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 U.S. Current Account Deficit Sets Record... 
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Krem wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Which country is the number one target for foreign investment?


For how long?

That's not the point. You did know that foreign investment counts against current account, right?


So? In what way does it make up for the account deficit? The thing is that the foreign investments will become less, but the account deficit doesn't seem to lower.

How will the balance of payments stay balanced then?


When?

Always. Balance of Payment has to stay balanced, hence the name.


That I know, I am just not getting the context.

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Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:22 am
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Krem wrote:

The unemployment rate is 5.4%; the inflation rate is less than 4%; the interest rates are at 2.25% and steadily rising (for comparison, they were higher than 6% in the late 90's, during the economic boom). Not exactly causes for concern, and neither are the underlying trends.

The alternative to Keynes is laissez faire - you let the people decide what's best for them, and the government takes a backseat approach to the economy. For instance, if you notice, in the U.S. there are virtually no corporations run by the government (with the infamous exception of Amtrak, that money-sucking monopoly).


Giving the people an absolute freedom without any government control is risky and there is no guarantee that it will work. There are too many factors nowadays that prevent people from consuming.

Krem wrote:
Nevermind the fact that it failed miserably in the 1930's and the 1970's?

Keynesian economics assumes that the government is inherently more effective than the private sector is. It is false.

On top of that, it assumes that the government has the right to help itself to your money. Not only is this wrong, it is also amoral.


Tell me a startegy that hasn't ever failed yet?
It is false? I do beg to disagree here. The government is more effective because of the lack of predictability of the private sector.

If you think it's amoral, why not abolish taxes whatsoever?

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Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:27 am
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Dr. Lecter wrote:

Well, at least Germany is the country with the best social network in the world. Oh and are also telling me that welfare doesn't exist in the USA or what?

So your whole argument hinges on the fact that the U.S. has to have the best social network in the world? Why is that? Personally, I could care less about social networks. I feel they're a waste of money.
If I want to sponsor somebody's education or health insurance, then I will do it on my own; I don't need the government telling me how to do it.

And yes, there is a Welafer system in the U.S. But it's nowhere near as wasteful as the welfare system set up in Germany, where all your expenses are covered, and you don't have to bother finding a job.
Dr. Lecter wrote:
As for the taxes cut, it went down from 53% and as for the VAT, you have that too in the USA 8even though it's smaller, I believe). The government needs money for the Social Security, Health Insurances and the educational improvement. These are the biggest money-suckers over here at the moment. The government can't allow itself to cut more taxes and trust me, the day will come that the taxes in the USA will rise dramatically.
(well, unless, there is another country conquered with lots of oil ;) )

That day already came and passed. Top rate used be hovering around 90%. Then the rates came down, most recently they were cut to 35%.

Even that is too much, if you ask me, but first the government needs to cut its spending.

There's no VAT in the U.S.; a lot of states have a sales tax, which is different in nature, and even then, not all states have it.
Dr. Lecter wrote:
I didn't say that you should do anything with the dollar itself. I was just stating that the current development of the dollar IS an unfortunate one for the USA.


Again, based on what criteria? Yes, we import more than we export, but in turn, we get more capital coming in here.


Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:30 am
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Always. Balance of Payment has to stay balanced, hence the name.


That I know, I am just not getting the context.

Well, if the balance of payments is balanced, then it's only natural that the current account deficit is offset by the capital inflow into the U.S.


Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:33 am
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Krem wrote:
Again, based on what criteria? Yes, we import more than we export, but in turn, we get more capital coming in here.


This is where the problem is. You import more than you export, therefore you have the deficit. You also attract foreign investors that make up for the deficit. However, in future the number of foreign ivestments in the USA will go down, the account deficit however, doesn't seem to lower now or in future. Sooner or later there won't be enough foreign investors. Do you expect the account deficit to disappear automatically then?

The rest, I'll address when I'm back from a movie ;)

No, not a German scheisse film :lol:

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Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:34 am
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:

The unemployment rate is 5.4%; the inflation rate is less than 4%; the interest rates are at 2.25% and steadily rising (for comparison, they were higher than 6% in the late 90's, during the economic boom). Not exactly causes for concern, and neither are the underlying trends.

The alternative to Keynes is laissez faire - you let the people decide what's best for them, and the government takes a backseat approach to the economy. For instance, if you notice, in the U.S. there are virtually no corporations run by the government (with the infamous exception of Amtrak, that money-sucking monopoly).


Giving the people an absolute freedom without any government control is risky and there is no guarantee that it will work. There are too many factors nowadays that prevent people from consuming.

Instead, we should rely on someone really smart (preferrably you), sitting in the government office in DC (or in Berlin) to make the decisions for us. That oughta cure all the problems.
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Nevermind the fact that it failed miserably in the 1930's and the 1970's?

Keynesian economics assumes that the government is inherently more effective than the private sector is. It is false.

On top of that, it assumes that the government has the right to help itself to your money. Not only is this wrong, it is also amoral.


Tell me a startegy that hasn't ever failed yet?

Tell me what your stated goals are.

Dr. Lecter wrote:
It is false? I do beg to disagree here. The government is more effective because of the lack of predictability of the private sector.

You can't be serious. Tell me, is there a problem with the computer sector in Germany? Clothing? Paper industry? Plastics? Rastaurant and hotel? Tourism?

I suspect not.

What about social services? Education? Phone industry? Transportation? No problems there? I suspect a bit of a different answer.

Notice the pattern?
Dr. Lecter wrote:
If you think it's amoral, why not abolish taxes whatsoever?


It is ammoral to use taxes to try and pump money from one group of people to another; however the government has legitimate goals, such as defense and punishment for the crimes. It has to be financed somehow. So some taxes and levies are not amoral, but the more the government taxes its citizens, the more wasteful it becomes.


Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:41 am
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Again, based on what criteria? Yes, we import more than we export, but in turn, we get more capital coming in here.


This is where the problem is. You import more than you export, therefore you have the deficit. You also attract foreign investors that make up for the deficit. However, in future the number of foreign ivestments in the USA will go down, the account deficit however, doesn't seem to lower now or in future. Sooner or later there won't be enough foreign investors. Do you expect the account deficit to disappear automatically then?

If there's nobody sponsoring the deficit, then there can't be a deficit. Econ 101.


Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:43 am
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Krem wrote:

You can't be serious. Tell me, is there a problem with the computer sector in Germany? Clothing? Paper industry? Plastics? Rastaurant and hotel? Tourism?

I suspect not.

What about social services? Education? Phone industry? Transportation? No problems there? I suspect a bit of a different answer.

Notice the pattern?


Is there a problem with clothing? Computer sector etc.? Yes, there is one. They all moved out of Germany. Welcome in the United Europe with the Euro taking care of the transparency.

Tourism? With the increased Euro the number of tourists ceases to lower.

Phone industry? It's by far no longer government controlled here. Transportation? It is losing money, sure, but what country's transportation doesn't? People have cars in plenty. Living in the USA, you should know that.

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Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:49 am
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Krem wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Again, based on what criteria? Yes, we import more than we export, but in turn, we get more capital coming in here.


This is where the problem is. You import more than you export, therefore you have the deficit. You also attract foreign investors that make up for the deficit. However, in future the number of foreign ivestments in the USA will go down, the account deficit however, doesn't seem to lower now or in future. Sooner or later there won't be enough foreign investors. Do you expect the account deficit to disappear automatically then?

If there's nobody sponsoring the deficit, then there can't be a deficit. Econ 101.


I don't think you understand. The way you present it, is that an account deficit is a good thing. There is a difference between buying a ton of Italian oranges and Italian companies coming to the USA and investing money in there.

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Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:50 am
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Krem wrote:
Nevermind the fact that it failed miserably in the 1930's and the 1970's?
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Tell me what your stated goals are.


My goals are the four I stated above. If I knew a way how to accomplish tgem all without negative side effects, I would have won the Nobel and become Germany's new secretary of finances. There is no way how to solve all the problems. There will never be one, you just need to decide for a better strategy because there is no perfect one.

I suppose if you knew the solution for all the problems you'd be in the government as well :)

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Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:53 am
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:

You can't be serious. Tell me, is there a problem with the computer sector in Germany? Clothing? Paper industry? Plastics? Rastaurant and hotel? Tourism?

I suspect not.


What about social services? Education? Phone industry? Transportation? No problems there? I suspect a bit of a different answer.

Notice the pattern?


Is there a problem with clothing? Computer sector etc.? Yes, there is one. They all moved out of Germany. Welcome in the United Europe with the Euro taking care of the transparency.

Tourism? With the increased Euro the number of tourists ceases to lower.[/quote]

These are not problems, these are realities of the laws of economics. These companies are making money becuase that's their goal.

Are you willing to spend your hard-earned money to keep the companies in Germany?
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Phone industry? It's by far no longer government controlled here. Transportation? It is losing money, sure, but what country's transportation doesn't? People have cars in plenty. Living in the USA, you should know that.


In other words all the government-run industry is doing as well as the private sector. You seriously believe that?


Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:55 am
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Krem wrote:
Are you willing to spend your hard-earned money to keep the companies in Germany?


IF I planned on living in Germany for the rest of my life, then YES. I do not only think of myself right here, right now. The unemployment rate caused by companies moving out and the smaller GDP will get back at me anyway. Therefore, I'd spend my hard.earned money to the benefit of the state.



Krem wrote:

In other words all the government-run industry is doing as well as the private sector. You seriously believe that?


I do. Both do equally bad.

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Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:01 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:

My goals are the four I stated above. If I knew a way how to accomplish tgem all without negative side effects, I would have won the Nobel and become Germany's new secretary of finances. There is no way how to solve all the problems. There will never be one, you just need to decide for a better strategy because there is no perfect one.


At least two of the goals you put forth I do not agree with (account balance and full employment).

There is no reason to try and balance the current (I assume that's what you meant by account balance) account artificially; if foreign countries are selling us products cheaper than we can make them, then absolutely we should be running a current account deficit.

As for full employment - I do not believe in the right to work. A person's skills have to be demanded, otherwise employing him/her makes absolutely no sense.

I'm also not sure what you mean by "price stability". The prices are always going up; if they're not, its' pretty bad for the economy - just take a look at Japan.
Dr. Lecter wrote:
I suppose if you knew the solution for all the problems you'd be in the government as well :)


If I wanted to be in the government, I'd already be a public servant.


Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:02 pm
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Krem wrote:

So your whole argument hinges on the fact that the U.S. has to have the best social network in the world? Why is that? Personally, I could care less about social networks. I feel they're a waste of money.
If I want to sponsor somebody's education or health insurance, then I will do it on my own; I don't need the government telling me how to do it.

And yes, there is a Welafer system in the U.S. But it's nowhere near as wasteful as the welfare system set up in Germany, where all your expenses are covered, and you don't have to bother finding a job.



I doesn't HAVE to have the best social network in the world. The USA just proves the general selfishness of people and the fact that only the strongest survive.

If not the expenses, what else is a welfare system supposed to cover?

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Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:05 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Are you willing to spend your hard-earned money to keep the companies in Germany?


IF I planned on living in Germany for the rest of my life, then YES. I do not only think of myself right here, right now. The unemployment rate caused by companies moving out and the smaller GDP will get back at me anyway. Therefore, I'd spend my hard.earned money to the benefit of the state.

You always like to point the finger at the U.S., well here's your other chance: in the U.S. the outsourcing is pretty much unlimited and has been for a long time now, but the unemployment rate is half that of Germany, where it's very hard to let workers go. What gives?

Could it be that when you outsource you make more profit to be reinvested?

Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:

In other words all the government-run industry is doing as well as the private sector. You seriously believe that?


I do. Both do equally bad.

By what criteria? The private sector has one and only goal: make money. Are you suggesting that it's failing in that task?


Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:07 pm
Post 
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:

So your whole argument hinges on the fact that the U.S. has to have the best social network in the world? Why is that? Personally, I could care less about social networks. I feel they're a waste of money.
If I want to sponsor somebody's education or health insurance, then I will do it on my own; I don't need the government telling me how to do it.

And yes, there is a Welafer system in the U.S. But it's nowhere near as wasteful as the welfare system set up in Germany, where all your expenses are covered, and you don't have to bother finding a job.



I doesn't HAVE to have the best social network in the world. The USA just proves the general selfishness of people and the fact that only the strongest survive.

You're saying it as if being selfish is bad :lol:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
If not the expenses, what else is a welfare system supposed to cover?

Well, the system in the U.S. covers some of your expenses, but for a limited amount of time. You HAVE to find yourself a job.

Mind you, I do not agree witht hat system either.


Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:09 pm
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Krem wrote:
You always like to point the finger at the U.S., well here's your other chance: in the U.S. the outsourcing is pretty much unlimited and has been for a long time now, but the unemployment rate is half that of Germany, where it's very hard to let workers go. What gives?

Could it be that when you outsource you make more profit to be reinvested?


Reinvested by...whom?


Krem wrote:

In other words all the government-run industry is doing as well as the private sector. You seriously believe that?


I do. Both do equally bad.[/quote]
By what criteria? The private sector has one and only goal: make money. Are you suggesting that it's failing in that task?[/quote]

1. They moved out of Germany

2. Those that didn't, tend to, indeed, fail. You should see thousands of people being fired nowadays in Germany by companies like Siemens.

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Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:17 pm
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Krem wrote:
There is no reason to try and balance the current (I assume that's what you meant by account balance) account artificially; if foreign countries are selling us products cheaper than we can make them, then absolutely we should be running a current account deficit.

As for full employment - I do not believe in the right to work. A person's skills have to be demanded, otherwise employing him/her makes absolutely no sense.

I'm also not sure what you mean by "price stability". The prices are always going up; if they're not, its' pretty bad for the economy - just take a look at Japan.


I mean the magical quadrangle, which shows the rate of fulfilment of four traditional targets of economic policy. Rings a bell?

"As for full employment - I do not believe in the right to work. A person's skills have to be demanded, otherwise employing him/her makes absolutely no sense."

So what do you think shall a person do whose skilles are not as demanded considering that you are against welfare...? :?

Krem wrote:



If I wanted to be in the government, I'd already be a public servant.


You suggest that if you were in charge here, our economy would be doing better? :lol:

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Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:22 pm
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Krem wrote:
You're saying it as if being selfish is bad :lol:


Oh, I forgot, let's just have the unemployed people starve to death. Why care if you are doing great anyway?

Krem wrote:
Well, the system in the U.S. covers some of your expenses, but for a limited amount of time. You HAVE to find yourself a job.

Mind you, I do not agree witht hat system either.


Looks like you're not up to date with German system either. You HAVE to find yourself a job in a limited amount of time as well.

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Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:25 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
You always like to point the finger at the U.S., well here's your other chance: in the U.S. the outsourcing is pretty much unlimited and has been for a long time now, but the unemployment rate is half that of Germany, where it's very hard to let workers go. What gives?

Could it be that when you outsource you make more profit to be reinvested?


Reinvested by...whom?

By those same companies that outsourced. It's quite simple: if I can save $50 million by moving my manufacturing plant to Mexico, then I can spend that $50 million to fund more R&D, marketing, planning, etc. In each scenario, I end up making even more money.


Krem wrote:

In other words all the government-run industry is doing as well as the private sector. You seriously believe that?


I do. Both do equally bad.[/quote]
By what criteria? The private sector has one and only goal: make money. Are you suggesting that it's failing in that task?[/quote]

1. They moved out of Germany

2. Those that didn't, tend to, indeed, fail. You should see thousands of people being fired nowadays in Germany by companies like Siemens.[/quote]
1. Does a company have to stay in Germany to be successful?

2. Do you think it has anything to do with the very restrictive laws concerning employment in Germany?


Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:27 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:

I mean the magical quadrangle, which shows the rate of fulfilment of four traditional targets of economic policy. Rings a bell?

Who says I agree with the "traditional targets of economic policy"?
Dr. Lecter wrote:
"As for full employment - I do not believe in the right to work. A person's skills have to be demanded, otherwise employing him/her makes absolutely no sense."

So what do you think shall a person do whose skilles are not as demanded considering that you are against welfare...? :?

They should learn new skills.


Dr. Lecter wrote:
[/quote="Krem"]
If I wanted to be in the government, I'd already be a public servant.


You suggest that if you were in charge here, our economy would be doing better? :lol:[/quote]
I suggest that I don't want to be in charge there. But if Germany adopted a more open approach to the economy, then yes, it would be doing better.


Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:30 pm
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Krem wrote:
By those same companies that outsourced. It's quite simple: if I can save $50 million by moving my manufacturing plant to Mexico, then I can spend that $50 million to fund more R&D, marketing, planning, etc. In each scenario, I end up making even more money.


And who says that the earned/saved money will be reinvested in Germany and benefit Germany in any way?


Krem wrote:


1. Does a company have to stay in Germany to be successful?

2. Do you think it has anything to do with the very restrictive laws concerning employment in Germany?


1. No, it doesn't, but I am talking about companies IN Germany right now and not in Poland.

2. What the heck yre you talking about? What restrictive laws?

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Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:31 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
You're saying it as if being selfish is bad :lol:


Oh, I forgot, let's just have the unemployed people starve to death. Why care if you are doing great anyway?

You feel passinate about the unemployed people? Good. Spend your own money to help them. WHy do you insist that others should have the same moral values as you do?
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Well, the system in the U.S. covers some of your expenses, but for a limited amount of time. You HAVE to find yourself a job.

Mind you, I do not agree witht hat system either.


Looks like you're not up to date with German system either. You HAVE to find yourself a job in a limited amount of time as well.

I guess they reformed it a little. Good for them.

Now, what was the need for the reform? I doubt it was because the old system was working out well.


Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:33 pm
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Krem wrote:

Who says I agree with the "traditional targets of economic policy"?


That, I noticed by now. Maybe you should write a book on your strategies. By some chance it'll be as widely recognized and popular as Keynes'. Maybe you can revolutionize and revive the economy slump in which about 85% of countries in the world are right now and win the Nobel.

Krem wrote:
They should learn new skills.


Freedom of choice is great, eh? :? :?


Krem wrote:
I suggest that I don't want to be in charge there. But if Germany adopted a more open approach to the economy, then yes, it would be doing better.


If it was as easy and logical as you make it seem, it would have been done.

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Last edited by Dr. Lecter on Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:35 pm
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Krem wrote:

Who says I agree with the "traditional targets of economic policy"?


That, I noticed by now. Maybe you should write a book on your strategies. By some chance it'll be as widely recognized and popular as Keynes'. Maybe you can revolutionize and revive the economy slump in which about 85% of countries in the world are right now and win the Nobel.

Krem wrote:
They should learn new skills.


Freedom of choice is great, eh? :? :?


[/quote="Krem"]
I suggest that I don't want to be in charge there. But if Germany adopted a more open approach to the economy, then yes, it would be doing better.[/quote]

If it was as easy and logical as you make it seem, it would have been done.

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