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Hong Kong: September 29 Predictions
Rank Name Prediction % Change
1  Johnny English Reborn $1,200,000  
2  Spy Kids: All the Time in the World $260,000  
3  3 Idiots $175,000 +9%
4  Shark Night $135,000  
5  1911 $110,000  

Note: The predictions above do not take the typhoon into account. Should the typhoon make a direct hit, grosses will be significantly lower.

Johnny English Reborn is the big story this week. It is playing ultra wide and with the holiday, it should debut with over 1m. The benchmark for this movie is $900,000, about what Overheard 2 opened with. Pre-sales have been going steady at most places and scheduling has this on the biggest screens playing ultra wide, some with 2 screens. First one finished 1.5m total and this will easily beat its predecessor's gross.

Spy Kids: All the Time in the World hopes to use a new fragrance card to lure in kids and parents alike. The trick should work as it has the holiday to make up for any lost business from the typhoon. Zookeeper bombing is good news for Spy Kids as it has the marketplace to itself with younger children. Spy Kids 3D opened to $482,000 first week. I see something similar for Spy Kids 3D with another holiday coming on Wednesday.

I'm finally jumping on the bandwagon of 3 Idiots. I see another increase due to the holiday. Even though pre-sales have started to slow down a tad, holiday will make up big business as longer films do much better in admissions/gross on holidays. Its total after the September 22 weekend stands at an outstanding $606,909 and it is looking like it will clear 1m easily. 1.5m could be a final target.

As we draw closer to Halloween, more horror/thriller movies are starting to surface. Case in point, Shark Night which is another in a long line of horror movies coming out these 2 months. Shark Night should do okay business but it won't see much of a bump on the holiday. Pre-sales have been below average so far.

1911 is Jackie Chan's latest foray into serious melodrama. Playing at an ultra wide capacity of more than 30 theaters, this will sneak into the top 5 based on its theater count. It's being presented in Putonghua which is not a good thing for its box office success in Hong Kong and the genre won't make anyone want to catch this as there have been many movies like this. $110,000 may not seem like a bad start given the language and type of movie but looking at the gross in conjunction with the screen count leaves a lot to be desired.

Abduction is Taylor Lautner's first starring role after Twilight. The studio hopes that fans of Twilight will flock to this but pre-sales suggest the contrary as weak ticket sales might have sunk this film's chances of a top 5 showing. It will probably do similar numbers to Robert Pattinson's Water for Elephants which debuted in May with about $95,000. The holiday can only do so much and with the action market cornered by Johnny English Reborn and The Sorcerer and the White Snake, I don't see a big gross in its future. $85,000 could be its lead off gross.

The Sorcerer and the White Snake is a Chinese fantasy action epic. It stars Jet Li and Raymond Lam and its inclusion into the Venice Film Festival might draw a few onlookers but its screen count doesn't seem like it will do anything substantial. A weekend of $70,000 may happen.

Sleeping Beauty is the lone flick not expected to contend for the top 5. Showing in just 2 theaters, this has a Black Swan-ish vibe and will be playing in the arthouse theaters. An opening of $12,500 could happen.

Holdovers aren't expected to do much with the slashing and hacking going on with its showtimes. Maybe the best chance for any holdover success will be Paradise Kiss with no other Japanese films this week with about a 30-40% drop.

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Total Comments: 8
Bluebomb    Sep 27 2011 12:23pm
Sorry about the short article. Site gave me an error and I lost all of my work.
Karl Schneider
Karl Schneider    Sep 27 2011 1:47pm
Aww crap, what was the error?
Bluebomb    Sep 27 2011 2:21pm
I think after a certain period of inactivity, you log out automatically. That causes the article you're working on to disappear after you're forced to re-log.

My articles sometimes take a while to do because I'm basically trying to make sure it's all accurate (especially the estimates/totals). When I do these prediction articles, most of the time actuals do not come out yet so I try and make a best guess possible when making estimates/projecting totals factoring in the weekdays as well.
Bluebomb    Sep 27 2011 2:26pm
I should also note that sometimes I get the error because I go a.f.k. for a while and come back to finish the article later.
Karl Schneider
Karl Schneider    Sep 27 2011 5:53pm
Yeah, session timing out will do that. I'll make note for the long term, but for now, you could always write in notepad, use the paste as plain text option to paste it in, and then just do the formatting in the editor?
Jack Sparrow
Jack Sparrow    Sep 30 2011 9:23am
Yep mostly I'll write into Notepad first and then just do the formatting. I had this problem as well due to my very long articles, which I just save/submit whatever I write first. Karl please fix at the earliest, there should be a save and submit mechanism where save is just saving in a personal space (uncompleted articles) and submit is the final version of the article available in the main site.

There is also another trick: You can just remember your article id for example this article has i=452, that way you can get the contents of recently written articles, I did that once for an article I closed by mistake (although I retrieved the contents from the preview page and had to format the whole thing again). I would never try that option again :)
Karl Schneider
Karl Schneider    Sep 30 2011 1:57pm
The plan is to add a pre-production section so that you can write and save, then come back later to publish.
Bluebomb    Sep 30 2011 3:12pm
Noted. Thanks. Will use Notepad in the future.