The Turk's Movie Predictions Oct 21-23 2011

Oct 21 2011 1:38pm

Rank	Name	Prediction	PTA	% Change
1	Paranormal Activity 3	45.1M	13580	NEW
2	The Three Musketters	12.3M	4070	NEW
3	Real Steel	11.2M	3285	-29.3%
4	Footloose	9.5M	2670	-37.1%
5	Johnny English Reborn	5.3M	3400	NEW
6	The Ides Of March	4.8M	2370	-31.9%
7	Dolphin Tale	4.7M	1645	-24.6%
8	Moneyball	3.8M	1620	-30.1%
9	The Thing	3.7M	1230	-54.8%
10	50/50	3.3M	1700	-22.9%

Paranormal Activity 3 is looking to open slighty higher than PA2 so I say for a 45.1M weekend. Opening in the 2nd spot is The Three Musketters for 12.3M. In the 3rd spot is Real Steel for 11.2M. In 4th is Footloose for 9.5M. Opening in the 5th spot is Johnny English Reborn I have it opening with 5.3M; (opening a little below tracking, I have it lower than mostly because it is opening in only 1551 theaters for the 2nd Johnny English movie, opoose to 2236 for the first one). In 6th is The Ides Of March for 4.8M. In 7th is Dolphin Tale for 4.7M. In 8th is Moneyball for 3.8M. In 9th is The Thing for 3.7M. 10th is 50/50 for 3.3M. For your derby watchers I have The Mighty Macs opening with 1.5M this weekend.

Total Comments: 3

The Turk Oct 21 2011 1:56pm

After reviewing My predictions, I am thinking I am a little too high on 50/50, after rechecking theater counts, I should have gone with 3.0M instead of 3.3M.

ShawnMR Oct 21 2011 3:09pm

I seem to be the odd-ball on The Thing this week. Most comparisons I saw did indicate a possible 55-60% drop, but I'm a bit more pessimistic considering how hard PA3 will hit it. My Soul to Take dropped harder in its third weekend (when PA2 released) last year than its second. To be honest, I nearly went with a flat (-70%) drop.

Patrick Ferrara Oct 21 2011 10:12pm

Agreed, it gonna drop hard!

The Turk

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