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Hong Kong Box Office: August 18 Predictions
Rank Name Prediction % Change
1  Overheard 2 $1,100,000  
2  Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes $470,400 -58%
3  Final Destination 5 $400,000  
4  Cars 2 $340,000 -54%
5  Larry Crowne $280,000  

Another 2D vs. 3D battle occurs for the 2nd week in a row but this time it will be a landslide victory for the 2D release. Overheard 2 is the sequel to the popular surprise hit that opened in 2009 against Pixar's Up, raking in $686,214 opening weekend and finishing just shy of 2m. Like The Stool Pigeon last year, the marketplace will be empty in terms of direct competition as there has been no locally made dramatic thriller released in months. It does have some formidable competition and will be going up against Death in the 5th installment of the Final Destination series as well as the Tom Hanks/Julia Roberts vehicle Larry Crowne. Those won't hold a candle to Overheard 2 as many fans/public will line up in droves to see one of the few local drama/thriller releases of the summer. All 3 stars from the first film return but the sequel won't be a continuation of the first. Instead, a brand new story complete with new characters will make up the film's structure, which is good news for those who didn't care for the first one. Scheduling has this booked in either the biggest or the 2nd largest screen with some theaters giving this 2 screens at night. Pre-selling has looked good at night where it has done the majority of business so far. It is even outpacing Apes night sales from last week at a few locations. A weekend over 1m is in play and it could make more than Apes' opening weekend from last week.

Final Destination returns and hopes to satisfies fans of the series by giving them what they want: gruesome deaths wrapped up in an enjoyable flick. Its the second film after The Final Destination to be offered in 3D and theaters hope that viewers will pay the extra surcharge to watch Death whack off the survivors one by one. The problem that the 5th movie faces is that it's going up against big competition that it did not have with The Final Destination. Another problem is that the release date in August has also put it up against the leftovers of the blockbuster movies of the summer that it normally would not have in September. Scheduling has backed me up on this as some theaters is only showing this 3 times per day when in September, it would get the usual 6 or 7. Pre-selling is looking even worse with it lagging behind Larry Crowne and way behind Overheard 2. This will surely decline in opening weekend and the total from The Final Destination. It doesn't look good for Final Destination's OS start so far.

Larry Crowne will be the 3rd movie coming out this week and is being served as counter-programming to the other 2 films. It has some major backing from UA which offered pre-selling 2 weeks in advance on the biggest screens at a few locations. The starpower of mainly Julia Roberts but also Tom Hanks will entice couples to watch this as it is surprisingly the only older romantic comedy of the summer. We've seen a ton of romantic comedies geared at teens/young adults but this will be the first one to play to the over 40 crowd. It should do slightly better than most romantic comedies but I don't think it will be able to escape Overheard's grasp. It would still be a great opening number but there is nothing here to suggest any breakout. Pre-selling has been relatively weak but it should pick up especially with walk-ins like most romantic comedies tend to do.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes delivered a very good opening weekend but will be hard-pressed to follow that up with a great drop this weekend. It will be tackled from all sides with 3 new openers all trying to steal a slice of the pie and with 1 one of them delivering quite a punch. The great WOM from last weekend should trickle into this weekend but the screen loss will really hurt its Saturday and Sunday. Most likely, extra screens will go to Overheard 2 while Apes will only get one screen. In some theaters, this has gone from the biggest to the smallest theater in 1 week due to new openers so a drop under 50% looks unlikely. Thursday has looked weak so far with very little ticket sales but this will pick up in walk-ins. A 58% drop would translate to a $470,400 weekend and would send it to 2.02m in 11 days.

After that disappointing official opening last weekend, Cars 2 hopes to rebound like what The Smurfs did in its 2nd weekend. Its weekend, however, didn't follow Smurfs opening weekend blueprint though. It had another discouraging sign on Saturday when it increased less than 50% from Friday which could suggest that it is having bad WOM or that parents will not spend more money on a kids film. Another possibility is that the special screenings also decreased its daily percentage % on the weekend but it's too early to say if its either the former or the latter. The good news is that there will be no direct competition this weekend as theaters will take a 1 week break before a live action kids movie opens on August 25. Cars 2 should see a slightly better drop than Apes but it won't be much. $340,000 would take it to $1.69m total.

The Smurfs will look to crack the 2m mark but time is running out as their cuteness has already worn thin on the public. Screens will get cut fairly heavy across the board as theaters make room for the new openers. It could see a 70% drop from last week to just $120,000 and about 1.65m total.

Captain America could not save its 2nd weekend as it dove off a cliff with a 67% drop. It is getting completely cut in about 60% of the theaters so an 80% drop would only leave it with $88,000 for the weekend and around 2.2m. It's in jeopardy of failing to beat Thor even though it had a stronger opening weekend.

The Fortune Buddies opened with a respectable gross north of $300,000 and will look to cross $500,000 this weekend. It has been getting saved by theaters so drop shouldn't be too harsh. A 51% drop would leave it with $155,000 for the weekend and about $695,000 total.

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