m from Terrifier 3, Here and Wild Robot. Certainly doable, in my opinion. It obviously all hinges on how much Wicked goes over/under $300 million.
Probability: 80%

Can flip1 make $484m with Venom: The Last Dance, Gladiator 2, and War of the Rohirrim?
I believe the animated Lord of the Rings movie will flop this December. Let's say $30m for that. So it boils down to $450 million from Venom 3 and Gladiator 2. The thing is, Gladiator 2 would need to absolutely max out its potential, which I believe is $200m or so. The same goes for Venom as well. It does look like a bigger movie, and the series is consistent. Surely it's above $213m, but by how much. flip1's endgame hinges on Gladiator 2, in my opinion. Will it be a Maverick or a Blade Runner 2049?
Probability: 50%

Flip making 500m with that group seems possible to me.

Are we allowed to replace Horizon yet? I'd like Nosferatu but could be convinced by an argument to an awards contender.

Also I'm gonna predict that all of those scenarios happen and you end up in last place.

The Chalamet Bob Dylan movie A Complete Unknown is coming out in 25 and an option.

This prediction is in line with your history of bad predictions

Increasing Shack's probability to 90%.

It will be good for the game if Shack does win it because he will have done it without a $550m+ film, which will yet again show how the order picking isn't as important as the quality of the picks.

Come on, zwack. Let him replace it. He doesn't stand a chance in hell of getting into the top three let alone winning, so might as well let him replace it (even if Horizon 2 ends up being released this year).

Normally he doesn't need the help, but stuffp can thank me for talking him out of Fly Me to the Moon in favor of the Wild Robot!

He reserved a higher value pick to replace with Fly Me to the Moon. lol

Shack is at $827m as of Sunday.

I reckon Wild Robot can give him another $100m, so that's $927m or so.

The rest of Transformers One will bump that up to $950m.

Terrifier 3 and Here will bump him to $1 billion.

So, we're down to Wicked. It needs to do more than $295 million to beat me.

Personally I reckon it will do $350 million. So he beats me and most likely wins it. And I may have even lowballed some of those predictions. Like Wild Robot. It could do $150 million. Here and Terrifier 3 could do more than a combined $50 million. On the flipside, Wicked could just so $220 million. But it feels like it's shaping up to be the go-to magical movie of the season. And girls movies are always underpredicted.

But what do the rest of you think Wicked can do?

$100M / $350M sounds about right for Wicked. Terrifier is a wild card. Could it hit the level of the Saw sequels? Like $25M opening / $60M total sounds kinda reasonable and how crazy is that?

That would be such an insane uptick from the second movie. I sorta feel the series crest was 2. I just don't see this character being as widespread-ably popular as Jigsaw. Art is too one note, and so is Leone. It's just gore, and it goes on forever. It's niche. So $10 million is probably its level. Am I saying it can't do, say, $17 million? No. But that's a far cry from $65 million.

Also, what movie series has ever gone mainstream with the third installment? It just doesn't happen.

If making the same as Wonka would lead to me losing that's pretty dangerous. Also I like Wicked's release date less than Wonka's.

Wicked feels closer to a Frozen than a Wonka to me. And they've cleverly disguised it as a standalone movie instead of having the lingering stench of being a Part One.

My draft cursed Joker. Only logical explanation. Apologies to all involved.

haha, yes. I knew there had to be a logical explanation!

Joker tanking takes me out of contention