The Globes: Who's got a shot and who doesn't
The Golden Globes airing tomorrow night (January 16) should offer a lot of fun in terms of presenters and host Ricky Gervais. However, if the recent Critic's Choice Awards were any indication we should see some very similiar results, though there is the comedy section.
Best Original Song
“Bound to You” (“Burlesque”)
“Coming Home” (“Country Strong”)
“I See the Light” (“Tangled”)
“There’s a Place for Us” (“The Chronicles of Narnia”)
“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” (“Burlesque”)
This category could go either way at the moment. The one song I can't see winning at the moment is "Coming Home". Country Strong was panned way too much by the critics (19% on rottentomatoes.com). Also it's box office isn't that great either. The same could be said for Burlesque somewhat but it is really the only musical to be in the running so it could use that to it's advantage. If any of those two songs won it would be "You Haven't See the Last Me". "There's a Place for Us" is a strong runner-up mostly due to the fact it has such a big star in Carrie Underwood attached to it. The reason I've chosen "I See the Light" as the winner though is that the movie itself is popular with general audiences and critics, it is huge at the box office (ranking in close to $180 million so far), and it's Disney. That's a winning combo there even if it is for a "smaller" category.
Best Original Score
Alexandre Desplat (“The King’s Speech”)
Danny Elfman (“Alice in Wonderland”)
A.R. Rahman (“127 Hours”)
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross (“The Social Network”)
Hans Zimmer (“Inception”)
This category is all Zimmer. Outside of Elfman's score, these scores are fantastic and definitely well deserving of their nominations. Desplat himself has done two other great scores besides "The King's Speech" when "The Ghost Writer" and "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows- Part 1" are considered. However when you have something so simple as BRRRRRMMMMMM become so recognizable in the public's eye, "Inception" seems like the clear winner.
Best Foreign Film
“Biutiful” (Spain)
“The Concert” (France)
“The Edge” (Russia)
“I Am Love” (Italy)
“In a Better World” (Denmark)
I'm not too aware of the foreign field this year as I have not seen any of the films listed here yet. Some would say "Biutiful" should be the clear cut winner here but the reviews weren't especially fantastic (it received a 63% on RT). Also Javier Bardem seems pretty absent from nominations even with the film's early expectations. France, Russia, and Denmark's submissions have left little impact so far in the United States. That leaves us with "I Am Love" which has received enough good will state side along with a healthy enough box office for a foreign film ($5 million). Plus, it does have two-time Golden Globe nominated Tilda Swinton in it which can only be another advantage.
Best Animated Film
“Despicable Me”
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“The Illusionist”
“Tangled”
“Toy Story 3”
This year has been a particularly good year for animated movies. When you have the top two best received wide releases on Rotten Tomatoes for 2010 being animated films you know this field is hot. Another advantage too is four of the five films have grossed over $175 million dollars while one of them is the highest-grossing film of 2010. If it were 2009, I would say give "How to Train Your Dragon" the award as it is the closest Dreamworks Animation has gotten to Pixar quality. However, you have "Toy Story 3" this year, the prized ending to the beloved trilogy that got Pixar on the map. It's a no-brainer, even if it and "Dragon" were just one percent away on the Tomatometer (99% vs. 98%).
Best Screenplay
Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy (“127 Hours”)
Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg (“The Kids Are All Right”)
Christopher Nolan (“Inception”)
David Seidler (“The King’s Speech”)
Aaron Sorkin (“The Social Network”)
Once again, we have a list of fantastic works. Every single one of these works had something that was so unique and different from other films that it really had to test its audience. Whether it be watching a movie where the majority of the time a man's arm was stuck. How about one of the first mainstream films too really show a family structure where it was just two moms in the picture. Invading dreams, conquering a speech impediment, or creating a website is how this category rounds out. They are all exceptional films (each receiving at least a 3.5/4 from me) but Aaron Sorkin is ready for a win now. It's his fourth nomination at the Globes and with such a highly perceived script as his, along with the Critic's Choice win the other day, this is his award.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (“The Fighter”)
Helena Bonham Carter (“The King’s Speech”)
Mila Kunis (“Black Swan”)
Melissa Leo (“The Fighter”)
Jacki Weaver (“Animal Kingdom”)
At the moment, this is a three woman race and should stay that way at the Oscars unless "True Grit" star Hailee Steinfeld is put here as well. Mila Kunis had some fun in "Black Swan" but with Natalie Portman getting all the attention, Kunis wasn't strong enough to break through and make her own impressive mark. Jacki Weaver may of turned out an award-worthy performance but she'll face a similiar situation like Nicole Kidman in "Rabbit Hole", the film was too small at the box office ($1 million) to make an impression on voters. Helena Bonham Carter definitely stepped outside her usual weird roles with "The King's Speech" She definitely works well on her own even with Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush taking some spotlight. Though her role could of been a bit too small to cause a win. The two supporting ladies of "The Fighter' do well also. Both deserve a win but since this is Adams' third nomination here opposed to Leo's first, Adams could have more support. Though, Leo's win at the Critics' Choice Awards even over Steinfeld could show how much of a threat she could be. It's a tough decision between these two (and even Carter to a small extent) but I'm giving the award to Adams at the moment.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale (“The Fighter”)
Michael Douglas (“Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps”)
Andrew Garfield (“The Social Network”)
Jeremy Renner (“The Town”)
Geoffrey Rush (“The King’s Speech”)
You can thank nostalgic reasons and cancer risk for Douglas' nomination. With cancer risk gone now and mediocre reviews and overall reception, Douglas ranks last here. Even with his big break in "The Hurt Locker" last year, Jeremy Renner doesn't back down in his supporting role in "The Town". It fits in with the Boston setting well and he has some defying moments but with not much attention on the role until now, I don't think he is suddenly going to surprise with a win. Geoffrey Rush definitely took a good supporting turn in "The King's Speech" and the film is definitely earning a lot of buzz at the box office but at the moment he seems to be better shaped at competing for the Oscar then the Globe. Andrew Garfield seems to have gained more talk then his co-star Jesse Eisenberg in "The Social Network" and it makes some sense as Garfield's character takes many more emotional turns and has a stronger background for audiences to grasp when compared to Eisenberg's portrayal of Mark Zuckerberg. I would put him as winner at the moment if it weren't for the final actor left to be talked about here's drastic turn. Christian Bale has definitely taken a big turn when it comes to his roles whether it be his time in "American Psycho" or his time as Batman. He also is known for not having the greatest patience. All that aside, his turn here as Dickey Eklund is both emotionally driven and all the more scary. His dramatic weight loss can be one contributor to that as well as his great chemistry with co-star Mark Wahlberg.
Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)
Annette Bening (“The Kids Are All Right”)
Anne Hathaway (“Love and Other Drugs”)
Angelina Jolie (“The Tourist”)
Julianne Moore (“The Kids Are All Right”)
Emma Stone (“Easy A”)
I didn't think "The Tourist" was too bad of a film (I gave it 2.5/4) but in no way shape or form does Jolie deserve a nomination. "Love and Other Drugs" wasn't a big hit money wise or critic wise to earn enough of a look into a win. "Easy A" was my favorite film in this list and Emma Stone sure was fantastic, but when it comes down to facing veterans she wouldn't stand a chance. As such, she doesn't stand a chance this year sadly. Which leaves us with Moore vs. Bening. "The Kids Are All Right" may have centered more around Moore's character but it was really Bening's character that stood out more. She was fierce when she needed to be and coolly collective at the same time. Moore, however, seemed to have trouble finding her balance between the swing of good events and bad events. In that case, Bening surpasses Moore. Also with her now sixth nomination at the Globes (one of them turning into a win) I believe it's time for Bening to accept another victory.
Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)
Johnny Depp (“Alice in Wonderland”)
Johnny Depp (“The Tourist”)
Paul Giamatti (“Barney’s Version”)
Jake Gyllenhaal (“Love and Other Drugs”)
Kevin Spacey (“Casino Jack”)
Look at Jolie's explanation to get my jist on Johnny Depp's nomination for "The Tourist" and his chances of winning for that role. For "Alice in Wonderland" as well, he did a fine enough job with the Mad Hatter but there was nothing to write home about. He could still very well win for that role as I have him as a runner-up. The film was huge (making over $330 million) and audiences seemed to love him. Plus, he is Johnny Depp which means ratings. Though it would be a sour reason for him to win. Gyllenhaal falls under the same reasons as Hathaway here. "Barney's Version" hasn't gotten a lot of attention in critics' circles and hasn't even seen much a release so Giamatti won't be in the running. That leaves us with Kevin Spacey. Sure "Casino Jack" is not huge and I used that reasoning to say Weaver doesn't have a chance with "Animal Kingdom". However, this is the actor's sixth nomination at the Globes and he hasn't won once yet. Also, despite him not being nominated, this would be a nice honor to director Geroge Hickenlooper's last film as the director died unexpectedly last October.
Best Actress (Drama)
Halle Berry (“Frankie and Alice”)
Nicole Kidman (“Rabbit Hole”)
Jennifer Lawrence (“Winter’s Bone”)
Natalie Portman (“Black Swan”)
Michelle Williams (“Blue Valentine”)
This is Portman's win, no matter what. It is probably one of the few absolute locks I can think of. She is what makes "Black Swan". Add in the fact that the film will become a future $100 million grosser along with Portman's future baby and recent engagement, it's a big win. Halle Berry's nomination makes absolutely no sense as really it has been talked about so little. Kidman's case of a small film that hasn't been talked about much outside of her performance applies here. Michelle Williams definitely earned a lot of attention in her turn with Ryan Gosling in "Blue Valentine". However, with the NC-17 controversy and all the other buzz, it just isn't enough to overshadow Portman. Jennifer Lawrence also got a lot of eyes looking at her for "Winter's Bone" but once again, with the huge success of Portman and "Black Swan", it just isn't enough.
Best Actor (Drama)
Jesse Eisenberg (“The Social Network”)
Colin Firth (“The King’s Speech”)
James Franco (“127 Hours”)
Ryan Gosling (“Blue Valentine”)
Mark Wahlberg (“The Fighter”)
Jesse Eisenberg definitely separated himself from the Michael Cera clone jokes with his turn in "The Social Network. His portrayal of Facebook creator Mark Zuckerberg definitely hits a lot of marks and is a strong dramatic turn. However, it isn't as witty as some of the other roles here to take a chance at the Globe. Ryan Gosling fits the same field as Michelle Williams here. Wahlberg is definitely good in "The Fighter" and his four years of training showed. However, Christian Bale definitely seems to have overshadowed Wahlberg's turn and as such will lose votes. James Franco definitely put all his chops out on the table with "127 Hours". It's a role not many actors could accomplish and with having to take a film where he is basically in the same spot the entire time, Franco sure does a fine job. He is good enough for at least runner-up. This is Colin Firth's to lose however as his snub from "A Single Man" will only help his case more. As well, taking the job of acting with a stutter and making it not sound too stressed or pathetic is a definite plus.
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky (“Black Swan”)
David Fincher (“The Social Network”)
Tom Hooper (“The King’s Speech”)
Christopher Nolan (“Inception”)
David O. Russell (“The Fighter”)
Aronofsky took a large step but making a horror movie with ballerinas so invigorating and thought-provoking that it left you wondering when you left the theater. Hooper took a script as small as a man overcoming his stutter in a two-hour movie and making it enjoyable as well as one of the year's best. Nolan made us think about dreams in such unique ways we have never thought of before. O. Russell was able to take a devastating family structure and show a hero rise from that figure as a world-class fighter. They all were strong and showed their wits behind the camera trying to make the best they could. However, it was Fincher's simple portrayal of a man's creation of social giant Facebook and the turmoil that followed that seems to be grasping the most awards praise so far. It is for that reason that Fincher as well will be put in the honor pool and earned the Best Director Globe.
Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)
“Alice in Wonderland”
“Burlesque”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“Red”
“The Tourist”
This is another very simple category. Three can already be eliminated on the bat here and they are "Alice in Wonderland", "Burlesque", and "The Toruist". All three were not that well received and really questions why the hell they were nominated in the first place. They aren't high in the discussion tables and it questions why others missed the bar. "Love and Other Drugs", "Casino Jack", and Critics' Choice winner "Easy A" would of been much better choices to fill those three spots. The fact that "Easy A" isn't in here despite its large praise shows just how bad this category was made up this year. The last two spots, "The Kids Are All Right" and "Red' both were respectable film enjoyed by peers and critics alike. The one problem is that "Red" is more action driven then comedy. Also, the film did not get any other nominations so it is out in the cold. Which leaves due to process of elimination "The Kids Are All Right" as the winner here. It has nominations (which should result in a win) and is considered on the Oscar Best Picture list by many. It's a no-brainer.
Best Picture (Drama)
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”
Our final category of the night finds us with the same films as there were in Best Director and the same situation follows. "The Social Network" has become too much of a big critical success from everywhere that it is the clear winner here. With two other strong looking wins for the night, it already has a good bit in it's favor. For "Netowrk" to lose here would be the biggest shock of the night as it has dominated so much so far. At least they didn't consider "The Tourist" a drama or who knows what could of happened here. Joking aside, it's another no-brainer.
So catch the Globes on NBC, Sunday at 8 PM eastern time to see who wins and see how good these predictions actually were.
BEST
“Bound to You” – BURLESQUE
“Coming Home” – COUNTRY STRONG
[b]“I See the Light” – TANGLED[/b]
“There’s a Place for Us” – THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE DAWN TREADER
“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” – BURLESQU
BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE
“Bound to You” – BURLESQUE
“Coming Home” – COUNTRY STRONG
[b]“I See the Light” – TANGLED[/b]
“There’s a Place for Us” – THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE DAWN TREADER
“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” – BURLESQUE
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