At this time of year, snow is falling, the air is getting cooler and family and friends are spending time together during the holiday season. And for movie enthusiasts, this is the time of year when audiences are inundated with dozens of films deemed "Oscar bait". The Academy Awards announce their nominations in January, but before the biggest awards show of the year, the biggest party night of the year for the A-list is the Golden Globes, broadcasting live in January under the tame, harmless watch of Ricky Gervais.
As movie buffs enjoy this year's latest award-worthy offerings, the Golden Globes provide a sneak peek into what might become this year's Primetime Emmy Award nominations in television. Notoriously unpredictable in their choosing, the Globes often favor newcomers over veteran performers, rookies over seniors, the young versus the old. And this year will be no different than any other, featuring some of the best new programs of any television season in the past number of years. But what will the Globes choose to recognize via a nomination, let alone a win? Let's take a look at which shows I believe will make a strong presence and which shows will get the Globe-al shaft.
In the supporting acting categories, the Globes choose to combine television dramas, television comedies, made for television films and miniseries. Sound fair? I don't think so either. In any event, it is what it is and we must sacrifice certain worthy contenders (last year alone, the Globes snubbed Modern Family's Ty Burrell and Julie Bowen, Mad Men's John Slattery and Christina Hendricks and The Good Wife's Alan Cumming and Archie Panjabi). However, last year, eight of the ten supporting nominees came from television programs, both wins going to Glee (Chris Colfer and Jane Lynch). Don't expect the same Glee-ful love this year as the Globes rarely, if ever, give statuettes to fading series.
This year in the Supporting Actor category, I fully expect Glee's Chris Colfer to continue his nomination streak alone. Eric Stonestreet will be forgotten in favor of co-star Ty Burrell. In the drama side, I can't imagine Homeland's Mandy Patinkin being ignored for what is a terrificly contained performance. Breaking Bad's Aaron Paul was ignored last year, but could show up here for an always reliable job. And let's not forget, as I did, about Game of Thrones' Peter Dinklage. Any remaining slots will go to the made-for-TV/miniseries selections.
Over at Supporting Actress, Glee's Jane Lynch will very likely continue her nomination streak alongside Modern Family's Sofia Vergara, although it's also possible if the Globes decide to recognize just one person from Family, Emmy winner Julie Bowen could sneak in there. Boardwalk Empire's Kelly Macdonald was nominated last year, and honestly, I don't see a change this year. As for remaining possibilities, Homeland's Morena Baccarin is an outside shot at best, despite what shouldn't be ignored as a frustrated wife to a returning war vet after eight years being apart. She may stand a better chance at next year's Primetime Emmy Awards. As far as new comedies go, Up All Night's Maya Rudolph might feel some residual appreciation due to last summer's Bridesmaids, not due to Up All Night lighting fire to the ratings. Of course I could hold out hope for Happy Endings' Eliza Coupe or Casey Wilson, but the chances are next to none. One final guarantee? Emmy winner Margo Martindale for FX's Justified.
In the leading categories, over on the comedy side, Jim Parsons performed a rare double win at both the Emmys and the Globes for Best Actor. There's literally zero percent chance of Parsons missing out on a nod this year. The same cannot be said for the remaining four. Steve Carell departed The Office back in April, and typically, these farewell performances are not recognized the following January at the Globes. Longtime favorite Alec Baldwin could miss out on his sixth consecutive nod as 30 Rock starts showing its age. Most definitely to be left out in the cold are Hung's Thomas Jane (a surprise nod last year) and Glee's Matthew Morrison. Who will fill the empty slots? The Globes love a newbie, and sure-to-be-nominated Melissa McCarthy could be joined by her Mike & Molly co-star Billy Gardell. Tim Allen received five nominations for his time on Home Improvement, including a win, which could secure his chances for his undeniably funny performance on Last Man Standing. Remaining possibilities include Suburgatory's Jeremy Sisto, Community's Joel McHale, and Jim Parsons's Big Bang co-star (and Emmy nominee) Johnny Galecki.
For Lead Actress in a Comedy, last year's winner Laura Linney for The Big C won't have any trouble repeating her nomination. Previous winner Toni Collette won't likely be attending this year's telecast for United States of Tara as the series was canceled after just three seasons. Lea Michele's time has come and gone thanks to a decaying Glee. Tina Fey is loved by virtually everyone in show business, but is 30 Rock's lack of presence thus far this season (it won't return until midseason) allowing the Globes a chance to snub the veteran comedy? That leaves probable nominee Edie Falco as the only other returning nominee. Her chances stand at 75%. I can't imagine Parks and Recreation star Amy Poehler missing out on her first Globe nod. Aforementioned Melissa McCarthy is a certain lock, thanks to a stellar year, including Bridesmaids. The true conundrum is who of the big three newbies will get the remaining slots: New Girl's Zooey Deschanel or 2 Broke Girls' Kat Dennings and Beth Behrs? I would bet money on Deschanel and Dennings, but if the Globes are feeling the Power of Six, all three could be nominated, and deservedly so. This has been the year of the funny, and these three are at the forefront of the booming sitcom. Don't count out possible upsets from Up All Night's Christina Applegate, HBO's minimally seen Laura Dern on Enlightened, Suburgatory's Jane Levy and Raising Hope's Emmy nominee Martha Plimpton.
In the leading categories for drama, Lead Actor is perhaps the least likely to change. Boardwalk Empire's Steve Buscemi walked off with a win last year, securing a repeat nod (and perhaps win) for the exceptional actor. Emmy favorite Bryan Cranston, despite being ineligible at this year's Emmys, will be eligible for the Globes, and a nomination is certain. The waters get murky when it comes to Michael C. Hall, for Dexter, and Hugh Laurie, for House. Laurie is almost guaranteed to miss out, after winning two Globes for the titular role. But there's a serious lack of obvious nominees, which may leave it open for Laurie. Damien Lewis's tortured portrayal of Nicholas Brody on Homeland is a shoe-in, but outside of Lewis, I can't imagine who the Globes will go for. Possible upsets could come from The Walking Dead's Andrew Lincoln (in a sometimes great, sometimes forced performance), American Horror Story's Dylan McDermott, Shameless's William H. Macy and Sons of Anarchy's Charlie Hunnam.
The final TV acting category is Lead Actress in a Drama. Last year's upset winner, Katey Sagal for Sons of Anarchy, will repeat her nomination, alongside The Good Wife's Julianna Margulies. The Closer's Kyra Sedgwick has been a consistent nominee, but the aging series might contribute to her missing out this year. Surprise nominee Piper Perabo, for USA's Covert Affairs, is guaranteed to be out this year. Guaranteed in? Claire Danes on Showtime's Homeland. Of all the terrific acting on the show, she is tops as Carrie Mathison, a more subdued, calculated Jack Bauer (the series comes from former 24 showrunners Howard Gordon and Alex Gansa). If I was a betting man, she'll take home the win as well, after winning last year for the HBO movie Temple Grandin. The fifth and final slot will likely go to American Horror Story's Connie Britton, who made a seamless transition between Friday Night Lights and the Ryan Murphy co-created horror drama. Remaining possibilities? Ringer's Sarah Michelle Gellar, Revenge's duet of Madeleine Stowe and Emily VanCamp, and The Killing's Mirelle Enos.
That brings us to the two biggies. First up, Best Comedy Series. Last year's nominees included 30 Rock, The Big C, The Big Bang Theory, Modern Family, Nurse Jackie and repeat victor Glee. Of those six, the only guarantee is Modern Family. In fact, Glee is almost guaranteed to miss out after another lackluster year for the musical comedy. Thursday night NBC comedy 30 Rock will likely be replaced by Parks and Recreation. Of the cable comedies, The Big C stands a better chance over Nurse Jackie. Newcomers 2 Broke Girls and New Girl lead the pack of rookies, while CBS's remaining Monday comedies, How I Met Your Mother and Mike & Molly, are great alternates. Also in the running are The Big Bang Theory, Suburgatory and maybe It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia? Don't forget, the Globes love to show respect for new and never-before-nominated shows.
For Best Drama Series, returning favorites Boardwalk Empire and The Good Wife are 100% locks. Don't even suggest otherwise. Sixth- year serial killer drama Dexter is on the outs. AMC's The Walking Dead is a popular favorite, but the competition is tough. Showtime's Homeland missing out would be a travesty, while FX's Sons of Anarchy getting a win last year for Katey Sagal could boost its chances for other nominations, including Best Drama. Don't count out HBO's Game of Thrones, FX's American Horror Story and Justified, as well as ABC's Revenge and Once Upon a Time.
Okay, now that I've taken a look at who's in the running, it's time to secure my nomination predictions for the 69th Golden Globe Awards. Some are givens, some are ballsy. No guts, no glory. Here are my predicted nominees in all television series categories:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
-Chris Colfer, "Glee"
-Ty Burrell, "Modern Family"
-Mandy Patinkin, "Homeland"
-Peter Dinklage, "Game of Thrones"
-(insert miniseries/made-for nominee)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
-Jane Lynch, "Glee"
-Julie Bowen, "Modern Family"
-Margo Martindale, "Justified"
-Kelly Macdonald, "Boardwalk Empire"
-(insert miniseries/made-for nominee)
BEST ACTOR, COMEDY
-Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"
-Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"
-Billy Gardell, "Mike & Molly"
-Tim Allen, "Last Man Standing"
-Joel McHale, "Community"
BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY
-Laura Linney, "The Big C"
-Amy Poehler, "Parks & Recreation"
-Melissa McCarthy, "Mike & Molly"
-Zooey Deschanel, "New Girl"
-Kat Dennings, "2 Broke Girls"
BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
-Steve Buscemi, "Boardwalk Empire"
-Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"
-Hugh Laurie, "House"
-Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"
-Damien Lewis, "Homeland"
BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA
-Katey Sagal, "Sons of Anarchy"
-Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"
-Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"
-Claire Danes, "Homeland"
-Connie Britton, "American Horror Story"
-The Big Bang Theory
-The Big C
-2 Broke Girls
-Game of Thrones
-The Good Wife
-The Walking Dead
Two weeks from today, the 69th Golden Globe nominations will be revealed. How right will I be? Will I get less than 50% right? Agree or disagree with my nominee choices? Let me know below in the Comments section who you think absolutely deserves some love and who absolutely deserves a snub. Tube News is on hiatus this week. I'll be back next week with my extended take on the second season, so far, of AMC's The Walking Dead. Warning: there will be spoilers. Lots of them. Don't read unless you've watched it.
Until then, stay tuned.