This depends on how much boost it will get during the holiday weeks and from the news/media report (Spirited Away overtaken)

I'm predicting it'll overtake Spirited Away on Saturday (Dec. 19th), its 65th-day in release. In fact, it appears incredibly likely (like 95%+ likelihood) that it'll occur on next Saturday

And if you want to include Spirited Away's re-release, then it'll be about a week later (around Christmas). Just note that when it surpasses ¥30.8 billion, it'll be reported as the new #1

Very noice
Saturday it is eh, I'll make alarms and sh*ts for that day

Weekend Estimates (12/12-13):
01 (01) ¥935,000,000 ($9.0 million), +43%, ¥30,270,575,300 ($288.5 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK9
02 (---) ¥590,000,000 ($5.7 million), 0, ¥750,000,000 ($7.2 million), New Interpretation Records of the Three Kingdoms (Toho) NEW
03 (03) ¥186,000,000 ($1.8 million), -24%, ¥1,780,000,000 ($17.1 million), Stand By Me, Doraemon 2 (Toho) WK4
04 (02) ¥156,000,000 ($1.5 million), -61%, ¥1,050,000,000 ($10.0 million), Takizawa Kabuki Zero 2020: The Movie (Shochiku) WK2
05 (---) ¥x80,000,000 ($770,000), 0, ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), Tengaramon (Giggly Box) NEW
06 (04) ¥x67,000,000 ($645,000), -61%, ¥310,000,000 ($3.0 million), Fate/Grand Order - Divine Realm of the Round Table: Camelot 1 (Aniplex) WK2
07 (05) ¥x42,000,000 ($405,000), -53%, ¥270,000,000 ($2.6 million), Silent Tokyo (Toei) WK2
08 (---) ¥x35,000,000 ($335,000), 0, ¥x55,000,000 ($0.5 million), Evangelion 2.0: You Can (Not) Advance [4DX re-release] (Toho/Toei/Khara) NEW
09 (06) ¥x33,000,000 ($315,000), -47%, ¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), The Witches (Warner Bros.) WK2
10 (09) ¥x19,000,000 ($180,000), -19%, ¥395,000,000 ($3.8 million), The Legend of Hei (Aniplex/Team Joy) WK6

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train continues to be covered in the thread discussions and charts, so check the many pages/posts in recent days for information on it.

New Interpretation Records of the Three Kingdoms scores the third biggest debut of the 2020 calendar year, and the second highest for a live-action film (behind the same director's From Today, It's My Turn! back in July). Look for a total around ¥4-5 billion ($40-50 million).

Stand By Me, Doraemon 2 is still holding well, and is doing what it needs to do in order to benefit enough from the upcoming holiday season to get above the ¥3 billion ($30 million) milestone I believe.

Takizawa Kabuki Zero 2020: The Movie drop is solely based on its decline in admissions, but given the special screenings greatly inflating its average ticket price, it'll probably come in noticeably lower in revenue with actuals tomorrow.

Another great weekend. Based on the estimates above, the Top 10 is up 25% versus the same weekend last year.

It’s crazy how I know on some level that ¥4-5B is a good result for a movie, but after 9 weeks of talking about DS it just feels like nothing to me on a gut level.

New Interpretation Records of the Three Kingdoms had a great weekend, I even think if DS hadn't had the weekend giveaways, it would have overtaken Demon Slayer this weekend.

@Corpse, maybe with current numbers this weekend will be ¥950mn as you predicted, who knows

Do you really think Demon Slayer could hit ¥40Bn ? Me, without being pessimistic or anything, I think it can reach ¥36Bn-¥37Bn, and maximum if it continues to perform exceptionally well maybe ¥38Bn-¥39Bn, but the ¥40Bn seems very difficult to reach

40 would take better holiday+late legs than I think can be reasonably expected, thus the wink. But don’t want to totally rule it out until we’ve actually seen the holidays. My more realistic expectation right now is more 36.5-38.5ish

Sorry for not being fluent in English but I'm doing my best and I've never had any comments on this, maybe that means that despite that people manage to understand me and that's the main thing.

I just noticed some things:

- After 9 weeks, Demon Slayer is still ¥10Bn above Spirited Away

- Demon Slayer is less than 1 million admissions from overtaking Spirited Away

Demon Slayer will surely surpass Spirited Away on Saturday (Sunday at worst), then it will surely exceed 23 million admissions next Sunday, and then Demon Slayer should surpass $300M and 23.5 million admissions (record of admissions of Spirited Away) by Friday, December 25 (just before the holidays). Finally DS should exceed ¥31.66Bn and 24.28 million admissions (SA record with re-release) on Saturday December 26 or Sunday December 27 (1st holiday weekend). The 25 million admissions are attainable by December 31 or January 1 and the ¥35Bn are attainable during the week of 01/08-14

Now I think $ 340M (¥35Bn-¥36Bn) and 26-27 million admissions seems to be on a really good track (almost even locked), just see how much more Demon Slayer can add compared to that, can -being at maximum Demon Slayer can reach ¥36.5Bn-¥38.5Bn ($350M-$365M) and 27M-28.5M admissions as @WandaLegion said but that still remains to be seen.

After all, these are only my expectations and I don't know what experts like @Corpse or Charlie Jat think about them, but in any case, Demon Slayer will have really broken all the records in Japan and even the records that we could think unbeatable, and it's just amazing how much of a phenomenon this movie is in Japan.

Frankly, I've already run out of words to describe the run of this movie.
Is just amazing.

In another note, The Three Kingdoms had a great sunday, almost 85/90% of Demon Slayer's.
If it's second weekend drop is around 20/25%, similar to past blockbusters like Kingdom, Code Blue or this years' From Today, It's My Turn, the next weekend will be a close race.
It's nice to have once again competition in a healty market, and I hope more movies perform great in the following holidays!

It's true that next week will be very tight and right now I would even say The Three Kingdoms has a little more chance of dominating next weekend than Demon Slayer. But Demon slayer still stayed 9 weeks as number 1.

No worries, we all have room to grow. So keep doing your best xD

Weekend actual: ¥30.289.307.700 ( 22.539.385 admits )
From 26/12, 4DX and MX4D version will be released.
300k giveaway (special key) will be given to people who join in the 4DX/ MX4D version showings.

But I don't know if this giveaway is only an extra gifts for people who join in 4DX and MX4D version? And there will be other giveaway?

I thought they'd pull the 4DX expansion trigger after New Year given the strength of it still. The fact that it's getting the expansion at the beginning of the holiday frame is pretty crazy.

The 4DX giveaway event is likely separate from the 4th and final giveaway previous scheduled for December 26th in order to promote/support the 4DX format. Needless to say, that weekend is going to be pretty damn big with the 4DX expansion and double events. Not that it needs any of these boosts whatsoever as it'll already be the #1 all-time film before they begin. They're just running up the numbers now to get a total that will truly not fall in our lifetimes.

Your projections don't seem unreasonable, but it'll probably hit all these marks even faster now with the news of the 4DX expansion on December 26th, in addition to a newly announced giveaway event, making it TWO that weekend.

Although I don't know if a maximum can really be discussed right now as it has a ton left in the tank. Don't be surprised if it finds itself over ¥40 billion (up to/over ~$400 million) eventually.

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥735,000,000 ($7.0 million) / 545,000
10/20 - Tues.: ¥545,000,000 ($5.1 million) / 395,000
10/21 - Wed.: ¥635,000,000 ($6.0 million) / 505,000
10/22 - Thur.: ¥465,000,000 ($4.5 million) / 340,000
10/23 - Fri.: ¥700,000,000 ($6.7 million) / 510,000
10/24 - Sat.: ¥1,500,944,600 ($14.3 million) / 1,115,182
10/25 - Sun.: ¥1,540,504,150 ($14.7 million) / 1,157,654
10/26 - Mon.: ¥620,000,000 ($5.9 million) / 460,000
10/27 - Tues.: ¥410,000,000 ($3.9 million) / 300,000
10/28 - Wed.: ¥575,000,000 ($5.5 million) / 430,000
10/29 - Thur.: ¥390,000,000 ($3.7 million) / 285,000
10/30 - Fri.: ¥555,000,000 ($5.3 million) / 405,000
10/31 - Sat.: ¥1,212,312,550 ($11.6 million) / 887,893
11/01 - Sun.: ¥1,286,354,600 ($12.3 million) / 1,140,390 *Discount Day*
11/02 - Mon: ¥820,000,000 ($7.8 million) / 605,000 *Holiday Boosted*
11/03 - Tues.: ¥1,185,000,000 ($11.3 million) / 900,000 *Holiday*
11/04 - Wed.: ¥350,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 260,000
11/05 - Thur.: ¥230,000,000 ($2.2 million) / 170,000
11/06 - Fri.: ¥325,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 240,000
11/07 - Sat.: ¥863,827,750 ($8.3 million) / 628,614
11/08 - Sun.: ¥909,098,150 ($8.8 million) / 667,179
11/09 - Mon.: ¥315,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 230,000
11/10 - Tues.: ¥220,000,000 ($2.1 million) / 160,000
11/11 - Wed.: ¥295,000,000 ($2.8 million) / 230,000
11/12 - Thur.: ¥200,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 145,000
11/13 - Fri.: ¥310,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 225,000
11/14 - Sat.: ¥795,343,500 ($7.6 million) / 611,418
11/15 - Sun.: ¥726,313,550 ($6.9 million) / 535,986
11/16 - Mon.: ¥265,000,000 ($2.5 million) / 195,000
11/17 - Tues.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000
11/18 - Wed.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 185,000
11/19 - Thur.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000
11/20 - Fri.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 170,000
11/21 - Sat.: ¥439,606,550 ($4.2 million) / 314,726
11/22 - Sun.: ¥592,738,550 ($5.7 million) / 433,315
11/23 - Mon.: ¥460,110,250 ($4.4 million) / 357,741 *Holiday*
11/24 - Tues.: ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) / 90,000
11/25 - Wed.: ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million) / 120,000
11/26 - Thur.: ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million) / 85,000
11/27 - Fri.: ¥195,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 130,000
11/28 - Sat.: ¥556,443,300 ($5.3 million) / 392,017
11/29 - Sun: ¥448,060,450 ($4.3 million) / 320,031
11/30 - Mon.: ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million) / 105,000
12/01 - Tues.: ¥170,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 145,000 *Discount Day*
12/02 - Wed.: ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) /100,000
12/03 - Thur.: ¥x95,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x70,000
12/04 - Fri.: ¥145,000,000 ($1.4 million) / 105,000
12/05 - Sat.: ¥319,013,550 ($3.1 million) / 225,976
12/06 - Sun.: ¥336,505,700 ($3.2 million) / 239,874
12/07 - Mon.: ¥100,000,000 ($1.0 million) / x75,000
12/08 - Tues.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x55,000
12/09 - Wed.: ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x90,000
12/10 - Thur.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x60,000
12/11 - Fri.: ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x80,000
12/12 - Sat.: ¥588,408,200 ($5.7 million) / 407,286
12/13 - Sun.: ¥351,003,000 ($3.4 million) / 248,024

59-Day Cumulative Total: ¥30,289,307,700 ($288.9 million) / 22,539,385

Note: Mon.-Fri. are estimates (excluding Holiday Mondays), therefore adding up each day won't equal the actual total.

Monday-Friday (12/07-11) have been readjusted (all up) to account for the new cumulative total. I've gotten the weekend numbers very close for most of this film's run, but I keep underestimating the weekdays a bit, even after upping my estimates more and more each week to avoid this. It's not a lot, really, but I'll just keep estimating higher and higher until it matches up better! LOL.

I am still looking at 45b total

It's up over 20% this monday, which is interesting. Could break it on friday even if the rest of the weekdays perform similarly.

The weekdays have been really strong over the last couple of weeks and pretty much stable, the only difference being Monday after giveaway weekends which are stronger than usual probably because of some spillover effect OR maybe a few of the giveaway items distributed on Monday as well.

Monday is likely benefitting from the giveaway spillover (~95,000 leftover from the weekend).

Corpse, want to confirm this again. When Demon Slayer opened back in mid Oct, on the opening weekend, all the theaters were allowed to run with 100% capacity, right?
Then, starting from next week, they had to come back to 50% on weekdays and 100% on weekend except Aoen chain still run 50% capacity on weekend also? And this situation had been kept until December?

Technically, all theaters were allowed to operate at 100% capacity back in mid-September when the Government fully lifted capacity restrictions on smaller venues (5,000 people or less) which included movie theaters. All the smaller chains pretty much immediately went back to 100%, but Toho Cinemas and Aeon Cinemas (the two largest chains) decided to remain at 50% capacity. Given their size and slightly different regulations in some prefectures, they couldn't just switch back to 100% with a week's notice.

Then when Demon Slayer opened, Toho Cinemas resumed 100% capacity again, but for weekends only. So the nationwide status was:

All theaters were at 100% capacity on the weekends except for Aeon Cinemas.
All theaters were at 100% capacity on the weekdays except for Aeon Cinemas and Toho Cinemas.

Then the following week, however, Toho opened their busiest locations (11 or 12) back up to 100% capacity on the busiest weekdays (Monday, Wednesday, and Friday) due to the demand.

This is how it was for late-October and all of November. Then on December 1st, Toho Cinemas went back to 100% capacity at all of their locations on all weekdays. Aeon Cinemas is the only chain that continues to operate at 50% capacity every day of the week.

Below is the closing and reopening timeline for more detailed numbers:

Japan Cinemas Closing & Reopening Timeline:

Closing Phase:
Mar. 28th: Urban Prefectures Declare State Of Emergency; Theaters Closed In 8/47 Prefectures; Nationwide Capacity Down To ~20-25%.
Apr. 18th: Government Declares State Of Emergency; All Theaters Closed; Nationwide Capacity Down To 0%.

Reopening Phase:
May 16th: Theaters Reopen In 39/47 Prefectures At 50% Occupancy; Nationwide Capacity Up To ~20-25%.
June 20th: All Theaters Reopen; 8/47 Prefectures At 25% Occupancy; Nationwide Capacity Up To ~30-35%.
July 18th: Theaters In 8/47 Prefectures Expand To 50% Occupancy; Nationwide Capacity Up To 50%.
Sept. 19th: Government Fully Lifts Capacity Restrictions; Most Chains Expand To 100% Occupancy; Nationwide Capacity Up To ~60-65%.
Oct. 3rd: 11/69 Toho Cinemas Resume 100% Occupancy On Weekends (50% Still On Weekdays); Nationwide Capacity Up To ~65-70%.
Oct. 16th: All Toho Cinemas Resume 100% Occupancy On Weekends (50% Still On Weekdays); Nationwide Capacity Up To ~75-80%.
Dec. 1st: All Theaters, Except For Aeon Cinemas, Resume 100% Occupancy On Weekdays; Nationwide Capacity Up To ~85-90%.

Note: The selected dates aren't always when the announcements or laws/regulations began or ended, but rather the date when they had an impact on the box-office.