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 Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Status 
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/01-02)
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(C)2018 Warner Bros. Ent. All Rights Reserved Harry Potter and Fantastic Beasts Publishing Rights (C)J.K. Rowling

Weekend Estimates (12/01-02)
01 (01) ¥752,000,000 ($6.6 million), -12%, ¥2,820,000,000 ($25.0 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK2
02 (02) ¥533,000,000 ($4.7 million), +35%, ¥3,305,000,000 ($29.3 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK4
03 (---) ¥175,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥220,000,000 ($1.9 million), The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney) NEW
04 (---) ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥170,000,000 ($1.5 million), Mobile Suit Gundam NT (Shochiku) NEW
05 (03) ¥x84,000,000 ($740,000), -28%, ¥1,605,000,000 ($14.2 million), Stolen Identity (Toho) WK4
06 (04) ¥x72,000,000 ($635,000), -28%, ¥700,000,000 ($6.2 million), The House Where the Mermaid Sleeps (Shochiku) WK3
07 (---) ¥x50,000,000 ($440,000), 0, ¥x60,000,000 ($530,000), Our Departures (Shochiku) NEW
08 (05) ¥x52,000,000 ($460,000), -48%, ¥2,045,000,000 ($18.1 million), Venom (Sony) WK5
09 (07) ¥x49,000,000 ($430,000), -19%, ¥425,000,000 ($3.8 million), BTS - Burn the Stage: The Movie (Toho Video Division) WK3
10 (06) ¥x46,000,000 ($405,000), -34%, ¥690,000,000 ($6.1 million), You, I Love (Asmik Ace) WK4


Note: Saturday (Dec. 1st) was a national discount ticket day, so weekend admissions experienced a spike, though this does lower the average ticket price for the weekend, which results in weekend grosses in percentages differing a lot from admissions. When a discount ticket day (1st of every month) falls on the weekend, revenue-to-admission percentage differ by about 10% (slightly higher for premium format films, slightly lower for senior and family skewing films)

>Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald held very well in its sophomore frame, actually matching/beating its opening weekend admissions (~+1%). It even makes my Biggest Second Weekends list by coming in above ¥700 million. This is, of course, due to Saturday being a discount ticket day, but it's pretty impressive regardless. The drop in gross will probably be higher than 10%, but I doubt it's more than 15%. It's still on track for at least ¥6 billion (~$55 million), but perhaps it can reach ¥7 billion ($60 million+) afterall.

Its second weekend is higher than its predecessor's (likely 10-15% higher), and it's particularly notable since it's actually the biggest second weekend for a film in the overall Wizarding World film series since Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire. Yeah, it received a boost in its second weekend, but that's a pretty incredible feat considering it opened noticeably lower than than Harry Potter's 1-5.

>Bohemian Rhapsody... it's hard to find the correct words to describe it now, since it's easily surpassing what Les Miserables and The Greatest Showman did before it. It has increased every weekend since opening, and has either remained flat week-to-week or even increased. Its estimated fourth weekend is just a bit shy of the Top 20 all-time. I knew it would have a strong run in Japan, but it's already exceeded a multiplier of 9 after a mere four weeks in release...

A ¥5 billion (~$45 million) total would have been an excellent finish following a near phenomenal run (that'd be a 14+ multiplier!), but I'm confident it's going to blow past that mark at this point. I think this may have the potential to reach/exceed ¥6 billion (~$55 million), and possibly even approach a total of ¥7 billion ($60 million+), or more. This is one of those rare films that just connects with Japanese moviegoers, and we'll have to enjoy the ride for several more weeks/months before projecting a possible finish.

>The Nutcracker and the Four Realms debuts within expectations and will be hoping to hold well enough to reach the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone.

>Mobile Suit Gundam NT did very well over the weekend, selling almost 40% of its available tickets. It certainly came in above the last Mobile Suit Gundam film.

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Last edited by Corpse on Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:48 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Biggest Second Weekends
Biggest Second Weekends/Two Week Totals (2000-):
¥1.57 billion ($12.2 million), +02%, ¥4.66 billion ($36.9 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥1.39 billion ($11.3 million), -31%, ¥4.56 billion ($37.7 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥1.26 billion ($11.6 million), -35%, ¥4.19 billion ($38.5 million) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥1.25 billion ($11.7 million), -16%, ¥4.75 billion ($44.5 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥1.17 billion ($9.6 million), -21%, ¥4.39 billion ($36.2 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥1.16 billion ($11.2 million), +25%, ¥3.87 billion ($37.6 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥1.12 billion ($10.0 million), +05%, ¥3.65 billion ($32.7 million) - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥1.11 billion ($13.8 million), -08%, ¥3.61 billion ($44.4 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥1.09 billion ($9.3 million), -50%, ¥4.68 billion ($39.7 million) - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥1.08 billion ($9.0 million), -19%, ¥3.62 billion ($30.1 million) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥1.04 billion ($10.8 million), -14%, ¥3.33 billion ($33.8 million) - Rookies (2009)
¥1.02 billion ($10.9 million), -22%, ¥3.54 billion ($37.7 million) - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥1.02 billion ($9.1 million), -20%, ¥3.60 billion ($31.7 million) - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
¥975 million ($8.7 million), -02%, ¥4.24 billion ($34.6 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥941 million ($7.6 million), +11%, ¥4.36 billion ($35.0 million) - Jurassic World (2015)
¥936 million ($7.9 million), -25%, ¥3.18 billion ($26.9 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥872 million ($8.6 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million) - Frozen (2014)
¥860 million ($8.0 million), -04%, ¥2.49 billion ($23.1 million) - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥820 million ($7.6 million), -37%, ¥3.23 billion ($30.0 million) - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
¥820 million ($7.1 million), -19%, ¥2.98 billion ($25.8 million) - Hero (2007)
¥814 million ($7.3 million), -62%, ¥4.07 billion ($36.1 million) - Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005)
¥811 million ($8.3 million), -16%, ¥2.85 billion ($29.2 million) - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥810 million ($7.5 million), -48%, ¥3.43 billion ($30.8 million) - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥806 million ($7.6 million), -22%, ¥3.23 billion ($30.5 million) - Ponyo (2008)
¥757 million ($6.8 million), -38%, ¥3.56 billion ($31.6 million) - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
¥756 million ($7.1 million), -25%, ¥2.62 billion ($25.0 million) - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)
¥748 million ($6.8 million), -42%, ¥2.76 billion ($25.1 million) - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
¥744 million ($6.6 million), -13%, ¥2.89 billion ($25.6 million) - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (2018)
¥740 million ($6.5 million), -29%, ¥2.62 billion ($23.2 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)
¥728 million ($8.2 million), -26%, ¥2.37 billion ($27.3 million) - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥726 million ($6.0 million), -42%, ¥3.84 billion ($31.8 million) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
¥708 million ($6.3 million), -27%, ¥2.35 billion ($21.8 million) - Umizaru: The Limit of Love (2006)
¥705 million ($6.1 million), -63%, ¥3.75 billion ($32.4 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥704 million ($8.6 million), -48%, ¥2.86 billion ($34.7 million) - One Piece Film Z (2012)
¥704 million ($6.6 million), -17%, ¥1.71 billion ($16.0 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (2018)
¥703 million ($7.2 million), -17%, ¥2.49 billion ($25.4 million) - Monsters University (2013)
¥701 million ($6.9 million), -09%, ¥3.27 billion ($32.1 million) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014)

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Last edited by Corpse on Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:49 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Biggest Fourth Weekends
EDIT: Bohemian Rhapsody fell just shy with actuals of the minimum I use to include films on the Biggest Fourth Weekends list. Still a very, very impressive fourth weekend though!

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Last edited by Corpse on Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:02 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Bohemian Rhapsody Weekly Performance
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Bohemian Rhapsody - Weekly Performance

WK1: ¥354.3 million ($3.2 million)
WK2: ¥388.5 million ($3.4 million), +10%, ¥1.321 billion ($11.7 million)
WK3: ¥395.0 million ($3.5 million), +02%, ¥2.336 billion ($20.8 million)
WK4: ¥496.0 million ($4.4 million), +26%, ¥3.323 billion ($29.4 million)


Getting a "head start" on this since I'm confident it's going to end up among the very best performances ever at the box office.

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Last edited by Corpse on Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.



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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/01-02)
It needs less than ¥12 billion to top Frozen for highest multiplier of all time (well, wide debuts since 1998)...Of course it's a bit too early for that but given its current run, who knows ?


Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:56 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/01-02)
Its run so far is somewhat similar to that of Les Miserables, which closed with a phenomenal 19.96 multiplier, the seventh highest since 1998, just on a slightly bigger scale. In fact, their weekly multipliers have ran very closely to each other after 4 weeks, and are almost identical right now:

Bohemian Rhapsody - Weekly Performance
WK1: ¥354.3 million ($3.2 million)
WK2: ¥388.5 million ($3.4 million), +10%, ¥1.32 billion ($11.7 million)
WK3: ¥395.0 million ($3.5 million), +02%, ¥2.33 billion ($20.8 million)
WK4: ¥496.0 million ($4.4 million), +26%, ¥3.32 billion ($29.4 million)


Les Miserables - Weekly Performance
WK1: ¥295.4 million ($3.6 million)
WK2: ¥256.8 million ($3.1 million), -13%, ¥1.13 billion ($13.3 million)
WK3: ¥286.3 million ($3.3 million), +11%, ¥2.11 billion ($24.8 million)
WK4: ¥287.1 million ($3.4 million), +0.3%, ¥2.75 billion ($32.0 million)


Multiplier Comparison (Bohemian Rhapsody vs Les Miserables)
WK2: x3.73 vs x3.82
WK3: x6.60 vs x7.14
WK4: x9.38 vs x9.31


Bohemian Rhapsody is certainly on track to approach a multiplier of 20, which would allow it to exceed ¥7 billion ($62/63 million), if it continues to track like this.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”


Last edited by Corpse on Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Sun Dec 02, 2018 9:36 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/01-02)
The 2019 box office year has started already. One box office run I am excited about is the new Dragon Ball movie coming on Dec 14 in Japan. I wonder Corpse how much will it prob gross, and pre-sales for it?


Mon Dec 03, 2018 1:17 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/01-02)
The 2019 Box Office Year has indeed begun in Japan (1st of December), glad you remembered. :)

I'll have this past Weekend's Actuals up late tomorrow afternoon, then followed by the first of the 2019 Yearly Charts.

In regard to Dragon Ball Super: Broly, I'll check pre-sales later this week for you. I'm expecting it'll at least deliver a similar performance as the last film, Resurrection F. I'll have more on it closer to its release date.

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Mon Dec 03, 2018 10:35 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (12/01-02)
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(C)2018 Warner Bros. Ent. All Rights Reserved Harry Potter and Fantastic Beasts Publishing Rights (C)J.K. Rowling

Weekend Actuals (12/01-02)
01 (01) ¥744,322,800 ($6.6 million), -13%, ¥2,891,371,400 ($25.6 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK2
02 (02) ¥496,048,900 ($4.4 million), +26%, ¥3,323,581,780 ($29.4 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK4
03 (---) ¥161,333,300 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥203,667,400 ($1.8 million), The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney) NEW
04 (---) ¥120,562,800 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥177,859,300 ($1.6 million), Mobile Suit Gundam NT (Shochiku) NEW
05 (03) ¥x83,622,800 ($736,000), -28%, ¥1,619,882,900 ($14.3 million), Stolen Identity (Toho) WK4
06 (04) ¥x71,989,600 ($634,000), -28%, ¥720,071,000 ($6.4 million), The House Where the Mermaid Sleeps (Shochiku) WK3
07 (07) ¥x56,529,700 ($498,000), -09%, ¥438,335,300 ($3.9 million), BTS - Burn the Stage: The Movie (Toho Video Division) WK3
08 (05) ¥x52,630,400 ($463,000), -48%, ¥2,055,372,700 ($18.2 million), Venom (Sony) WK5
09 (06) ¥x47,907,100 ($422,000), -31%, ¥699,425,600 ($6.2 million), You, I Love (Asmik Ace) WK4
10 (---) ¥x40,109,000 ($353,000), 0, ¥x64,855,900 ($571,000), Our Departures (Shochiku) NEW


And so begins the 2019 Box Office Year! And quite the strong weekend. For those unfamiliar with how the Japanese Box Office works, Eiren (Japanese Producers Association of Japan) determine the rules and regulations of the box office industry in the market, and the box office year begins on December 1st. Any film released in December is considered a release in the forthcoming year (e.g. a December 2018 film is technically a 2019 film in Japan).

Also: If a film released before December 1st doesn't gross at least ¥1 billion before that day, but would after that day, it's then moved to the forthcoming year.


>Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald held very well in its sophomore frame, dropping just 13% over the weekend and remaining flat in admissions due to discount boost from Saturday. Its second weekend is 10% above that of the original, and it's particularly impressive since it actually achieved the biggest second weekend for a film in the overall Wizarding World film series since Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire.

Fantastic Beasts 2 is on track for a total above ¥6 billion ($55 million), and has a good shot at reaching the ¥7 billion ($60-65 million) milestone. A ¥7 billion total would put it on par with the original Fantastic Beasts (¥7.34 billion), as well as the lowest grossing Harry Potter film, Deathly Hallows - Part 1 (¥6.86 billion).

>Bohemian Rhapsody enjoyed a significant increase in its fourth weekend due to the discount day on Saturday, and achieved its third-consecutive weekend increase. I'll be tracking the film very closely from this point on given how it hasn't slowed down in the slightest, with its opening week still being its weakest. It'll easily exceed the ¥5 billion ($45 million) blockbuster milestone.

A ¥5 billion (~$45 million) total would have been an excellent finish here after a near phenomenal run (that'd be a 14+ multiplier!), but I'm confident it's going to blow past that milestone and potentially climb as high as ¥7 billion ($60-65 million), or maybe even higher. This is one of those rare films that just connects with Japanese moviegoers, and we'll have to enjoy the ride for several more weeks/months before projecting a possible finish.

>The Nutcracker and the Four Realms settles for an expected third place start, selling 142,046 admissions over the weekend frame across 439 screens; and selling 176,212 admissions since opening on Friday. Not much to say here; the film wasn't expected to do well, and it didn't.

>Mobile Suit Gundam NT comes in fourth place, selling an impressive 89,919 admissions over the weekend frame in limited release on just 89 screens. This is up 27% compared to the last Mobile Suit Gundam release.

>Venom exceeds the ¥2 billion milestone, becoming the eleventh Marvel/DC film to reach this mark, and only the fourth non-Spider-Man/Avengers release to do so. While the film has been pretty frontoaded, it's done enough to be considered a mini-breakout.

NOTE: All lists above featuring Fantastic Beasts 2's and Bohemian Rhapsody's weekend estimates have been updated with weekend actuals.

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Last edited by Corpse on Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:45 pm, edited 3 times in total.



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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Grossing Films: 2018
2018 - Top Grossing Films
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days In Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥10 billion ↨
¥9.23 billion ($83.1 million) / 7.18 million [E] - Code Blue (Toho)
¥9.10 billion ($83.0 million) / 6.83 million [E] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Toho)
¥8.06 billion ($72.2 million) / 5.53 million [E] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Toho-Towa)
¥7.50 billion ($66.2 million) / 5.05 million [F] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)
¥5.37 billion ($50.0 million) / 4.68 million [F] - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho)
¥5.13 billion ($47.8 million) / 3.67 million [E] - The Greatest Showman (Fox)

¥5 billion ↨
¥4.93 billion ($46.0 million) / 3.93 million [E] - Coco (Disney)
¥4.83 billion ($43.7 million) / 4.02 million [E] - Incredibles 2 (Disney)
¥4.68 billion ($42.2 million) / 3.39 million [E] - Mission: Impossible - Fallout (Toho-Towa)
¥4.31 billion ($39.0 million) / 3.50 million [E] - Shoplifters (Gaga)
¥3.73 billion ($34.0 million) / 2.50 million [F] - Avengers: Infinity War (Disney)
¥3.60 billion ($32.4 million) / 2.79 million [E] - Gintama 2 (Warner Bros.)
¥3.43 billion ($31.8 million) / 2.93 million [F] - The Boss Baby (Toho-Towa)
¥3.32 billion ($29.4 million) / 2.43 million [24] - Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox)
¥3.21 billion ($28.6 million) / 2.54 million [F] - Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho)
¥3.06 billion ($27.5 million) / 2.19 million [E] - One Cut of the Dead (Asmik Ace)
¥3.00 billion ($27.2 million) / 2.64 million [E] - Pokemon: Everyone's Story (Toho)

¥3 billion ↨
¥2.90 billion ($26.1 million) / 2.30 million [E] - Killing for the Prosecutors (Toho)
¥2.89 billion ($25.6 million) / 2.06 million [10] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.)
¥2.82 billion ($25.7 million) / 2.24 million [E] - Mirai of the Future (Toho)
¥2.80 billion ($25.0 million) / 2.23 million [F] - The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku)
¥2.50 billion ($22.8 million) / 1.53 million [E] - Ready Player One (Warner Bros.)
¥2.41 billion ($21.3 million) / 1.81 million [E] - Christopher Robin (Disney)
¥2.09 billion ($18.9 million) / 1.50 million [E] - Solo: A Star Wars Story (Disney)
¥2.06 billion ($18.2 million) / 1.43 million [31] - Venom (Sony)
¥2.04 billion ($18.2 million) / 1.82 million [F] - Yo-Kai Watch: Shadowside - Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho)

¥2 billion ↨
¥1.83 billion ($16.6 million) / 1.55 million [F] - Crayon Shin-chan: Kung-Fu Boys Ramen Rebellion (Toho)
¥1.78 billion ($16.2 million) / 1.18 million [E] - Deadpool 2 (Fox)
¥1.73 billion ($16.1 million) / 1.47 million [F] - Chihayafuru: Conclusion (Toho)
¥1.70 billion ($15.5 million) / 1.40 million [F] - Legend of the Demon Cat (Toho/Kadokawa)
¥1.70 billion ($15.3 million) / 1.22 million [F] - Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox)
¥1.70 billion ($15.2 million) / 1.36 million [E] - Recall (Shochiku)
¥1.64 billion ($14.8 million) / 1.25 million [E] - Ocean's 8 (Warner Bros.)
¥1.62 billion ($14.5 million) / 1.28 million [F] - Murder on the Orient Express (Fox)
¥1.62 billion ($14.3 million) / 1.23 million [31] - Stolen Identity (Toho)
¥1.60 billion ($14.5 million) / 1.29 million [E] - My Hero Academia: Two Heroes (Toho)
¥1.59 billion ($14.5 million) / 1.27 million [F] - The Crimes That Bind (Toho)
¥1.55 billion ($14.4 million) / 1.03 million [F] - Black Panther (Disney)
¥1.48 billion ($13.0 million) / 0.98 million [E] - The Meg (Warner Bros.)
¥1.45 billion ($12.9 million) / 1.14 million [E] - Café Funiculi Funicula (Toho)
¥1.38 billion ($12.4 million) / 1.06 million [F] - Laplace's Witch (Toho)
¥1.28 billion ($11.4 million) / 0.90 million [E] - Ant-Man and the Wasp (Disney)
¥1.26 billion ($11.3 million) / 1.06 million [E] - Kamen Hensei Generations FINAL: Build & Ex-Aid With Legend Riders (Toei)
¥1.23 billion ($11.2 million) / 0.90 million [E] - Geostorm (Warner Bros.)
¥1.21 billion ($11.0 million) / 0.97 million [E] - 50 First Kisses (Sony)
¥1.21 billion ($11.0 million) / 0.83 million [E] - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (Sony)
¥1.20 billion ($11.0 million) / 0.97 million [E] - Sakura: Guardian in the North (Toei)
¥1.18 billion ($10.7 million) / 1.00 million [E] - Sensei Kunshu (Toho)
¥1.12 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.87 million [E] - Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.)
¥1.11 billion ($9.9 million) / 0.89 million [E] - Peter Rabbit (Sony)
¥1.11 billion ($9.8 million) / 0.88 million [54] - Every Day, A Good Day (Tokyo Theaters, Co.)
¥1.09 billion ($9.7 million) / 0.94 million [44] - Hugtto! Pretty Cure: All Star Memories (Toei)
¥1.01 billion ($9.5 million) / 0.79 million [E] - Tonight, at the Movies (Warner Bros.)
¥1.00 billion ($9.1 million) / 0.84 million [E] - Kamen Rider Build: Be the One (Toei)

¥1 billion ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

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Last edited by Corpse on Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.



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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Opening Weekends: 2019
2019 - Top Opening Weekends
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Distributor)

¥1 billion ↨
¥500 million ↨
¥300 million ↨
¥200 million ↨
¥161.3 million ($1.4 million) / 142,046 [439] - The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney)
¥120.5 million ($1.0 million) / x89,919 [x89] - Mobile Suit Gundam NT (Shochiku)

¥100 million ↑

Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; 2019 Box Office Year Beg
Bohemian Rhapsody, the sing-along version, will be expanding to 118 locations this week, meaning 32% of its overall theater count will soon include the sing-along version.

Its fourth week of weekdays are also its strongest yet, once again increasing week-to-week so far (e.g. fourth Monday > third Monday > second Monday > first Monday). There's no slowing down in slight for this one yet, and the New Year holidays are less than a month away now, too.

It's still probably a bit of a long shot, but there's the possibility that it could challenge Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom to become the #1 highest grossing imported release of 2018 in the market. It's overtaken them in week four on a daily basis.

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Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:10 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Biggest December Opening Weekends
In anticipation of one or more films having a big opening this month, here is the list of Biggest December Opening Weekends (all above ¥500 million), and a list of contenders that could make it:

Biggest December Opening Weekends [1998-]

Rank - Weekend Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions - Film
01. ¥1.629 billion ($14.0 million) / 1,484,916 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
02. ¥1.570 billion ($12.2 million) / 1,279,120 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
03. ¥1.372 billion ($16.7 million) / 1,140,081 - One Piece Film Z (2012)
04. ¥1.245 billion ($10.3 million) / 800,258 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
05. ¥1.125 billion ($9.9 million) / 737,467 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
06. ¥1.058 billion ($8.7 million) / 974,557 - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
07. ¥1.038 billion ($11.9 million) / 819,738 - One Piece Film Strong World (2009)
08. ¥902.3 million ($8.4 million) / 622,000 - The Last Samurai (2003)
09. ¥898.0 million ($8.4 million) / 724,000 - Finding Nemo (2003)
10. ¥751.8 million ($7.3 million) / 604,355 - The Incredibles (2004)
11. ¥653.4 million ($5.7 million) / 413,604 - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016)
12. ¥649.8 million ($6.4 million) / 539,132 - Lupin III vs. Detective Conan (2013)
13. ¥608.0 million ($5.3 million) / 545,211 - Yo-Kai Watch: Great Adventure of the Flying Whale and the Double Worlds, Nyan! (2016)
14. ¥600.4 million ($5.2 million) / 463,556 - Big Hero 6 (2014)
15. ¥597.3 million ($6.6 million) / 398,795 - Avatar (2009)
16. ¥578.3 million ($5.2 million) / 438,771 - I Am Legend (2007)
17. ¥572.8 million ($7.3 million) / 437,750 - Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (2011)
18. ¥542.3 million ($5.3 million) / 429,918 - The Eternal Zero (2013)
19. ¥528.2 million ($6.4 million) / 412,129 - Space Battleship Yamato (2010)
20. ¥515.3 million ($4.4 million) / 396,280 - The Last: Naruto the Movie (2014)


Possible Contenders:
12/14 - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Locked)
12/14 - The Grinch (Maybe)
12/14 - Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Unlikely)
12/21 - Ralph Breaks the Internet (Likely)
12/21 - Nisekoi: False Love (Unlikely)
12/22 - Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Very Unlikely)

Dragon Ball Super: Broly is probably the only lock to open above ¥500 million, and if it can match its predecessor, then it may have a shot at ¥1 billion as well.

Ralph Breaks the Internet is likely to open above ¥500 million, too, but probably not much higher. I could also see it barely falling short of the mark since the first film, while successful, wasn't very big in the market. Walt Disney Animation has become considerably bigger since the release of the original, though, so it should make the list.

The Grinch will be a good test for Illumination to see if they've truly reached household name status, and if they can more or less release anything to successful numbers, without having to rely on the minions brand...or quality. It's showing solid signs online, and Benedict Cumberbatch gives it a familiar voice (he's popular in Japan), but ¥500 million is still a lot to ask here.

I don't believe any other December release has a shot at making the list, but never say never. The Yo-Kai Watch craze died down a couple years ago, but I have seen signs of it stabilizing and possibly growing just a bit based on the anime's weekly TV ratings and game sales. Last year's film opened to ¥399 million, so ¥500 million isn't impossible (but still unlikely).

And to those wondering, all of the Hollywood tentpoles like Mary Poppins Returns, Aquaman, Mortal Engines, Bumblebee, etc. are February or March releases in Japan.

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Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:32 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; 2019 Box Office Year Beg
BR will be number 1 this weekend.


Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:08 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; 2019 Box Office Year Beg
Three animated films all opening on December 14, followed by another major one the following weekend. Seems like a lot of competition for the family demographic.


Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:56 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; 2019 Box Office Year Beg
It might seem that way, but they'll all co-exist quite effortlessly. All four films are targeting different demographics, despite being animated. Animated film = majority family audience doesn't translate very well in Japan, at least compared to the U.S. and other notable markets. There have been many weeks where half or more of the Top 10 films are animated.

Dragon Ball Super: Broly will attract fans of the franchise, almost exclusively. This will comprise mostly of young adults/adult audiences (think 20-50 year-olds). Families and children will have very little interest in it.

Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends will strictly appeal to the very, very young (elementary-aged children) and their parents. Even children aged 8-10 are often too old and have little or no interest in the series. This is one of the big reasons the franchise experienced such a huge decline in just a two-year span, the audience simply outgrew it that fast. The film won't even have showtimes after 5/6PM.

Ralph Breaks the Internet will have a pretty diverse audience, as most animated Disney films do, but this one may lean bit toward teens/young adults.

The Grinch is the wild card. Illumination films have skewed pretty young in the past based on how they perform throughout the day along with all of them earning low average ticket prices, so I'd presume this film will as well. And, if so, this would also give it a demographic of its own as well -- one that is too old for Yo-Kai Watch, but perhaps not old enough for Ralph.

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Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:19 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/08-09)
Image
(C)2018 Warner Bros. Ent. All Rights Reserved Harry Potter and Fantastic Beasts Publishing Rights (C)J.K. Rowling

Weekend Estimates (12/08-09)
01 (01) ¥528,000,000 ($4.7 million), -29%, ¥3,850,000,000 ($34.2 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK3
02 (02) ¥471,000,000 ($4.2 million), -05%, ¥4,250,000,000 ($37.5 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK5
03 (---) ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), It Comes (Toho) NEW
04 (03) ¥102,000,000 ($905,000), -37%, ¥415,000,000 ($3.7 million), The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney) WK2
05 (04) ¥x72,000,000 ($640,000), -40%, ¥325,000,000 ($2.9 million), Mobile Suit Gundam NT (Shochiku) WK2
06 (05) ¥x58,000,000 ($515,000), -30%, ¥1,735,000,000 ($15.3 million), Stolen Identity (Toho) WK5
07 (06) ¥x44,000,000 ($390,000), -39%, ¥825,000,000 ($7.3 million), The House Where the Mermaid Sleeps (Shochiku) WK4
08 (09) ¥x36,000,000 ($320,000), -26%, ¥755,000,000 ($6.7 million), You, I Love (Asmik Ace) WK5
09 (08) ¥x32,000,000 ($285,000), -40%, ¥2,120,000,000 ($18.8 million), Venom (Sony) WK6
10 (10) ¥x22,000,000 ($195,000), -44%, ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), Our Departures (Shochiku) WK2


Pretty busy this weekend, so I wasn't able to post a Weekend Forecast, but here are the Weekend Estimates. :thumbsup: I'll write up a full analysis tomorrow with the Weekend Actuals, but overall it was an expected weekend.

>Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald repeats at #1 for a third-consecutive weekend, and held well after a boosted second weekend. The good decline probably suggests it'll hold on well through the remainder of its run, and it'll likely finish pretty close to the original.

>Bohemian Rhapsody seeing a single digit drop after a boosted weekend last week is phenomenal though. Its estimated fifth weekend is over 30% higher than its opening weekend, and its weekly earnings continue to remain nearly flat since week one.

>It Comes had a mediocre start.

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Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:58 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Bohemian Rhapsody Weekly Performance
Bohemian Rhapsody - Weekly Performance
WK1: ¥354.3 million ($3.2 million)
WK2: ¥388.5 million ($3.4 million), +10%, ¥1.32 billion ($11.7 million)
WK3: ¥395.0 million ($3.5 million), +02%, ¥2.33 billion ($20.8 million)
WK4: ¥496.0 million ($4.4 million), +26%, ¥3.32 billion ($29.4 million)
WK5: ¥471.0 million ($4.2 million), -05%, ¥4.25 billion ($37.5 million) *Estimate*


Les Miserables - Weekly Performance
WK1: ¥295.4 million ($3.6 million)
WK2: ¥256.8 million ($3.1 million), -13%, ¥1.13 billion ($13.3 million)
WK3: ¥286.3 million ($3.3 million), +11%, ¥2.11 billion ($24.8 million)
WK4: ¥287.1 million ($3.4 million), +0.3%, ¥2.75 billion ($32.0 million)
WK5: ¥215.5 million ($2.5 million), -25%, ¥3.36 billion ($38.8 million)
Final: ¥5.89 billion ($65.3 million) / 4.8 million admissions / x19.96 Multiplier


Multiplier Comparison (Bohemian Rhapsody vs Les Miserables)
WK2: x3.73 vs x3.82
WK3: x6.60 vs x7.14
WK4: x9.38 vs x9.31
WK5: x11.99 vs. x11.36

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Last edited by Corpse on Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:32 am, edited 1 time in total.



Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:06 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/08-09)
So Broly could have an opening as good as Resurrection F even with it being the Xmas holidays?

Is it more likely to have better legs because this one is opening at this time?


Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:19 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/08-09)
Christmas doesn't provide much of a boost at the box office in Japan. The first week of January (New Year) is where the box office explodes.

Dragon Ball Super: Broly should have a similar opening as the last film. And I believe that it's opening early enough that, while New Year will give it a boost, it won't benefit too much from the holidays given the frontloaded nature of the film franchise. That said, the boost it does receive could give it slightly better legs, but don't expect much better than the last two films because they each benefited from Golden Week a few weeks after they opened.

I'll have more info about it in the coming days.

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Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:54 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Bohemian Rhapsody Weekly Performance
Bohemian Rhapsody came in above weekend estimates (still #2 though) and somehow, incredibly, managed to pull off yet another weekend increase, its fourth-consecutive now following what was an already bolstered fourth weekend.

I've been comparing it to Les Miserables, since it was tracking fairly closely to it (in terms of weekly earnings, multipliers, etc.), but it's pulled ahead by a solid margin in week 5. So, I'll have list of the Best Multipliers After X Weeks below the running weekly performance updates:

Bohemian Rhapsody - Weekly Performance
WK1: ¥354.3 million ($3.2 million)
WK2: ¥388.5 million ($3.4 million), +10%, ¥1.321 billion ($11.7 million)
WK3: ¥395.0 million ($3.5 million), +02%, ¥2.336 billion ($20.8 million)
WK4: ¥496.0 million ($4.4 million), +26%, ¥3.323 billion ($29.4 million)
WK5: ¥505.1 million ($4.5 million), +02%, ¥4.394 billion ($38.9 million)


So Far: Weekend Gross (48.9%) / Weekday Gross (51.1%)

Best Multipliers After 5 Weeks/Final Mutiplier:
13.12/30.37 - Spirited Away (2001)
12.41/??.?? - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
12.16/33.34 - Frozen (2014)
12.00/26.92 - Your Name. (2016)
11.73/26.13 - Avatar (2009)
11.48/16.44 - The Cat Returns (2002)
11.36/19.96 - Les Miserables (2012)
11.16/26.99 - Princess Mononoke (1997)

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Last edited by Corpse on Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:06 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Bohemian Rhapsody Hits Phenom Status
Wow, I'm speechless about Bohemian Rhapsody's run. It has to slow down at some point right? :noway:


Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:07 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Bohemian Rhapsody Hits Phenom Status
I wonder will BR have sucked all the oxygen out of the market for musicals by the time ASIB comes around?


Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:34 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Bohemian Rhapsody Hits Phenom Status
A Star Is Born's success will be more dependent upon how it performs during Award Season. I think it'll be a solid success at the box office, but to become a hit, it needs that award buzz it currently has to equal award wins.

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Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:08 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (12/08-09)
Page Bump (Weekend Actuals & Chart Updates) ->>

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Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:38 pm
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