EDIT: I am adding in the actual nominees aganist my predicted nominees, along with brief thoughts for each category.
Tomorrow morning, the Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced for 2012. It wouldn't be fun if I didn't at least take a stab at a few nominees I believe will and won't show up on the ballots. I embarrassed myself for the Golden Globes, so what's the worst that can happen?
***New Girls Will Trump The Old Ones for Lead Actress - Comedy***
Of last year's nominees for Best Actress in a Comedy, I am predicting only two will return this year: Amy Poehler and Edie Falco. Martha Plimpton, Laura Linney and last year's victor Melissa McCarthy will be left off to make way for four new nominees. The only one I'm not completely sold on is Tina Fey. Everyone loves Tina, but 30 Rock is aging fast and the lustre is vanishing. It wouldn't shock me if she was nominated, but it'll shock me less if she's snubbed for the first time.
This time last year, I would've bet it all that Zooey Deschanel would not only be nominated but win for New Girl. I am much less certain of that today, but I can't imagine she'll miss the nomination. Also showing up will be Girls' Lena Dunham, Veep's Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Enlightened's Laura Dern.
The only remaining longshots would be 2 Broke Girls' Kat Dennings and Beth Behrs, especially Behrs. She stole the show all season long, but it might be one of those shows critics will ignore.
And the predicted nominees are...
Amy Poehler, Parks & Recreation
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Lena Dunham, Girls
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Laura Dern, Enlightened
ACTUAL NOMINEES
Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Lena Dunham, Girls
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
Amy Poehler, Parks & Recreation
Number of Correct Predictions: 5/6 (didn't foresee seven nominees)
Brief Thoughts: Mostly expected, although I did not expect Laura Dern to miss out over Melissa McCarthy and Tina Fey. Lesson learned: never bet against Fey.
***Same Ol', same Ol' for Lead Actor - Comedy***
As different as Lead Actress will be this year, Lead Actor will be more of the same from 2011. Multi-time winners Jim Parsons and Alec Baldwin will be re-joined by Louis C.K., Johnny Galecki and Larry David.
But who will take the sixth slot?
Last year, Matt LeBlanc and Steve Carell were nominated for Episodes and The Office, respectively, with neither of which being nominated this year (Episodes didn't air this year). Don Cheadle might take the sixth slot for House of Lies. I believe Jon Cryer is eligible for Lead Actor in the wake of Charlie Sheen's departure, which is possible. If I had to guess, Cheadle will sneak in.
And the nominees are...
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Louis C.K., Louie
Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
ACTUAL NOMINEES
Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Louis C.K., Louie
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Number of Correct Predictions: 5/6
Brief Thoughts: Yeah, my Jon Cryer concerns were correct. Otherwise, same ol', same ol'.
***The MFers Continue to Dominate Supporting***
If there is one guarantee for Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy, it's that Modern Family will occupy at least 50% of the slots available. Winners Ty Burrell and Eric Stonestreet are locks, while I would give the edge to Jesse Tyler Ferguson over Ed O'Neill to be nominated for a third time to O'Neill's second. Can both make it?
Nick Offerman has been overlooked too many times. If this isn't his year to be nominated, especially while presenting the awards, it'll never happen. Also in the running: Neil Patrick Harris, in his winless How I Met Your Mother role, Chris Colfer (unlikely, given Glee's freefall from grace) and Max Greenfield for New Girl. Other outside shots are too far-fetched, but it would be nice to imagine a world where Happy Endings' Damon Wayans Jr. or Adam Pally would be recognized. Sigh...
And the nominees are...
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
Nick Offerman, Parks & Recreation
Max Greenfield, New Girl
ACTUAL NOMINEES
Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Max Greenfield, New Girl
Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Number of Correct Predictions: 5/6
Brief Thoughts: Great for Max Greenfield. Routinely steals the show on New Girl. Too bad for Nick Offerman, but a deserved and late nomination for Bill Hader.
***Last Chance for Kristen Wiig in Supporting Actress***
Three locks are in place for Supporting Actress in a Comedy: Julie Bowen and Sofia Vergara for Modern Family, and Kristen Wiig for her final season on Saturday Night Live. This might be the most wide open race on the TV series ballot. Kathryn Joosten is eligible for a posthumous nod for Desperate Housewives. The Betty White bandwagon will likely chug along with her second consecutive nod for Hot in Cleveland, a passable if mediocre final regular role for the legendary actress.
The remaining possibilities include 30 Rock's Jane Krakowski, Happy Endings' Casey Wilson (unlikely), Enlightened's Diane Ladd and my pick for the final nominee, Jane Lynch for Glee. The series is fading fast, but Lynch will probably squeeze out one more nomination as Sue Sylvester.
And the nominees are...
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives
Betty white, Hot in Cleveland
Jane Lynch, Glee
ACTUAL NOMINEES
Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
Number of Correct Predictions: 4/6
Brief Thoughts: Never expected Mayim Bialik or Merritt Wever. Kind of shocked with all the Betty White love elsewhere that she missed here. But no matter: should be Wiig's year.
***The Most Competitive Category Is...***
Personally, five of the six nominees for Actor in a Drama are locks: Bryan Cranston, Kelsey Grammer, Jon Hamm, Damian Lewis and Steve Buscemi. Again, it comes down to Spot No. 6 where I'm finding it difficult to predict between three frontrunners. The obvious choice is Timothy Olyphant for Justified. He's been nominated already last year, despite the relative lack of attention for the drama from mainstream audiences.
Michael C. Hall received four nominations so far for Dexter, but has never won the big award. As the serial killer drama enters its seventh season, Hall will likely miss out for the first time since the show's first year. And Hugh Laurie, who has never won an Emmy for his Gregory House portrayal, is unlikely to score one final nomination for the just-concluded medical drama.
For the record, Dustin Hoffman would be guaranteed if not for the controversy surrounding HBO's now-canceled Luck.
And the nominees are...
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Kelsey Grammer, Boss
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Damian Lewis, Homeland
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Timothy Olyphant, Justified
ACTUAL NOMINEES
Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Damian Lewis, Homeland
Number of Correct Predictions: 4/6
Brief Thoughts: Michael C. Hall is exceptional, but I really didn't think he'd get in here. Not too familiar with Downton Abbey, but acting nods aren't a shock. What is a shock is Kelsey Grammer's snub. Never in a million years would I have predicted it.
***Strong Lead Females***
Lead Actress in a Drama is never an easy category to predict. Golden Globe winner Claire Danes is guaranteed, alongside previous winners Julianna Margulies and Glenn Close. Beyond that, it gets tricky.
Mad Men's Elisabeth Moss is likely, after submitting lead last year. For eight years in a row, Mariska Hargitay has been nominated for Law & Order: SVU. It will be a surprise, but I'm predicting a snub for the veteran nominee and one-time winner. It's between her and Kyra Sedgwick for The Closer.
Being unfamiliar with the fifth season of Mad Men, I'm not sure where Jessica Pare belongs, but I've read she's in Lead so I'm predicting a surprise nod for her, as well as Revenge's Madeleine Stowe. The Emmys are known as much for their one or two surprise nominees as they are for their predictability.
And the nominees are...
Claire Danes, Homeland
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Glenn Close, Damages
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Jessica Pare, Mad Men
Madeleine Stowe, Revenge
ACTUAL NOMINEES
Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Kathy Bates, Harry's Law
Glenn Close, Damages
Claire Danes, Homeland
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Number of Correct Predictions: 4/6
Brief Thoughts: I shouldn't be surprised at Kathy Bates but I am. And my Pare and Stowe predictions were admittedly far-fetched. Not going back on my own predictions, just justifying them.
***Strong Supporting Females***
Last year's winner, Margo Martindale for Justified, is finished with the series, leaving the race wide open for a first time winner. Returning nominees will include Mad Men's Christina Hendricks as well as The Good Wife supporters Christine Baranski and one-time winner Archie Panjabi. One glaring omission in the past few years has been the phenomenal Anna Gunn for Breaking Bad. If the hit drug drama doesn't score another acting nod, this time for her, it'll be beyond criminal.
Making the leap from miniseries to regular drama is Downton Abbey, which means Maggie Smith is a lock for a Supporting Actress nod. That leaves the sixth spot down to a few choices. Previous nominee Kelly Macdonald is an obvious choice, but I won't count out a possible surprise nod for Anjelica Huston for Smash, as well as an underrated performance from Morena Baccarin for Homeland. If I had to nail down a prediction, Huston will get in for Smash in the series' only major nod.
And the nominees are...
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
Anjelica Huston, Smash
ACTUAL NOMINEES
Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Number of Correct Predictions: 5/6
Brief Thoughts: Tremendously deserved for Anna Gunn.
***Two Bad, Maybe Two Men?***
Acting nominations should grow by two this year for Breaking Bad, with Aaron Paul returning for his third nod (after a win in 2010), while Giancarlo Esposito is a major frontrunner for his role as Gus on the AMC drama. Last year's winner, Peter Dinklage, I also expect to repeat a nomination, if not the win. Four-time nominee John Slattery will likely make it five as well.
Joining them on the ballot will be Homeland's Mandy Patinkin. No- braineer. I don't expect any shock there with a Patinkin omission. That leaves one final spot that I expect to come down to Justified's Neal McDonough, Mad Men's Jared Harris and Luck's Nick Nolte. There are so many different factors to consider, especially Luck's controversial end, but if the Emmys give an acting nod to anyone, I expect it to be Nolte.
And the nominees are...
Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
John Slattery, Mad Men
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Nick Nolte, Luck
ACTUAL NOMINEES
Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
Brendan Coyle, Downton Abbey
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad
Jared Harris, Mad Men
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Number of Correct Predictions: 3/6
Brief Thoughts: My worst showing by far. Nick Nolte was my longshot, but I didn't expect Slattery and Patinkin to miss this one.
***Many Styles of Sitcom Battling It Out for Best Comedy***
It's interesting how diverse the Outstanding Comedy Series category is. Potential nominees are multi-camera sitcoms The Big Bang Theory and 2 Broke Girls, mockumentaries Modern Family, Parks & Recreation and The Office, single-camera comedies Curb Your Enthusiasm and 30 Rock and delightfully twisted Louie. But only six can get nominated.
First of all, Modern Family and Parks & Recreation are obvious guarantees. The former is the two-time reigning champ while the latter is as loved as ever by critics. Larry David, even after eight seasons, can do no wrong and Curb Your Enthusiasm should get the third slot. Last year, The Big Bang Theory broke through after building up a massive fanbase with viewers. All things considered, The Big Bang Theory is my first uncertain pick for the fourth slot. It all depends how much the Emmys are willing to change their Best Comedy category. There are multiple contenders.
30 Rock is next in line, and while the once-beloved comedy is withering away in its final days, the Emmys may still throw it a nomination, much the same as the last season or two for The Office. Other possible favorites are FX's deserving Louie, first-year HBO comedies Veep and Girls, FOX's lone hit sitcom New Girl and newbie 2 Broke Girls for CBS. Honestly, any of these shows could steal a nod. Even HBO's Enlightened, nominated at the Golden Globes, has an outside chance.
And the nominees are...
Modern Family
Parks & Recreation
Curb Your Enthusiasm
The Big Bang Theory
30 Rock
Louie
ACTUAL NOMINEES
Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Girls
Modern Family
30 Rock
Veep
Number of Correct Predictions: 4/6
Brief Thoughts: Big surprise to see Parks & Recreation out here. Same for Louie. Not shocked to see Veep and Girls make it in their place though.
***Who Will Miss Out?***
Outstanding Drama Series has seven frontrunners and only six spots available (unless a seventh is needed): Homeland, Mad Men, Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, The Good Wife and Boardwalk Empire.
Homeland, the winner at this year's Golden Globes, should walk off with a double digit tally for total nominations, and Outstanding Drama Series will top it off. Four-time winner Mad Men will be nominated every year until its end. It could win every year too. Downton Abbey cleaned up last year in the Miniseries categories and the success will translate to the Drama category. Breaking Bad, currently airing the first part of its final season, is a lock for Spot No. 4.
That's where the locks end. Most predict Game of Thrones and The Good Wife to take the final spots, which would leave Boardwalk Empire out. The Emmys love a good HBO drama, so I'm not buying that outcome for tomorrow. I think the final spot is honestly between Game of Thrones and The Good Wife. If I had to make one true, no guts no glory prediction, The Good Wife will be missing tomorrow from the nominations.
Of course, there's always the chance that Justified or Boss show up, but it's unlikely.
And the nominees are...
Mad Men
Homeland
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Boardwalk Empire
ACTUAL NOMINEES
Boardwalk Empire
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
Mad Men
Number of Correct Predictions: 6/6
Brief Thoughts: What can I say? I bet against The Good Wife and the bet paid off.
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BRIEF CLOSING THOUGHTS, POST-NOMINATIONS
Lots of surprises here. Too many omissions to count. Obvious snubs are Kelsey Grammer, Beth Behrs or Kat Dennings (though expected), Happy Endings, Revenge, Nick Offerman and Hugh Laurie for his final season. But the love for Girls, Veep, New Girl, Breaking Bad, Homeland and Game of Thrones is tremendous. In a few weeks, I will offer my predictions for the winners at the 2012 Emmy Awards.
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There you go, my predictions for the 2012 Emmy Nominations. Check back tomorrow and I will include the real nominations against my predictions. Here's hoping for a better average than the Golden Globes.
Coming up next will be my take on Breaking Bad Season 2. Until then, stay tuned.