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Hong Kong Box Office: August 25 Predictions
Rank Name Prediction % Change
1  Overheard 2 $555,000 -39%
2  Cowboys & Aliens $371,000  
3  Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes $317,200 -48%
4  Horrible Bosses $250,000  
5  Final Destination 5 $181,740 -61%


6 new openers look to topple Overheard 2 but the sequel will have the advantage this weekend. Playing to sold out crowds, Overheard 2 has had excellent WOM so far and weekdays so far have been very promising. It had the biggest admissions increase on Tuesday which saw heavy week-to-week drops for most of the holdovers due to school starting for some children. Thursday and Friday look to be very deflated for the holdovers and even more so for Overheard 2 because of this. Thursday and Friday could see week-to-week declines of 50% or more for Overheard 2 but it will pick up drastically with Saturday/Sunday, possibly jumping 100% on Saturday. Scheduling has this in either the biggest screen or on 2 screens (2nd biggest and 1 smaller one). Pre-sales for Thursday and Friday have looked not bad so far. It is not selling out as fast as last week but is outdoing all releases at most locations. I'm putting this weekend at a conservative $555,000, a 39% drop due to weaker weekdays sending it to about 1.9m.

Cowboys & Aliens is Jon Favreau's directorial follow up to the Iron Man series but expectations for this film have been lowered ]with the move to the final weekend of the summer. This was supposed to come out last week but moved when Overheard 2 set its release date for last Thursday. In any case, while moving may have caused it to have a better market ranking, box office returns will be lighter as kids head back to school and weekdays are deflated. The cowboys aspect of this movie is not appealing to most people here even with aliens thrown in. It is getting an IMAX release with it sharing the screen with Cars 2, Harry Potter and Apes (non-IMAX). Scheduling has this on one screen but pre-sales have been mixed. Some places are having strong sales while others are weak and even trailing Horrible Bosses in admissions. IMAX sales have not been good as it is only 15-40% full at peak hours. It has been getting negative reviews and this will serve as another motivating factor for adults to skip this after a very busy summer. Daniel Craig is not much of a draw but aliens might be able to spark some interest in moviegoers. $371,000 would be a disappointing lead off weekend but IMAX will boost its number.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes will get its showtimes cut this weekend but will be looking to drop less than 50% again. After a great weekend hold last weekend, it will try and shrug off the deflated weekdays and hope the weekend will boost its drop. It is still showing some strength at a few locations with it beating Cowboys & Aliens to claim #2 in pre-selling at those particular theaters. Showtimes have been cut around half in some places while downgraded in others. Add in the deflated weekdays but good WOM and its drop will be very close to around 50%. It had a 56% week-to-week drop Tuesday but Thursday and Friday will see smaller decreases. I think Cowboys & Aliens will steal #2 away from Apes with IMAX showings but Apes will put up a good fight. A 48% drop would give it $317,200 for the weekend and a 2.78m total.

Horrible Bosses looks to add some laughs into the fold with its starpowered comedic movie. Surprisingly, it is the one of the few comedy releases of the summer as we've had every other genre represented except for this. While The Hangover 2 did well, other comedies such as Bridesmaids moved out of a summer release and into a fall one to take advantage of an easier slate. With much of the city gripped by Overheard 2, it could overperform but most likely it will perform as expected. Scheduling has this on one screen and pre-sales have been ok. It's below Cowboys & Aliens and Apes but ahead of all other releases. With the empty marketplace, it might be able to do solid business but most will ignore this for another release. Reviews have been solid so good WOM should not be a problem. A $250,000 weekend would be an acceptable start.

Final Destination 5 is having surprisingly strong sales at a couple of locations which makes me believe that this can snag #5 over Wasao. It might not win in admissions over Wasao but the 3D prices will be enough to take the last slot. Weekdays should be ok as this is for 18 and up but Saturday and Sunday will take a hit as theaters will schedule Wasao over this. -61% leaves it with $181,740 for the weekend and ups its total to about $800,000.

Wasao is a Japanese movie that has been dubbed into Chinese. This will bring in many families who love cute animals. A $150,000 would be an extremely good start. It may even beat out Final Destination 5 for the weekend. Pre-sales have been weak but it will definitely pick up this weekend.

Summer Love Love is the final romance movie of the summer. After an exhausting 4 months and an extensive list of Hollywood, local and mainland releases, this hopes to get what's left of the couples crowd. Pre-sales seem to have it in the Beach Spike area. This is still going up against a lot of competition and fatigue could be setting in. A weekend of about $90,000 sounds about right.

The Whistleblower is playing in limited release and should do similar numbers to The Conspirator. While that had strong sales, this looks weak and pre-sales haven't been really hot. It might only break a $4,000 PSA which translates to about a $30,000 opening weekend.

Snow Flower And The Secret Fan is also playing in limited release and will only be shown in 4 theaters. Pre-sales have looked not bad and this could break the $20,000 mark. $22,000 looks good given the ok pre-selling and scheduling.

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