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Ecks Factor: Race Around the Globes

At this time of year, snow is falling, the air is getting cooler and  family and friends are spending time together during the holiday  season. And for movie enthusiasts, this is the time of year when  audiences are inundated with dozens of films deemed "Oscar bait". The  Academy Awards announce their nominations in January, but before the  biggest awards show of the year, the biggest party night of the year  for the A-list is the Golden Globes, broadcasting live in January  under the tame, harmless watch of Ricky Gervais.

As movie buffs enjoy this year's latest award-worthy offerings, the Golden Globes provide a sneak peek into what might become this year's  Primetime Emmy Award nominations in television. Notoriously  unpredictable in their choosing, the Globes often favor newcomers over  veteran performers, rookies over seniors, the young versus the old.  And this year will be no different than any other, featuring some of  the best new programs of any television season in the past number of  years. But what will the Globes choose to recognize via a nomination,  let alone a win? Let's take a look at which shows I believe will make  a strong presence and which shows will get the Globe-al shaft.

In the supporting acting categories, the Globes choose to combine  television dramas, television comedies, made for television films and  miniseries. Sound fair? I don't think so either. In any event, it is  what it is and we must sacrifice certain worthy contenders (last year  alone, the Globes snubbed Modern Family's Ty Burrell and Julie Bowen,  Mad Men's John Slattery and Christina Hendricks and The Good Wife's  Alan Cumming and Archie Panjabi). However, last year, eight of the ten  supporting nominees came from television programs, both wins going to  Glee (Chris Colfer and Jane Lynch). Don't expect the same Glee-ful  love this year as the Globes rarely, if ever, give statuettes to  fading series.

This year in the Supporting Actor category, I fully expect Glee's  Chris Colfer to continue his nomination streak alone. Eric Stonestreet  will be forgotten in favor of co-star Ty Burrell. In the drama side, I  can't imagine Homeland's Mandy Patinkin being ignored for what is a  terrificly contained performance. Breaking Bad's Aaron Paul was  ignored last year, but could show up here for an always reliable job.  And let's not forget, as I did, about Game of Thrones' Peter Dinklage. Any remaining slots will go to the made-for-TV/miniseries selections.

Over at Supporting Actress, Glee's Jane Lynch will very likely  continue her nomination streak alongside Modern Family's Sofia  Vergara, although it's also possible if the Globes decide to recognize  just one person from Family, Emmy winner Julie Bowen could sneak in  there. Boardwalk Empire's Kelly Macdonald was nominated last year, and  honestly, I don't see a change this year. As for remaining  possibilities, Homeland's Morena Baccarin is an outside shot at best,  despite what shouldn't be ignored as a frustrated wife to a returning  war vet after eight years being apart. She may stand a better chance  at next year's Primetime Emmy Awards. As far as new comedies go, Up  All Night's Maya Rudolph might feel some residual appreciation due to  last summer's Bridesmaids, not due to Up All Night lighting fire to  the ratings. Of course I could hold out hope for Happy Endings' Eliza  Coupe or Casey Wilson, but the chances are next to none. One final  guarantee? Emmy winner Margo Martindale for FX's Justified.

In the leading categories, over on the comedy side, Jim Parsons  performed a rare double win at both the Emmys and the Globes for Best  Actor. There's literally zero percent chance of Parsons missing out on  a nod this year. The same cannot be said for the remaining four. Steve  Carell departed The Office back in April, and typically, these  farewell performances are not recognized the following January at the  Globes. Longtime favorite Alec Baldwin could miss out on his sixth  consecutive nod as 30 Rock starts showing its age. Most definitely to  be left out in the cold are Hung's Thomas Jane (a surprise nod last  year) and Glee's Matthew Morrison. Who will fill the empty slots? The  Globes love a newbie, and sure-to-be-nominated Melissa McCarthy could  be joined by her Mike & Molly co-star Billy Gardell. Tim Allen  received five nominations for his time on Home Improvement, including  a win, which could secure his chances for his undeniably funny  performance on Last Man Standing. Remaining possibilities include  Suburgatory's Jeremy Sisto, Community's Joel McHale, and Jim Parsons's  Big Bang co-star (and Emmy nominee) Johnny Galecki.

For Lead Actress in a Comedy, last year's winner Laura Linney for The  Big C won't have any trouble repeating her nomination. Previous winner  Toni Collette won't likely be attending this year's telecast for  United States of Tara as the series was canceled after just three  seasons. Lea Michele's time has come and gone thanks to a decaying  Glee. Tina Fey is loved by virtually everyone in show business, but is  30 Rock's lack of presence thus far this season (it won't return until  midseason) allowing the Globes a chance to snub the veteran comedy?  That leaves probable nominee Edie Falco as the only other returning  nominee. Her chances stand at 75%. I can't imagine Parks and Recreation star Amy Poehler missing  out on her first Globe nod. Aforementioned Melissa McCarthy is a  certain lock, thanks to a stellar year, including Bridesmaids. The  true conundrum is who of the big three newbies will get the remaining  slots: New Girl's Zooey Deschanel or 2 Broke Girls' Kat Dennings and  Beth Behrs? I would bet money on Deschanel and Dennings, but if the  Globes are feeling the Power of Six, all three could be nominated, and  deservedly so. This has been the year of the funny, and these three  are at the forefront of the booming sitcom. Don't count out possible  upsets from Up All Night's Christina Applegate, HBO's minimally seen  Laura Dern on Enlightened, Suburgatory's Jane Levy and Raising Hope's  Emmy nominee Martha Plimpton.

In the leading categories for drama, Lead Actor is perhaps the least  likely to change. Boardwalk Empire's Steve Buscemi walked off with a  win last year, securing a repeat nod (and perhaps win) for the  exceptional actor. Emmy favorite Bryan Cranston, despite being  ineligible at this year's Emmys, will be eligible for the Globes, and  a nomination is certain. The waters  get murky when it comes to Michael C. Hall, for Dexter, and Hugh  Laurie, for House. Laurie is almost guaranteed to miss out, after  winning two Globes for the titular role. But there's a serious lack of  obvious nominees, which may leave it open for Laurie. Damien Lewis's tortured portrayal of Nicholas Brody  on Homeland is a shoe-in, but outside of Lewis, I can't imagine who  the Globes will go for. Possible upsets could come from The Walking  Dead's Andrew Lincoln (in a sometimes great, sometimes forced performance), American Horror Story's Dylan McDermott,  Shameless's William H. Macy and Sons of Anarchy's Charlie Hunnam.

The final TV acting category is Lead Actress in a Drama. Last year's  upset winner, Katey Sagal for Sons of Anarchy, will repeat her  nomination, alongside The Good Wife's Julianna Margulies. The Closer's Kyra Sedgwick has been a consistent  nominee, but the aging series might contribute to her missing out this  year. Surprise nominee Piper Perabo, for USA's Covert Affairs, is  guaranteed to be out this year. Guaranteed in? Claire Danes on  Showtime's Homeland. Of all the terrific acting on the show, she is  tops as Carrie Mathison, a more subdued, calculated Jack Bauer (the  series comes from former 24 showrunners Howard Gordon and Alex Gansa).  If I was a betting man, she'll take home the win as well, after  winning last year for the HBO movie Temple Grandin. The fifth and  final slot will likely go to American Horror Story's Connie Britton,  who made a seamless transition between Friday Night Lights and the  Ryan Murphy co-created horror drama. Remaining possibilities? Ringer's  Sarah Michelle Gellar, Revenge's duet of Madeleine Stowe and Emily  VanCamp, and The Killing's Mirelle Enos.

That brings us to the two biggies. First up, Best Comedy Series. Last  year's nominees included 30 Rock, The Big C, The Big Bang Theory,  Modern Family, Nurse Jackie and repeat victor Glee. Of those six, the  only guarantee is Modern Family. In fact, Glee is almost guaranteed to  miss out after another lackluster year for the musical comedy.  Thursday night NBC comedy 30 Rock will likely be replaced by Parks and  Recreation. Of the cable comedies, The Big C stands a better chance  over Nurse Jackie. Newcomers 2 Broke Girls and New Girl lead the pack  of rookies, while CBS's remaining Monday comedies, How I Met Your  Mother and Mike & Molly, are great alternates. Also in the running are  The Big Bang Theory, Suburgatory and maybe It's Always Sunny in  Philadelphia? Don't forget, the Globes love to show respect for new  and never-before-nominated shows.

For Best Drama Series, returning favorites Boardwalk Empire and The Good Wife are 100% locks. Don't even suggest otherwise. Sixth- year serial killer drama Dexter is on the outs. AMC's The Walking Dead  is a popular favorite, but the competition is tough. Showtime's  Homeland missing out would be a travesty, while FX's Sons of Anarchy  getting a win last year for Katey Sagal could boost its chances for  other nominations, including Best Drama. Don't count out HBO's Game of Thrones, FX's American  Horror Story and Justified, as well as ABC's Revenge and Once Upon a  Time.

Okay, now that I've taken a look at who's in the running, it's time to  secure my nomination predictions for the 69th Golden Globe Awards.  Some are givens, some are ballsy. No guts, no glory. Here are my  predicted nominees in all television series categories:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
-Chris Colfer, "Glee"
-Ty Burrell, "Modern Family"
-Mandy Patinkin, "Homeland"
-Peter Dinklage, "Game of Thrones"
-(insert miniseries/made-for nominee)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
-Jane Lynch, "Glee"
-Julie Bowen, "Modern Family"
-Margo Martindale, "Justified"
-Kelly Macdonald, "Boardwalk Empire"
-(insert miniseries/made-for nominee)

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY
-Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"
-Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"
-Billy Gardell, "Mike & Molly"
-Tim Allen, "Last Man Standing"
-Joel McHale, "Community"

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY
-Laura Linney, "The Big C"
-Amy Poehler, "Parks & Recreation"
-Melissa McCarthy, "Mike & Molly"
-Zooey Deschanel, "New Girl"
-Kat Dennings, "2 Broke Girls"

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
-Steve Buscemi, "Boardwalk Empire"
-Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"
-Hugh Laurie, "House"
-Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"
-Damien Lewis, "Homeland"

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA
-Katey Sagal, "Sons of Anarchy"
-Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"
-Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"
-Claire Danes, "Homeland"
-Connie Britton, "American Horror Story"

BEST COMEDY
-Modern Family
-The Big Bang Theory
-The Big C
-New Girl
-2 Broke Girls

BEST DRAMA
-Boardwalk Empire
-Game of Thrones
-The Good Wife
-Homeland
-The Walking Dead

Two weeks from today, the 69th Golden Globe nominations will be  revealed. How right will I be? Will I get less than 50% right? Agree  or disagree with my nominee choices? Let me know below in the Comments  section who you think absolutely deserves some love and who absolutely  deserves a snub. Tube News is on hiatus this week. I'll be back next  week with my extended take on the second season, so far, of AMC's The  Walking Dead. Warning: there will be spoilers. Lots of them. Don't  read unless you've watched it.

Until then, stay tuned.

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Total Comments: 7
Karl Schneider
Karl Schneider    Dec 1 2011 9:55pm
Do you think Peter Dinklage has any chance at a nomination for his work in Game of Thrones?
Mister Ecks
Mister Ecks    Dec 1 2011 11:47pm
Hmm, I actually completely forgot Peter Dinklage and Game of Thrones. The show itself might squeeze in, but I'd say, moreso than Aaron Paul, Dinklage could get a nod. Definitely.
El Murato
El Murato    Dec 2 2011 5:45pm
Yo dude, you neglected Dinklage and Thrones in your nominations. Mad Men too is not eligible this season since it didnt air any new episodes since 2010. Guy Pierce too is eligible for supporting actor even for miniseries.Replace Connie Britton with Glenn Close and all the other Mad Men nominations Its not too late to edit your article. Its not too late to edit your article but you need to do more research
Mister Ecks
Mister Ecks    Dec 3 2011 1:54am
El Murato, I didn't specify any supporting nods for miniseries/made-for because I am not familiar with any of them, hence "Insert acting nod for miniseries/made-for movie".

Mad Men's missing season is completely a mistake on my part. It had been eligible for the Emmy Awards, and without further research, I had assumed it was eligible for the Globes, not realizing it had not aired in 2011.

Peter Dinklage and Game of Thrones are oversights on my part, largely due to my having not seen the show yet.

Sorry, not changing my prediction of Connie Britton for American Horror Story, nor am I including Friday Night Lights, simply because I don't believe it's eligible. Ten years ago, 24 almost was not eligible in its first year because it had not aired seven episodes in the deadline period, only six. However last year, The Walking Dead only aired six and was nominated for Best Drama. Still, the last episode aired February 9th on DirecTV. The Globes likely aren't nominating it. They operate mainly on buzz, not always merit.
Mau
Mau    Dec 3 2011 2:34am
What about Jessica Fucking Lange? she owns AHS with ease.
Mister Ecks
Mister Ecks    Dec 4 2011 7:20pm
Jessica Lange is a strong possibility as well. The Globes should split up the supporting categories. Even combining comedy and drama is tough, but combining the two with miniseries and made-for movies means many favorites are snubbed.

Hence, the Globes aren't really "TV" awards, per se. Have to wait for the Emmys for that.
Patrick Ferrara
Patrick Ferrara    Dec 11 2011 12:47am
Game of Thrones is the shit, can't wait for April