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KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=82485		 Page 8 of 10
Author:  Algren [ Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
Rev, is it not the taking part that counts? You could still get a top 3 position..
Author:  Riggs [ Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
By far my worst game ever.
Author:  MGKC [ Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:23 am ]
Post subject: 
These impacts have now been included in the weekly rankings (seen further below):
MGKC wrote:
--Dunkirk passes Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales for the Summer #5 position.
FLAVA'D and EXDEE13 LOSE 1 PT.

-Annabelle: Creation gets within 16.3% of Annabelle''s total gross ( it needs to pass $70.2 million), taking question #5 (closest-grossing sequel) from Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2.
ALGREN LOSES 2 PTS

-The Hitman's Bodyguard out-grosses 47 Meters Down ($43.4 million) to take question #10 (highest grossing movie we didn't predict), but nothing else out-grosses The Hitman's Bodyguard. (99% CHANCE)
FLAVA'D and ALGREN GAIN 2 PTS.

-Dunkirk passes $182.5 million. (95% CHANCE)
FLAVA'D and JONATHON LOSE 3 PTS. MADGEZ GAINS 3 PTS.


Weekly Ranking for September 4

Image

Total Gross Projections
Alien: Covenant - $74.262 million
Annabelle: Creation - $100 million
Atomic Blonde - $52 million
Baby Driver - $110 million
Baywatch - $58.06 million
The Beguiled - $10.576 million
Captain Underpants - $73.519 million
Cars 3 - $155 million
The Dark Tower - $49 million
Despicable Me 3 - $263 million
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul - $20.738 million
Dunkirk - $190 million
The Emoji Movie - $84.5 million
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - $390.5 million
The House - $26.584 million
An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power - $3.7 million
King Arthur: Legend of the Sword - $39.175 million
The Mummy - $80.101 million
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales - $173 million
Snatched - $45.852 million
Spider-Man: Homecoming - $330 million
Transformers: The Last Knight - $130.168 million
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets - $39.9 million
War for the Planet of the Apes - $147.5 million
Wonder Woman - $415 million

Current Top 5
1. Wonder Woman - $408.9.0 million
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - $389.6 million
3. Spider-Man: Homecoming - $324.1 million
4. Despicable Me 3 - $257.9 million
5. Dunkirk - $178.8 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#1: Which will gross more in total - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 or the double the total gross of Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales? Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
#2: Which will gross more in total - the combination of War of the Planet of the Apes and Wonder Woman or the combination of Spider-Man: Homecoming and Transformers: The Last Knight? War of the Planet of the Apes and Wonder Woman
#3: Which 2 of the following films will gross closest to each other in total in dollars - Alien: Covenant, Baywatch, Dunkirk, or The Mummy? Alien: Covenant and The Mummy
#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - Annabelle: Creation, Cars 3, Despicable Me 3, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, An Inconvenient Sequel, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, Transformers: The Last Knight, or War for the Planet of the Apes? An Inconvenient Sequel
#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - Annabelle: Creation, Cars 3, Despicable Me 3, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, An Inconvenient Sequel, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, Transformers: The Last Knight, or War for the Planet of the Apes? Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (currently +16.8%)
#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends? Girls Trip (currently $111.6 million)
#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend? Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (-1,758 theaters)
#8: How many films will gross over $100 million? Eleven (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, Wonder Woman, Cars 3, Transformers: The Last Knight, Despicable Me 3, Spider-Man: Homecoming, War for the Planet of the Apes, Dunkirk, Baby Driver, Girls Trip)
#9: How many films will gross over $200 million? Four (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Wonder Woman, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Despicable Me 3)
#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)? The Hitman's Bodyguard
Author:  Algren [ Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
Fuuuuuuuuuuuuck. My heart is in my mouth.
Author:  MGKC [ Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:30 am ]
Post subject: 
Updated impacts on what could change up the current top 5 rankings.

Things that could happen:

-The Emoji Movie passes $85 million. (75% CHANCE)
PRICE LOSES 3 PTS.

-Annabelle Creation grosses roughly more than $99 million, which would put it at +17% over Annabelle, making question #5 (closest grossing sequel) swing back to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. (35% CHANCE)
ALGREN GAINS 1 PT.

-1 additional movie passes $100 million (Annabelle: Creation), making question #8's answer be 12 movies. (25% CHANCE)
PRICE LOSES 2 PTS. MADGEZ and EXDEE13 GAIN 2 PTS


Less likely things that could happen:

-Dunkirk passes $200 million, making question #9's answer be 5 movies. (15% CHANCE)
MADGEZ LOSES 2 PTS. PRICE, FLAVA'D, ALGREN, and JONATHON GAIN 2 PTS.

-Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 fails to pass $390 million. (10% CHANCE)
PRICE GAINS 3 PTS.

-Cars 3 passes $156 million. (5% CHANCE)
PRICE LOSES 2 PTS.

-Spider-Man: Homecoming passes $340 million. It needs a 4.1 multiplier from this weekend. (3% CHANCE)
ALGREN GAINS 2 PTS.

-Atomic Blonde passes $55 million. (1% CHANCE)
PRICE GAINS 3 PTS.

Feel free to make of copy of my Google Doc and play around with the numbers yourselves to see if you can find any other possible impacts:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing[/quote]



The #1 position is not set in stone. My money is on MadGez given that Annabelle: Creation passing $100 million might seal it for him, but Algren still has an outside shot if Dunkirk just keeps going and going.

Basically, Annabelle: Creation and Dunkirk are gonna drag this game out for quite some time. :funny:
Author:  Algren [ Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
Yeah, MadGez has this.
Author:  Price [ Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
What happens if Guardians 2 stops at 389,999,999 or less? :sweat:
Author:  MGKC [ Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:18 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
Price wrote:
What happens if Guardians 2 stops at 389.9 or less? :sweat:

You know - I didn't even catch that one - it's not entirely unlikely that this could happen. Nice call!
Author:  Algren [ Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
Isn't it quite likely? It's already been given its discount theater boost and it still has $340k to go.
Author:  MadGez [ Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
Wow. What a battle.

This is going to be an epic showdown.
Author:  MGKC [ Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
Algren wrote:
Isn't it quite likely? It's already been given its discount theater boost and it still has $340k to go.

Tough to say - it just needs a 3.0 multiplier from this weekend. Avengers: Age of Ultron was able to make that multiplier after Labor Day weekend, but Captain America: Civil War was not.
Author:  Algren [ Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
So I have to root for Dunkirk and Spider-Man: Homecoming. I don't think that'll be a problem!
Author:  Algren [ Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:35 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
The way I see it: Price definitely loses 3pts due to Emoji reaching $85m. I don't see a way it misses that mark. So he goes down to 35pts. At that point it is:

1. MadGez - 37pts
2. Algren - 35pts
3. Price - 35pts

(I am not sure how same scores are handled so I put myself above Price since he dropped pts/rank)

With Halloween to come, Annabelle: Creation has to cross the $99m mark, which means I get an extra pt.

1. MadGez - 37pts
2. Algren - 36pts
3. Price - 35pts

The rest, such as Dunkirk needing to pass $200m for MadGez to lose pts and for me to gain pts ... is very unlikely to happen. But I definitely see Guardians 2 missing $390m (at least it has a much greater than 10% chance), so if that were to happen:

1. Price - 38pts
2. MadGez - 37pts
3. Algren - 36pts

Cars 3 failing to hit $156m and Homecoming hitting $340m are UNLIKELY, so no changes there. Damn it. ;)

But one additional movie will pass $100m (Annabelle: Creation, meaning that Price will lost 2pts and MadGez will gain 2pts:


1. MadGez - 39pts
2. Algren - 36pts
3. Price - 36pts

My projection: MadGez wins.

There is just too much in his favour. And again, I am not sure who goes above who on tie-break rankings. I put myself above Price again, just because.
Author:  Price [ Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
Algren, if Guardians fails to reach $390m, MadGez also loses three points. That would mean a three way tie at 36 points. MGKC already said you would be above me in that case, but I don't know about you and MadGez or him and I.
:ninja: :ninja: :ninja:
Author:  Algren [ Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
Oh really? Guess I missed it. I just went by this post of his:

MGKC wrote:
-Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 fails to pass $390 million. (10% CHANCE)
PRICE GAINS 3 PTS.


But yeah, the result would be 36pts for the three of us. :funny: Good luck working that one out MGKC.
Author:  Price [ Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
MadGez predicted 405, I predicted 375. With 389,999,999 I'm closer, with 390,000,001 he is. The fun thing would be if it stopped exactly at 390,000,000.

Then MGKC would have to decide if he gives three points to both of us, or divide it by two and give just 1.5 points, or no points at all. :funny:

Anyway, this is really a nailbiter, so I'm hoping for IT to annihilate anything else, especially Annabelle, but I think it's obvious it will pass $100m now.

And I can't wait to use the poop emoji when that crosses $85m. :disgust:
Author:  Algren [ Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
Price wrote:
MadGez predicted 405, I predicted 375. With 389,999,999 I'm closer, with 390,000,001 he is. The fun thing would be if it stopped exactly at 390,000,000.


I didn't think there were individual contests per player on who is closest. I thought it only mattered if your prediction was in the top 25%.
Author:  Price [ Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
Algren wrote:
Price wrote:
MadGez predicted 405, I predicted 375. With 389,999,999 I'm closer, with 390,000,001 he is. The fun thing would be if it stopped exactly at 390,000,000.


I didn't think there were individual contests per player on who is closest. I thought it only mattered if your prediction was in the top 25%.


You are right, but that single $ makes the difference of who is in the top 25%

The rules say: For each movie, the top 25% of players who predicted most accurately will get 3 points a piece.

In this case, the top 25% are the seven players (from 29) closer to the final amount. And the seventh player in this case will either be MadGez or me.

The thing with the 1.5 or no points before was sort of a joke. If it stopped exactly at 390, we both would get 3 points, but just 1 cent will incline the balance to either side.

Let's just wait and see what this weekend brings us, as it will be interesting to see the charts following the IT aftermath.
Author:  Algren [ Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
Oh, you really did the math. Awesome. So it really is finely balanced. Wow. I'm not really in it yet, though.
Author:  Algren [ Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
And yeah, it won't stop on exactly $390,000,000. It'll be either side. We know it. Just which side is unclear yet (though I think I know).
Author:  Price [ Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
This is how I imagine the three of us right now:

Image


and this is how it's going to end:
Image
Author:  Algren [ Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
MGKC is Michael Jordan. :funny:
Author:  MGKC [ Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
Algren wrote:
There is just too much in his favour. And again, I am not sure who goes above who on tie-break rankings. I put myself above Price again, just because.

Ties are decided by whoever has the lowest total "millions off" in their total predictions. (The sum of each movie's difference between your prediction and its actual.)

Right now for the current top 5, roughly it's:
1. Algren - $811 million off
2. Price - $858 million off
3. MadGez - $884 million off
4. Rev - $936 million off
5. Flava'd - $945 million off

That's column DO in my spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
Author:  Algren [ Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
Oh, interesting. So I am rooting for a tie then. I mean, that seems to be my only way on winning this thing! A lot has to happen before then, though. Fingers crossed.

Whatever happens, it will be the tightest race on KJ ever (in my active time here).
Author:  Algren [ Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: KJ's Summer 2017 Box Office Contest
It may help me here. If kids are buying tickets for Spider-Man: Homecoming and/or Dunkirk, they may reach the milestones needed for me to claim a few extra points.
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