Captain America: Brave New World 106/126
Paddington In Peru 15/19

Cap 4 is all about reception. Based on PS today its looking at 40m Friday including previews(13/27 split). VD might impact saturday increase. I am seeing 85-90m 3 day and 105-110m till Presidents day.

On the Poll, its well below Ant 3 in pre sales. Its going to catch up but the gap is too much at the moment.

100m+ 3-day would be nice. Have been expecting high 70s/low 80s.

I would love to see Paddington do well, but it's never been a big hit in the US. The excellent second film, which held a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes for the longest time before someone ruined it, only made $41 million here after opening to $11 million over 3 days and $15 million over a 4-day weekend. Has the audience really grown that much since then?

I was thinking inflation would help it not lose too much audience from film 2.

The first Paddington actually did much better than 2, despite that most people would agree that P2 is the better film. I think Peru can at least rebound to the first's $70Mish total.

Capt 4: 88m
Paddington 3: 16m

Meta score starts at 46 but only 8 reviews. Get your pitchforks out :-)

hopefully the barren release slate can help it have ok legs anyway.

RT is at 48% with 61 reviews. I am expecting brutal legs. 1st there is very little hook with Mackie playing Cap which is a terrible idea.

A lot of reviews are saying "at least its better than Ant-Man 3" lol typical cope.

I'm still excited for it but it needed good reviews for anyone but fans to care.

Even the social media reactions were mixed.

wrap



DiscussionFilm

Oof. Ya this will probably not do 200m+.

It will still make more money than it deserves.

Kudos to Disney on releasing the reactions/reviews only in the 11hr. Cap branding was enough for presales.

It's still going to be a minor win for current state MCU as it should at least get to $180-200m (though may fall short). Audience reaction may be slightly better than that of the critics.

Apparently, the Marvel/MCU intro was scrapped for this film lol. Marvel does not want to associate with the MCU brand it seems. That's how much damage was done!!

Final prediction for the weekend.

Cap 4 - 12m previews/90m 3 day/103m 4 day (it will trend like Ant 3 than Guardians over the weekend)
Paddington - low double digits over 3 day/14-15m over 4 day weekend
Ne zha 2 - it opened yesterday(750K according to Charlie). its presales are stronger than Paddington but release is small and its only in Mandarin. So 8-9m till Monday.