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 Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections 
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Extraordinary
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Post Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
Jumanji 21m 3 day/ 27m 4 day
The Post 6.25m Friday/19m 3 day/22.6m 4 day
Proud Mary 5m Friday/15m 3 day/18m 4 day
Paddington 2 3.3m Friday/12.5m 3 day/17m 4 day
The Greatest Showman- 3.2m Friday/11.2m 3 day/13.6m 4 day
The Commuter 3.8m Friday/11m 3 day/13m 4 day

http://deadline.com/2018/01/the-commute ... 202241724/

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Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:06 pm
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
Woh, Greatest Showman. We'll see how that number holds up - but that'd be pretty impressive.


Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:44 am
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Wallflower
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
I predicted a bit more for Showman. I think everything should go up.

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Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:24 am
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
Yes that TGS number is insane. Jumanji has overshadowed TGS's run but the later is even more impressive

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Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:37 am
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Wallflower
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
Well, I did predict 150 million for Showman in the Fall contest so I still think Jumanji is more impressive. Showman is doing amazing though.

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Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:54 am
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
It's the lower opening which makes it very impressive. Very few movies get to see these kind of legs. I expected $100m+ for it before it's release but went down to $80m after the OD.

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Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:04 am
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Cream of the Crop
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
BO predictions often forget the senior demographic.

tree and a half wrote:
Magic Mike wrote:
I know things will slow down considerably after Monday but could The Greatest Showman reach 100 Million? Audiences seem to be enjoying it. Has done quite well.

I predict it will do $100m DOM.

Senior citizens are going bananas for TGS - watch for bus groups to swell matinees well into the new year and give it great legs.


Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:13 am
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Wallflower
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
So much for higher than expected. Outside of Jumanji most others are down. Really disappointing number for Paddington 2 which is currently looking at under 15 for the 4-Day. Here's hoping for a really nice Saturday.

Proud Mary should have been able to do better over MLK weekend. Kind of an underwhelming holiday weekend unless things go up.

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Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:48 am
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
Why does MLK weekend suck so much for box office now, didn't it used to be a thing?


Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:02 am
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
At this rate, The Greatest Showman has a chance at #1 film of all time never in the top 3. Needs to get to American Hustle at 150 m.


Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:56 am
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The Kramer
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
Kind of sad for Paddington. The first is pretty popular so not sure why it landed so low. Hopefully the legs will be good and it can survive the similar, but more mean spirited, Peter Rabbit.


Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:07 am
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
Quote:
For the MLK weekend of Jan. 12-15, 2018, industry estimates:

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle(SONY), 3,849 theaters (+48) / $6M Fri (-44%)/3-day: $23.9M (-36%)/4-day: $30.8M/Total:$287M/ Wk 4
The Post (FOX/DW), 2,819 theaters (+2,783) / $6.1M Fri (+1130%) /3-day:$18M(+963%)/4-day: $21.5M/Total: $26M/Wk 4
Star Wars: The Last Jedi(DIS), 3,090 theaters (-1142)/ $2.9M Fri (-56%)/3-day: $11.5M (-51%)/4-day: $15.1M/Total:$595.4M/ Wk 5
The Commuter(LG), 2,892 theaters / $4.3M Fri/3-day: $12.3M /4-day: $14.7M/Wk 1
Paddington 2(WB), 3,702 theaters / $2.6M Fri/3-day: $10.8M /4-day: $14.2M/Wk 1
The Greatest Showman (FOX), 2,938 theaters (-404) / $3.1M Fri (-25%) / 3-day:$11.6M (-16%)/4-day: $14M/Total: $96.8M/Wk 4
Insidious: The Last Key(UNI), 3,150 theaters (+34)/ $3.1M (-75%) Fri/3-day: $10.5M (-64%)/4-day: $12.1M/Total: $48.3M/ Wk 2
8. Proud Mary(Sony), 2,125 theaters / $3.3M Fri/3-day: $9.8M /4-day: $11.4M/Wk 19. Pitch Perfect 3 (UNI), 2,505 theaters (-953)/ $1.4M Fri (-56%)/3-day: $5.3M(-48%)/4-day: $6.4M/Total: $95.4M/ Wk 4
10. Darkest Hour (FOC), 1,693 theaters (-40)/ $1.3M Fri (-27%) /3-day: $5M(-16%)/4-day:$6.1M Total: $37.4M/ Wk 8
11. Molly’s Game (STX) 1,708 theaters (+100)/$1.1M Fri (-52%)/3-day:$4.2M (-38%)/4-day: $5.2M/Total: $22M/ Wk 3
Notables:
I, Tonya (NEON/30), 517 theaters (+275) / $902K Fri (+17%)/3-day: $3M (+22%)/4-day: $3.5M/Total: $10.3M/Wk 6

The Shape of Water (FSL), 723 theaters (-81) / $633K Fri (-25%) /3-day: $2.3M (-25%)/4-day: $2.9M/Total: $26.5M/Wk 7

Three Billboards… (FSL), 1,022 theaters (+712) / $631K Fri (+240%) /3-day: $2.2M (+225%)/4-day: $2.7M/Total: $29M/Wk 10

Phantom Thread (FOC), 62 theaters (+56) / $270K Fri (+300%)/3-day: $877K (+265%)/PTA: $14K/4-day: $1M/Total: $2.1M/Wk 3

Link - http://deadline.com/2018/01/the-commute ... 202241724/


Pretty shitty for everything outside Jumanji and TGS IMO.


Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:20 am
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
The Last Jedi still dropped 50%? FFS.


Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:27 am
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
Jumanji looks like only the fourth movie opening under $50 m to see 4 consecutive weekends of $20 m+. Titanic, The Sixth Sense and Elf are the other three.


Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:41 am
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Cream of the Crop

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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
Thanks for the reliable data!

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=elf.htm


Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:07 am
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
Samweis Gamdschie wrote:

Fake News :P

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Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:07 am
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
Um, what happened with Paddington? Nobody saw the reviews or enjoyed the first? Maybe the weather was to blame last night.


Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:42 am
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
The Last Jedi still dropped 50%? FFS.


Not surprised. Disney had a very strict 4 week contract. Now that it's over, theater managers are giving the bigger screens to other movies. IMAX apparently agreed to let theater owners give Jumanji an IMAX run. Very surprised by that one, but I guess IMAX realized there have been a bunch of empty shows for TLJ in the last couple weeks while Jumanji took over as the biggest movie.

EDIT: Official estimate from Disney is $2.72m, which is 83.4% of Rogue One's $3.26m Friday gross. If this continues the rest of the way, Last Jedi will finish at $619.5 million. Not sure it will even go that high. It is losing ground to Rogue One's daily gross pretty much the entire run, so 83% is not locked to happen the rest of the way. A finish below Avengers' $623.36m seems very possible now. Needs 92% of Rogue One's daily gross the rest of the way to match Avengers.


Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:15 am
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
I feel TLJ will eventually sneak past Avengers but it won't be by much.

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Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:11 pm
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
1 1 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony $6,125,000 +188% -43% 3,849 $1,591 $262,260,909 24
2 - The Post Fox $5,900,000 +3,993% +1,088% 2,819 $2,093 $10,389,237 22
3 - The Commuter LGF $4,560,000 - - 2,892 $1,577 $4,560,000 1
4 3 Insidious: The Last Key Uni. $3,424,000 +161% -73% 3,150 $1,087 $39,665,140 8
5 - Proud Mary SGem $3,175,000 - - 2,125 $1,494 $3,175,000 1
6 4 The Greatest Showman Fox $3,050,000 +137% -27% 2,938 $1,038 $85,803,868 24
7 2 Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV $2,723,000 +62% -58% 3,090 $881 $582,997,584 29
8 - Paddington 2 WB $2,400,000 - - 3,702 $648 $2,400,000 1
9 6 Pitch Perfect 3 Uni. $1,433,000 +128% -57% 2,505 $572 $90,432,225 22
10 5 Darkest Hour Focus $1,245,000 +67% -32% 1,693 $735 $32,460,552 52
11 7 Molly's Game STX $1,080,000 +86% -53% 1,708 $632 $17,910,167 19
12 11 I, Tonya Neon $956,000 +212% +24% 517 $1,849 $7,654,816 36

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/char ... -12&p=.htm

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Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:12 pm
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
Damn that's bad for Paddington.

Also poor for TLJ. It won't catch up with RO anymore.
Most estimates went down...ugh

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Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:15 pm
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
Jumanji has a chance at $350M and it will be #1 again next weekend.

Go TGS!!! $125M total is not out of reach. With the next couple of weeks looking weak (pun intended) until Black Panther, expect some awesome holds.


Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:32 pm
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Team Kris
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
TGS box office run has been remarkable. This has the strongest WOM of any movie in quite some time. With a few Oscar Noms this could go to 150 which would be insane to think after its opening weekend.

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Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:13 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
Paddington 2 bombing is why we can't have nice things. :(

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Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:37 pm
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Post Re: Early Friday Numbers/Weekend Projections
Paddington 2 bombing was kind of expected. Aside from the inexplicable success of Alvin and the Chipmunks, most family sequels with CGI critters decrease a lot. Garfield 2, Scooby Doo 2, Stuart Little 2 come to mind.

Looks like another nasty drop for Star Wars. I reiterate that audiences do not like it and it's going to affect Episode IX now that
Spoiler: show
the original cast are out of the picture so soon thanks to the brilliance of Kathleen Kennedy and the writers room she assembled.

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Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:44 pm
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