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Hong Kong: January 12 Predictions
Rank Movie Title Prediction % Change
1  The Great Magician $650,000  
2  The Darkest Hour $550,000  
3  The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo $275,000 -35%
4  Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol $162,000 -51%
5  Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows $73,000 -56%


It'll be Magician vs. aliens this week and an upset could be in the works. The Great Magician is handily outpacing The Darkest Hour so far in ticket sales with less showtimes. Scheduling have this in the 2nd biggest screens at most places but strong selling for The Great Magician have posed a dilemma for theater owners. Originally scheduled for Christmas 2011, this moved back to the new year to get away from the Christmas releases and take advantage of the coming Chinese New Year holidays. It'll need a breakout of epic proportions this weekend, however, in order to have any chance of getting showtimes next weekend. A full-fledged lineup next weekend damages its holdover potential as it will have little chance to deliver good legs. The film has been garnering good reviews and interest with locals. Its proximity to The Viral Factor, however, limits its breakout potential. Increased ticket sales at Broadway and AMC will help bridge the gap in gross and it'll be enough to put it over the top with a first place finish and a weekend of about $650,000.

Infesting Moscow with its bright orange sparks of electricity, The Darkest Hour hopes to grapple Hong Kong viewers on the premise of an sci-fi action-thriller that'll be a spectacular treat in 3D. It even has the backing of theaters with it being booked in the largest screens city wide. Moviegoers are unconvinced, however, and have shunned this movie after it received poor reviews. Its saving grace though will be 3D prices which will allow it to remain competitive enough to challenge for #1. It'll need walk-ins to pick the pace though as ticket sales have been sparse. Its alarmingly slow ticket sales pace is cause for concern that theaters will respond accordingly and reschedule this into smaller theaters on the weekend. Negative press and bad reactions to the trailer are the main culprits to the lackluster start for The Darkest Hour so far. Rolling out very wide, this will take off with $550,000.

Dipping into its 2nd weekend officially, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will spend its first holdover weekend with the best drop of the top 5. As the top choice for moviegoers last weekend, it gets the reprieve from theaters and will retain the same number of showtimes from last week at a few places. Good word of mouth is spreading and fueling its box office multiplier prospects here. A 35% decline will strip another $275,000 to put into its bank and will push its total to $850,000 in 11 days.

After breaking the 5m barrier last weekend, Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol hopes to achieve another milestone this weekend. It has its sights set on 5.5m and with a slight decline in showtimes, it will pass it by Sunday. It has already claimed 5th after passing Kung Fu Panda 2 and Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy. Time is running out, however, if it wants to pass Pirates 4. It'll need a good drop to have a shot of getting any showtimes next weekend but it can celebrate the fact that it has shattered MI3's gross and is the #1 movie in the franchise. A 51% slide will rope another $166,000 sending it to 5.56m.

Good enough drops have given Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows the victory over its predecessor. It passed the first one 2 weekends ago and is looking for some extra cash before it is out of theaters. When the dust has settled after this weekend, it will drop 56% from last weekend and its total will climb to 3.52m in 32 days. It looks like Sherlock Holmes 2 will have to settle for becoming the 2nd highest grossing Robert Downey Jr. movie.

Catapulted with an intriguing trailer and 4 weeks of sneaks, The Skin I Live In shot into theaters 2 weeks ago with a scorching $21,000+ PTA. Raking in $253,000 so far (after January 8), it'll add another $50,000 this weekend to pump its total to $325,000.


For more information about this week or any other, visit this thread. -

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