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 KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - FINAL RESULTS 
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KJ's Leading Pundit
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
:sweat:

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Thu Aug 09, 2018 11:16 am
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
Wow, I'm shocked I'm doing so well, seeing as how some of my predictions were absolute trash. (See Uncle Drew and Tag)

That 20 point bonus isn't going to anyone this Summer though, with M:I sure to land at 5.


Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:05 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
Yes MI6 has that #5 position pretty much locked up unless it falls very heavily in face of Meg.


Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:42 am
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Weekly Ranking for Aug 12

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Total Gross Projections
Ant-Man and the Wasp - $215 million
Avengers: Infinity War - $679 million
Book Club - $68.7 million
Breaking In - $46.383 million
Christopher Robin - $80 million
Deadpool 2 - $318.6 million
The Equalizer 2 - $102 million
The First Purge - $69.6 million
Hereditary - $44.1 million
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation - $160 million
Incredibles 2 - $601 million
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $414 million
Life of the Party - $52.856 million
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! - $116 million
The Meg - $120 million
Mission: Impossible - Fallout - $225 million
Ocean's 8 - $139 million
Sicario: Day of the Soldado - $50.4 million
Skyscraper - $68.1 million
Solo: A Star Wars Story - $213.1 million
The Spy Who Dumped Me - $34 million
Tag - $54.4 million
Teen Titans Go! To The Movies - $27.5 million
Uncle Drew - $42.4 million

Current Top 5
1. Avengers: Infinity War - $678.4 million
2. Incredibles 2 - $589.9 million
3. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $409.6 million
4. Deadpool 2 - $318.1 million
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story - $213.3 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#1: Which will gross more in total - Avengers: Infinity War, the combination of Incredibles 2 and Mission: Impossible - Fallout, the combination of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Ant-Man and the Wasp?
  • The combination of Incredibles 2 and Mission: Impossible - Fallout

#2: Which will gross more in total - the combination of Deadpool 2 and Skyscraper, the combination of Solo: A Star Wars Story and Christopher Robin?
  • The combination of Deadpool 2 and Skyscraper

#3: Which 2 of the following films will gross closest to each other in total in dollars - Crazy Rich Asians, The Spy Who Dumped Me, Tag, or Uncle Drew?
  • Tag and Uncle Drew (currently within $12.0 million of each other)

#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - Deadpool 2, The First Purge, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, or Sicario 2: Soldado?
  • Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (currently -37.2%)

#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - Deadpool 2, The First Purge, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, or Sicario 2: Soldado?
  • Sicario: Day of the Soldado (currently +5.8%)

#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends?
  • Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (currently $103.8 million)

#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend?
  • Hotel Artemis (-2,136 theaters)

#8: How many films will gross over $100 million?
  • Ten (Avengers: Infinity War, Deadpool 2, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Incredibles 2, Ocean's 8, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again)

#9: How many films will gross over $200 million?
  • Five (Avengers: Infinity War, Deadpool 2, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom)

#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)?
  • Adrift (currently $31.4 million)


Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:56 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
Adrift is not a very impressive winner of question no. 10, gross-wise. I wonder if the final answer will end up being The Happytime Murders or Mile 22.

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Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:20 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
I'm shocked it's held that question that long. You're right though - it's gotta be Happytime Murders or Mile 22 that takes it.


Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:39 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
Movies over $200 million should be six. It's missing Ant-Man and the Wasp and Incredibles 2.

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Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:56 am
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Weekly Ranking for Aug 19

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Total Gross Projections
Ant-Man and the Wasp - $215 million
Avengers: Infinity War - $679 million
Book Club - $68.566 million
Breaking In - $46.383 million
Christopher Robin - $85 million
Crazy Rich Asians - $85 million
Deadpool 2 - $318.6 million
The Equalizer 2 - $101 million
The First Purge - $69.1 million
Hereditary - $44.1 million
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation - $162 million
Incredibles 2 - $601 million
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $414 million
Life of the Party - $52.856 million
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! - $119 million
The Meg - $120 million
Mission: Impossible - Fallout - $215 million
Ocean's 8 - $139 million
Sicario: Day of the Soldado - $50.1 million
Skyscraper - $67.7 million
Solo: A Star Wars Story - $213.9 million
The Spy Who Dumped Me - $34 million
Tag - $54.4 million
Teen Titans Go! To The Movies - $28.7 million
Uncle Drew - $42.4 million

Current Top 5
1. Avengers: Infinity War - $678.6 million
2. Incredibles 2 - $594.1 million
3. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $411.8 million
4. Deadpool 2 - $318.3 million
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story - $213.5 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#1: Which will gross more in total - Avengers: Infinity War, the combination of Incredibles 2 and Mission: Impossible - Fallout, the combination of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Ant-Man and the Wasp?
  • The combination of Incredibles 2 and Mission: Impossible - Fallout

#2: Which will gross more in total - the combination of Deadpool 2 and Skyscraper, the combination of Solo: A Star Wars Story and Christopher Robin?
  • The combination of Deadpool 2 and Skyscraper

#3: Which 2 of the following films will gross closest to each other in total in dollars - Crazy Rich Asians, The Spy Who Dumped Me, Tag, or Uncle Drew?
  • Crazy Rich Asians and The Spy Who Dumped Me (currently within $4.0 million of each other)

#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - Deadpool 2, The First Purge, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, or Sicario 2: Soldado?
  • Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (currently -37.2%)

#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - Deadpool 2, The First Purge, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, or Sicario 2: Soldado?
  • Sicario: Day of the Soldado (currently +6.0%)

#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends?
  • Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (currently $111.2 million)

#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend?
  • Hotel Artemis (-2,136 theaters)

#8: How many films will gross over $100 million?
  • Ten (Avengers: Infinity War, Deadpool 2, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Incredibles 2, Ocean's 8, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again)

#9: How many films will gross over $200 million?
  • Six (Avengers: Infinity War, Deadpool 2, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Ant-Man and the Wasp)

#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)?
  • Adrift (currently $31.4 million)


Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:55 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
Possible changes in the top 10 ranking we can forecast:

TOTAL GROSS PREDICTIONS: Ant-Man and the Wasp

10% CHANCE
-Ant-Man and the Wasp passes $220 million.
Biggestgeekever lose 3 points.


TOTAL GROSS PREDICTIONS: Christopher Robin

40% CHANCE
-Christopher Robin grosses between $87.5 million and $100 million.
Biggestgeekever, MGKC, and Chippy gain 3 points.
SolC9 loses 3 points.

10% CHANCE
-Christopher Robin grosses between $70.751 million and $81.999 million.
Scoobydelite loses 3 points.


TOTAL GROSS PREDICTIONS: Crazy Rich Asians

10% CHANCE
-Crazy Rich Asians grosses between $74.01 million and $79.999 million.
Zwackerm and Rev lose 3 points.

30% CHANCE
-Crazy Rich Asians grosses between $80 million and $84.999 million.
Zwackerm loses 3 points.

30% CHANCE
-Crazy Rich Asians grosses between $85.001 million and $97 million.
Vanilla loses 3 points.

15% CHANCE
-Crazy Rich Asians grosses between $97.001 million and $103 million.
Vanilla and scoobydelite lose 3 points.

8% CHANCE
-Crazy Rich Asians grosses between $103.001 million and $119.999 million.
Vanilla, MGKC, and scoobydelite lose 3 points.

6% CHANCE
-Crazy Rich Asians grosses between $120 million and $126.99 million.
Chippy gains 3 points.
Vanilla, MGKC, and scoobydelite lose 3 points.

2% CHANCE
-Crazy Rich Asians grosses $127 million or more.
Biggestgeekever and Chippy gain 3 points.
Vanilla, MGKC, and scoobydelite lose 3 points.


TOTAL GROSS PREDICTIONS: The Equalizer 2

2% CHANCE
-The Equalizer 2 grosses $107.501 million or more.
Star Lord loses 3 points.


TOTAL GROSS PREDICTIONS: Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

10% CHANCE
-Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom grosses between $415 million and $424.5 million.
Biggestgeekever loses 3 points.


TOTAL GROSS PREDICTIONS: Mission: Impossible - Fallout

30% CHANCE
-Mission: Impossible - Fallout grosses between $200 million and $212.499 million.
Vanilla and SolC9 lose 3 points.

30% CHANCE
-Mission: Impossible - Fallout grosses between $219.5 million and $224.499 million.
Biggestgeekever gains 3 points.

10% CHANCE
-Mission: Impossible - Fallout grosses between $224.5 million and $229.999 million.
Biggestgeekever and Star Lord gain 3 points.

8% CHANCE
-Mission: Impossible - Fallout grosses between $224.5 million and $229.999 million.
Biggestgeekever and Star Lord gain 3 points.

2% CHANCE
-Mission: Impossible - Fallout grosses exactly $230 million.
Biggestgeekever, Star Lord, and Rev gain 3 points.

3% CHANCE
-Mission: Impossible - Fallout grosses between $230.001 million and $248.499 million.
Biggestgeekever, Star Lord, and Rev gain 3 points.
Chippy loses 3 points.


TOP 5 PREDICTIONS

60% CHANCE
-Mission: Impossible - Fallout passes Solo and Ant-Man and the Wasp's total gross to rank as the #5 movie of the summer.
Biggestgeekever and zwackerm lose 20 points. Vanilla, MGKC, and Star Lord lose 1 point.

40% CHANCE
-Ant-Man and the Wasp passes Solo's total gross to rank as the #5 movie of the summer. Mission: Impossible - Fallout doesn't pass Ant-Man and the Wasp's total gross.
Moviegeek151 gain 1 point.
Biggestgeekever and zwackerm lose 20 points. Vanilla, MGKC, and Star Lord lose 1 point.


BOX OFFICE QUESTION #3: Which 2 of the following films will gross closest to each other in total in dollars - Crazy Rich Asians, The Spy Who Dumped Me, Tag, or Uncle Drew?

100% CHANCE
The Spy Who Dumped Me gets closer to Uncle Drew in total gross, instead of Uncle Drew getting closest to Tag.
Biggestgeekever and Rev gain 2 points.
Moviegeek151 and Vanilla lose 2 points.


BOX OFFICE QUESTION #5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - Deadpool 2, The First Purge, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, The Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, or Sicario 2: Soldado?

95% CHANCE
-Mission: Impossible - Fallout passes $207.5 million. Hotel Transylvania 3 grosses between $158.75 million and $180.75 million, making its gross closer to Hotel Transylvania 2 than Sicario: Day of the Soldado was to Sicario.
Star Lord and scoobydelite gain 2 points.
Moviegeek151 loses 2 points.


BOX OFFICE QUESTION #7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend?

2% CHANCE
-Mile 22 loses more than 2,136 theaters in its 3rd weekend. (Box Office Question #7)
Star Lord gains 2 points.


BOX OFFICE QUESTION #8: How many films will gross over $100 million?

40% CHANCE
-The Meg is the final movie to pass $100 million. The Equalizer 2 and Crazy Rich Asians do not.
Zwackerm gain 2 points.
Star Lord, scoobydelite, and Rev lose 2 points.

40% CHANCE
-The Meg and The Equalizer 2 pass $100 million. Crazy Rich Asians does not.
MGKC and SolC9 gain 2 points.
Star Lord, scoobydelite, and Rev lose 2 points.

30% CHANCE
-The Meg, The Equalizer 2, and Crazy Rich Asians pass $100 million.
Chippy gains 2 points.
Star Lord, scoobydelite, and Rev lose 2 points.


BOX OFFICE QUESTION #9: How many films will gross over $200 million?

100% CHANCE
-Mission: Impossible - Fallout passes $200 million.
Biggestgeekever, moviegeek151, Vanilla, Star Lord, Rev, SolC9, and Chippy gain 2 points.
MGKC, zwackerm, and scoobydelite lose 2 points.


BOX OFFICE QUESTION #10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)?

2% CHANCE
-Alpha passes $31.4 million. No other movie that wasn't predicted passes $31.4 million.
Vanilla gains 2 points.


Sun Aug 19, 2018 7:23 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
RIP to SolC9, Price, David, Algren, nghtvsn, and Jack Sparrow. Crazy Rich Asians outgrossed their TOTAL predictions in its Opening Weekend.

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shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element

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Mon Aug 20, 2018 1:55 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
Predictions like 10 and 20 Million total were just nuts in the first place ;).


Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:43 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
Me and Jack Sparrow deserve a break. We're not US-based, and have a much harder time judging its popularity and the book's buzz. :P


Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:30 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
The Darkest Minds broke the record for the BIGGEST THEATER DROPS (-2,679) ever for wide releases in their third weekend. It is almost locked for Question #7.


Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:23 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
I think I chose that. If not, then it was on my shortlist.


Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:57 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
i.hope wrote:
The Darkest Minds broke the record for the BIGGEST THEATER DROPS (-2,679) ever for wide releases in their third weekend. It is almost locked for Question #7.

Good call - I missed that one.


Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:56 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
Magic Mike wrote:
Predictions like 10 and 20 Million total were just nuts in the first place ;).

I will completely admit I did not understand the film and its apparently enormous appeal. It seemed niche to me.

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Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:13 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
CRA could pass MI. That would be something.


Sat Aug 25, 2018 3:46 am
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
Well I'm definitely lose those CRA points and wind up near the bottom. By far my worst game ever, though I don't think my predictions were all that bad .. except for The Spy Who Dumped Me.


Sat Aug 25, 2018 12:52 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
*double post


Last edited by Flava'd vs The World on Sat Aug 25, 2018 2:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Sat Aug 25, 2018 12:52 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
I'll take those CRA points!

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shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element

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Sat Aug 25, 2018 1:41 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
So Mile 22 should be the answer to #10.


Sun Aug 26, 2018 3:17 am
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
Oh yay. I chose that.


Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:24 am
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
Magic Mike wrote:
So Mile 22 should be the answer to #10.

Nope, BlackKklansman will likely be.


Sun Aug 26, 2018 12:20 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
Lol @ the initial projection for CRA. Wish I did this one.


Sun Aug 26, 2018 12:39 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Summer Box Office Contest 2018 - Points Update Aug
MGKC wrote:
Magic Mike wrote:
So Mile 22 should be the answer to #10.

Nope, BlackKklansman will likely be.


Oh yep. Forgot about that.


Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:46 am
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