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Scottie Predicts (October 21-23)
Rank Name Prediction PTA % Change
1  Paranormal Activity 3 40.2 12.1k new
2  The Three Musketeers 3D 13.6 4.5k new
3  Real Steel 11.1 3.3k -32%
4  Footloose 9.8 2.8k -37%
5  Johnny English Reborn 6.2 4k new
6  The Ides of March 5.0 2.4k -30%
7  Dolphin Tale 4.5 1.6k -28%
8  Moneyball 3.6 1.5k -34%
9  The Thing 2.9 under 1k -66%
10  50/50 2.7 1.4k -37%

It's Halloween Time, and you what that means.  No, not another Saw film, but a new series of annual weekend before Halloween films, known as the Paranormal Activity series.  The third installment arrives to scare you on 3321 theaters.  Unlike the Saw films, this series is getting favorable marks from critics, and this one is no exception.  This time, the victims are the ones from the previous films, but now as children, which hints that this is a prequel.  This is fresh enough to attract the existing fanbase, but it will not excite new fans this time around.  Midnights and 10pm shows from Thursday are selling out, which hints that the midnight gross will be a bit higher than the last one, but it will not exceed the weekend gross from the last film.  Reasons:  Since this one has more 10pm shows, the rush factor will spoil the weekend gross a bit, and with no IMAX release this time, the per theater average will be slightly lower than the last installment.  BOM polls are slightly lower too, therefore, the weekend gross will be slightly lower than the last one, but will still dominate the weekend.

It's all for one and one for all, the umpteenth version of the Three Musketeers arrives in 3017 theaters house, but this time, in the 3rd dimension.  Despite the 3D gimmick, there is not much excitement for this version, since it has no big names other than the director, and reviews are not impressive at all.  The marketing has been solid though, getting alot of ad time from sports games, so awareness is pretty high.  And those who cannot get in to Paranormal Activity might check thisout.  I don't see the per theater average going that much higher than of Musketeer released a decade ago.  Attendance will be lower this time too.

His name is English, Johnny English, and he will stumble his way too 1551 cinemas this weekend.  Despite being big Overseas, especially in England, Rowan Atkinson has never been overly popular in the states.  Although he does have a niche audience, this one will not expand the fanbase as this character has been forgotten by some people.  I don't see this film reaching the levels as the last Mr. Bean film, and with a narrow release, the per theater average should be at 4k due to the niche audiences filling up the somewhat limited seats for this film.

Not in the top ten, Mighty Macs will suffer due to lack of publicity and lack of faith from the studio.  I see this film in the same category as the Ultimate Gift, with a 1.2k pta from 975 theaters.

Among holdovers, due to Paranormal Activity being rated R, and none of the other openers generating too much excitement, the PG-13 and below films should see lower than expected declines, just like last year.  Real Steel will hold on better than last weekend with good WOM and one more weekend of IMAX theaters too itself.  Footloose would have usually had a drop close to half, and with Paranormal opening, and this would be the film most likely to get a sneak in boost, not to mention that being a Paramount film will boost the grosses from it's sister film, the drop will be under 40%.  Ides of March will drop 30% due to the good WOM still kicking in and not the benefit from Paranormal since it is R-rated as well.  Dolphin Tale see no direct competition for one last time.  Moneyball would have dropped under 30% without the theater drop.  The Thing will take the biggest hit, not only from the Paranormal Activity, but also from the mediocre WOM, and the R-rating.  50/50 will drop bigger than usual this time with a theater drop and the R-rating.

This is my first article in two months.  What happened you asked?  Well first off, I have been busy with getting my college classes under control, and second of all, these past weekends were too boring to predict anyway.  Well, I'm back, and I will be signing off, once again.

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Total Comments: 1
Karl Schneider
Karl Schneider    Oct 21 2011 11:19am
Hope school's going well!