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Japan Box-Office: On Hiatus
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=55322		 Page 560 of 952
Author:  Corpse [ Sat Oct 24, 2020 5:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Danhjpn wrote:
Wonder if the presale for Sunday also looks good? :/
And the new trailer will come at 9pm night Japan time? It is quite late. I thought it would be at noon.



:lol:

The majority of theaters nationwide are sold out or over 80% full from open until 9PM in reservations alone right now. Sunday > Saturday.
Author:  Danhjpn [ Sat Oct 24, 2020 5:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Wow. Didnt expect Sunday> Saturday really....
Last week it turned out that Saturday > Sunday
Author:  Corpse [ Sat Oct 24, 2020 5:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Sunday's are usually bigger than Saturday's, with the exception of openers most of the time.
Author:  Corpse [ Sat Oct 24, 2020 5:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Check these six locations. These are taken about an hour and a half before the showtimes begin.

X = Sold Out, △ = 80% Full, O = 50% Full.

Spoiler: show
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Spoiler: show
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Spoiler: show
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Spoiler: show
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Spoiler: show
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Spoiler: show
Image


Anyone choosing to walk-up is going to be out of luck at MANY locations today, just like yesterday and last weekend.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sat Oct 24, 2020 6:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Woo! 80% that means it has a chance to top last Sunday :excited:
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sat Oct 24, 2020 6:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Corpse wrote:
Sunday's are usually bigger than Saturday's, with the exception of openers most of the time.


This is what I was banking on earlier when I mentioned that it's second Sunday might top last Sunday. Based on your analysis the disadvantage on 2nd Saturday started for late night shows which made it down from 3-4% to 13% in the end. But first Sunday was already off by 3-4% throughout from first Saturday. Now that we are into second week the rush factor might be lower (its still just insane) and being the bigger movie going day might help it offset that difference.
Author:  Corpse [ Sat Oct 24, 2020 6:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
80% at the majority. :mer:

I'm not expecting a Sunday-to-Sunday increase, but I do think today will beat yesterday and probably dip under 10% versus last Sunday. In order to beat last Sunday, it needs a sell-rate of 83%. Not impossible, but that's going to be an extreme challenge and I wouldn't put expectations there.

A 10% drop versus last Sunday will be good enough. :|
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sat Oct 24, 2020 6:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
I'm sure you're correct but I do like to expect/challenge/play/hope more and more from this movie lol.
Author:  Danhjpn [ Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Just realised that DS has done 10B yen/10 day without any holiday support and it
Author:  Corpse [ Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
There is only one holiday in October (already passed) and two in November (the 3rd and 23rd). Then there's nothing until Christmas/New Year (technically Christmas isn't a holiday, but it's generally a good day).

But it doesn't need holiday support. Every other film usually does if they want to reach certain milestones and such. But not this film, evident from its 70/80% sell-rate of its record seating across record showtimes. Social phenomenon films sort of create holidays around them. This one is just... even more.
Author:  Danhjpn [ Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Excuse me but it is beating its own last Sunday, isn't it???
Author:  Corpse [ Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Yes... so far. It's up about 9% versus last Sunday. And it has a 81.4% sell-rate in the early morning hours (8/9am showings), which is totally absurd. It's very early, but it's unlikely to really fall from that sell-rate % until very late night (after 9pm), so it *could* have its biggest day today.

I wasn't doubting its performance today, predicting it to be bigger than yesterday, but not potentially have its biggest day yet. I'm willing to bet the primetime TV broadcast of the anime which began last night is a major factor.
Author:  Cynosure [ Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
At 10 am it's only down 247 admissions vs last Sunday at the same time. :zonks:

It might actually get that second 3 billion yen weekend ?
Author:  Corpse [ Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Cynosure wrote:
At 10 am it's only down 247 admissions vs last Sunday at the same time. :zonks:

It might actually get that second 3 billion yen weekend ?



Spoiler: show
Image


YES.

If it drops ~7/8% today versus last Sunday, and yesterday's estimate is accurate, then yes; it might actually drop the 11.5% or less required to stay above ¥3 billion (~$30 million) this weekend.
Author:  Corpse [ Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Aeon Cinemas appears to have crashed. The recent updates(s) look "small", and while their website is loading, you can't access the ticket purchase page. It did around this time yesterday as well. But the missing sales were added I believe in the 12pm hour (possibly 2pm, I have to go check) yesterday, so if any are missing, look at those time frames.
Author:  R136a1 [ Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
At this point, I really don't see how it misses a 10x multiplier unless it falls off a cliff after the next weekend.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
All the signs are great for a bigger Sunday today than last weekend. :excited:
Author:  Corpse [ Sat Oct 24, 2020 11:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
As of noon: An insane 82.7% sell-rate (that is expected to inch higher, but it's so high it can't really go much higher). 14% behind last Sunday; 24% ahead of yesterday.

Last Sunday was also up similar 25% versus last Saturday before ending the day almost with an identical total. This is because Sunday morning and afternoon sales are generally stronger, while Saturday evening and night sales are generally stronger. The same situation should occur this weekend, but it's early enough in the day that Sunday could improve its lead.
Author:  Danhjpn [ Sat Oct 24, 2020 11:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Corpse wrote:
As of noon: An insane 82.7% sell-rate (that is expected to inch higher, but it's so high it can't really go much higher). 14% behind last Sunday; 24% ahead of yesterday.

Last Sunday was also up similar 25% versus last Saturday before ending the day almost with an identical total. This is because Sunday morning and afternoon sales are generally stronger, while Saturday evening and night sales are generally stronger. The same situation should occur this weekend, but it's early enough in the day that Sunday could improve its lead.

So the current number from usual locations is correct? Didnt miss anything?
I had a hope Sunday would be sub 10% drop from last Sunday.... hmm.....
Author:  Corpse [ Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
It can definitely still drop under 10% versus last Sunday. Over half the day remains. That's just the current trajectory as of noon (it's improved slightly since, too).

But seriously, guys... don't be disappointed by a 10% weekend decline coming off the biggest opening weekend ever by an incredible margin. All these numbers continue to remain in the stratosphere, and are re-breaking the old all-time records by nearly equal numbers for a second week now.

For two weekends in a row now, across a record amount of screens and showtimes, it's selling 4/5 seats across the nation.
Author:  chQta [ Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Chills!! Literal Chills guys!!
Author:  Corpse [ Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
So it's improved over the past 2 hours, and is now only 8% behind last Sunday, and 29% ahead of yesterday as of 2PM. Sell-rate an unbelievable 85.5%.

It has enough of a lead over yesterday now, I believe to finish above it come the end of the day. So... a second weekend right around ¥3 billion (~$30 million) / 2.25 million admissions continues to look realistic.

This second weekend is going to be the second biggest weekend ever, only behind its opening weekend. It's also looking to be 35% higher than the old opening weekend record before it was broken last weekend by 51%. It's also going to be break the second weekend record by over 90%.

It continues to look very likely that it'll take four weeks in release before it stops breaking the old all time records before it opened. Does this make sense? Its sort of hard to explain and wrap one's head around. If you just ignore what it did in its first week, and now in its second week, and likely in its third week next week, THEN it may stop breaking the old all time records. Let me know if I'm explaining this well.
Author:  JustLurking [ Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Isn't mimorin predicting it to end up at 1mln in usual locations today?

As of last sunday it was at 486297 over 581262 seats (83.6%), today it is at 447378 over 523007 seats (85.5%), and it even just went up to 85.8%. So for now I wouldn't be worried about a big drop at all tbh, might even legitimately see an increase.
Author:  Cynosure [ Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
At 2pm it's now down less than 4% vs Sunday at the same time last week.
Author:  Cynosure [ Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Corpse wrote:
So it's improved over the past 2 hours, and is now only 8% behind last Sunday, and 29% ahead of yesterday as of 2PM. Sell-rate an unbelievable 85.5%.

It has enough of a lead over yesterday now, I believe to finish above it come the end of the day. So... a second weekend right around ¥3 billion (~$30 million) / 2.25 million admissions continues to look realistic.

This second weekend is going to be the second biggest weekend ever, only behind its opening weekend. It's also looking to be 35% higher than the old opening weekend record before it was broken last weekend by 51%. It's also going to be break the second weekend record by over 90%.

It continues to look very likely that it'll take four weeks in release before it stops breaking the old all time records before it opened. Does this make sense? Its sort of hard to explain and wrap one's head around. If you just ignore what it did in its first week, and now in its second week, and likely in its third week next week, THEN it may stop breaking the old all time records. Let me know if I'm explaining this well.


It makes perfect sense. :yes:

So it may be close to 20 billion yen before it starts acting like a normal movie ? :whaa:
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