Not a good look for Biden.

Especially if he dips below 15%, missing out on any delegates, when the remaining 38% comes in.

This is setting up an interesting Super Tuesday. If Biden gets fourth place in NH (likely) and NV, and fails to win SC by a large margin (or at all!), he's going to have little to no campaign funds left going into Super Tuesday. Bloomberg could potentially sneak in and steal Biden's spot as he's rising in the Super Tuesday polls due to an unprecedented spending campaign.

Biden’s get out to vote appeal can’t be worse. He’s mainly appealing to old people and people where he’s the only name they recognize. The old people don’t want to leave their house, and the people not paying much attention probably won’t care about voting either.

None of the Dems are inspiring much enthusiasm. Bernie's is extremely misleading because of the amount of negative energy he inspires to moderates and beyond, something none of the others do. Biden clearly affected big time by PB.

"Woke" "purist" Democrats will have to get over it if the nominee ends up being JB, PB, or even MB.

Symone Sanders, Senior Adviser to the Biden Campaign, is awful. Why would he hire her? She just does her best at yelling over anyone (IF I MAY! IF I MAY! LET ME FINISH!) who questions her on, well, practically anything. She worked for Sanders in 2016 and fiercely promoted his platform (primarily Health Care), but she's now arguing fiercely against it.

Not to mention her reported terrible attitude and behavior at airports with TSA agents.

Biden has yet to pull the strongest mic drop he has vs Bernie and Im wondering if it is about to come out. All he has to say

"Bernie, you can talk all you want about your impossible fantasy plans and how you think some of us got it wrong in the past, but you have your own history too. For all the tar about how terrible Donald Trump has been and all of the problems we want to solve, lets not pretend that the actions - or inactions in some areas - of yourself, your campaign, and some of your supporters in 2016 are the reason he is in office in the first place. Bernie, you and Elizabeth will need the moderate wing of our party to beat Donald Trump in the general election, and myself and others have vowed to do all we can help make this happen should you win the nomination. It's a shame because had you done all that you could have done in 2016, none of us may be on this stage tonight, none of the issues that have arisen would Trump would have happened, and instead we would be supporting Hillary in her reelection efforts. But you didn't do all that you could. You held out for the nomination long after it was clear you weren't going to win. You and your campaign pushed nonsensical theories about her that many of your supporters came to actually believe and that Donald Trump seized and used against her with success. And on Election Day, a lot of those supporters stayed home, or voted for Jill Stein, or maybe even Trump himself. If we're going to talk about things we could have done differently in the past, lets not forget that one"




Biden has lead in Nevada since the day he entered the race; a 4th place finish seems impossible. A Bernie win in Nevada would really make its a race between him and JB, but the most likely scenario is still Biden winning both Nevada and South Carolina followed by a big Super Tuesday.

Biden RIGHT NOW should really be bypassing NH and focusing on pulling out very possible wins in Nevada in SC.

Biden was screwed in Iowa with Pete and Amy over performing so much, if that trend continues than he is in big trouble. However, this seems unlikely.

That said, Pete owning the moderate wing of the party and getting the nomination may be what's best in the long run.

538 has Bernie the favorite to win all of the Super Tuesday states.

I saw the debate last night. Amy and Bernie impressed me the most.

I liked Bernie calling out Trump's mob-like intimidation tactics and lawlessness. It would help his appeal to non-progressives. Let's see if his campaign and supporters would amplify this message on the social media.

Amy was eloquent and mild-mannered. She managed to criticize others without making it personal and grudgy. That's some persuasive power.

Warren was good at giving short answers. If she could give more specifics on her anti-corruption message and hone in on the details on one or two particular examples, that would inspire more after-debate conversation about her candidacy.

Tom Steyer was a good commentator. I appreciated him at times helping steer the conversation in the right direction except for his jab at Biden on race.

Biden appeared confident and stable yesterday.

Pete was intentionally moderate and vague on many issues. That would give him flexibility in the general. I am not sure if it was a good strategy or not at the moment.

Yang spoke too little. He had some good points when he responded to others. But he lacked spontaneity and his focus was too narrow to appeal to the general public.

Gabbard has spent almost all of her time campaigning in New Hampshire, so today feels like her last stand. If she could upset in one of the districts and earn a delegate, she makes the debate next week and gets one more shot at a national audience, but this time with fewer people on stage. If she doesn't earn a delegate, which is the much more likely scenario, I'd consider her done. I hope she does well.

Definitely seems like it is Bernie’s to lose now. AOC campaigning for him has been huge.

Yang and Bennet have dropped out tonight, so far.

Bernie looks to win New Hampshire, but probably by no more than 4%, so not a convincing victory in a state he should have done a little better in.

Strong night for Buttigieg and Klobuchar, especially the latter (strong debate performances still matter). Let's see if they can take their impressive IO and NH performances and deliver in the more diverse contests to come now.

I have a feeling Warren might not last until Super Tuesday. Very, very tough night, possibly failing to even earn 10%. Bernie has taken her progressive support, while Klobuchar has taken her female support. I doubt she'll drop out tonight, but if she gets fourth place or worse in Nevada and South Carolina, that's it.

Biden is doing equally as bad, but he'll do better in South Carolina (although I'm doubting his chances of winning) and probably stick it out through Super Tuesday.

Interestingly, the NH electorate skewed more moderate this election cycle. And if you take the current votes, the Buttigieg and Klobuchar voters (moderates/older) outnumbered the Sanders/Warren (liberals/younger) voters. And pretty convincing so if you add Biden into the mix.

NH Primary Results - Total of 41.75% reporting

Sanders: 26.64%
Buttigieg: 22.39%
Klobuchar: 21.41%
Warren: 9.53%
Biden: 8.31%
Steyer: 3.41%
Gabbard: 3.13%
Yang: 2.81%

Total votes cast so far: 122,172

We can deduce from that the turnout in New Hampshire is 292,628, that's up 15.6% from 2016 NH Democratic Primary.

2016 R - 285,916
2016 D - 253,062
2012 R - 248,475
2008 D - 287,527
2008 R - 234,851
2004 D - 219,787
2000 R - 238,206
2000 D - 154,639

If this number sticks, this is the largest turnout (in votes) in recent NH presidential primaries.

So close to 50 % reporting, Yang and Bennet have dropped out, Gabbard and Steyer should. Warren and Biden big losers, but Biden will bounce back some with more diverse states upcoming. Bernie, Pete, and Amy are the top 3 respctively. All have limited support beyond white voters though. I'd say big winner is Amy, coming in a very solid 3rd with high teen % of the vote. I expect a target on her back at next weeks debate.

70% reported, and Buttigieg is closing in on Sanders, trailing just 2.0%. And that's with Klobuchar back at 20% again. Most of the larger counties are also largely in, so the smaller rural areas still outstanding could give Pete another win.

Even if Sanders comes out on top, this isn't a good look for him, narrowly winning a state with not one, but two moderates right behind him.

Bernie's support among Latinos is pretty solid, according to polls. He has good numbers among blacks too. It's the generational divide that could be problems for him. He is not very well liked among old voters (60+).

Surprising results. Buttigieg better than expected but where the fuck did Klobuchar come from?

Maybe she campaigned hard in NH? And she had a very good debate performance last week.

83.5% reporting, 256,741 total votes:

Bernie Sanders 66,190 25.78%
Pete Buttigieg 62,004 24.15%
Amy Klobuchar 51,200 19.94%
Elizabeth Warren 24,021 9.36%
Joe Biden 22,335 8.70%
Tom Steyer 9,061 3.53%
Tulsi Gabbard 8,290 3.23%
Andrew Yang 7,317 2.85%
Other 4,381 1.71%
Deval Patrick 1,081 0.42%
Michael Bennet 861 0.34%

https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/2020/primary/new_hampshire/president

Moderates failure to coalesce around 1 candidate could result in Bernie and another 4 years of DT. 

The candidate with the most votes by the time the convention rolls around will be awarded the nomination, there is no doubt about that.

Yea if Bernie isn’t the nominee after getting the most delegates, it’s complete suicide in the general to not pick him, you can’t come back PR wise from that. Plus high chance of Bernie running 3rd party and splitting the votes and Bernie’s party possibly finishing 2nd. Now there is a 3 party system with AOC and Bernie in one party like Canadian NDP and Biden and Klobuchar in another like Canadian Liberal. The long term ramifications are severe.

Then again if the Democrats would rather have Trump as president than Bernie, maybe it’s worth it to them to strap on the suicide vest. Establishment Democrats and Republicans are really two hands on the same person, and Trump just ended up being bad in a typical way and a swamp rat in sheep’s clothing once you get past all the showmanship. Bernie however, would scare the shit out of some people.

It looks like the final total will surpass 300,000. Historic high turnout?

2016 R - 285,916
2016 D - 253,062
2012 R - 248,475
2008 D - 287,527
2008 R - 234,851
2004 D - 219,787
2000 R - 238,206
2000 D - 154,639

I know the “black voters of South Carolina” are supposed to save Biden, but how can anyone look at these first two contests and still see him as the next President?

Biden is toast. It's Bernie. As much as I want Warren.