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Hong Kong Box Office: August 11 Predictions
Rank Name Prediction % Change
1  Cars 2 $900,000  
2  Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes $800,000  
3  Captain America: The First Avenger $510,000 -58%
4  The Smurfs $260,000 -61%
5  The Fortune Buddies $220,000  

In what could be the closest battle of the summer, Cars 2 officially opens against Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes in what is set to be a showdown between big/evil and small/good. Cars 2 premiered 2 weekends ago with special screenings and has taken in $350,000 with previews alone. While it has the benefit of 3D prices, the special screenings have hurt its opening weekend admissions and maybe its weekend ranking. Poor WOM may have seeped in which is causing people to rethink watching this. Theaters have scheduled this in 1 or 2 theaters depending on what audiences they have to serve (Eng./Chi.). While it has done better in mornings, presales have been behind Apes at most locations at night. It might even lose out in admissions this weekend but may just scrape ahead by 3D prices alone. I suspect that Saturday/Sunday will put it over the top even though Apes will still see a solid increase in admissions on those days. The increases that Cars 2 should have however, will carry it above Apes for the weekend. Animation this summer has been disappointing with the mediocre openings of Kung Fu Panda 2 and The Smurfs so this is animation's last chance at producing a better than expected OW.

Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes will be looking to pull off the upset and it could very well do so. Presales have so far been good although it might not be enough to make up the 3D surcharge difference. Great WOM could have a big impact this weekend as this looks to grab the general public plus the apes fans. It is showing on the biggest screens at night at almost every location so theaters are clearly expecting this to do some big business this weekend. It does not have the same amount of showtimes that Cars 2 has but it has buzz and general reactions to the trailers have been very good. Increases on Saturday/Sunday should be very good for a film of this nature. I think there's a possibility that this will win in admissions on all 4 days but will lose out in gross but an $800,000 start would be great regardless of where it ends up. WOM will carry this film and we could see this getting saved over Cars the next couple of weekends when Overheard 2, Final Destination 5, Cowboys & Aliens, Horrible Bosses, Larry Crowne and Insidious all open.

Captain America: The First Avenger did its job opening weekend but will slip to 3rd in its 2nd weekend. It has been relegated to 1 smaller screen per theater and it will not have the same big screens like it did last week. It has so far shown weak presales for Thursday/Friday and will need to pick it up with walk-ins. It won't get hit as hard as Smurfs will but it seems like moviegoers are ready to move on so a 58% slide would give it a $510,000 weekend for a total of 2m in 11 days.

The Smurfs opened tepidly last weekend but it will have no time to recover as it will come under direct threat from Cars 2. Pre-sales have not been good so far and they are behind Captain America's. Screens have been cut to make room for the new openers so it will see a hefty drop. -61% would bring it up to 1.25m in 2 weeks.

The Fortune Baddies is the 3rd wide release this week. It's a comedy that stars a ton of TVB actors and will look to play to audiences looking for a laugh. Theaters have opted to give this 1 screen or a shared screen but pre-sales have not been good. A weekend just below Love Is The Only Answer is looking likely.

Little White Lies is only playing in limited release and will take in about $10,000 for the weekend.

Harry Potter 7-2 is one of the casualties of this weekend as some theaters have cut this out completely. A 63% drop could happen.

Kung Fu Panda 2 will get hit once again by a new animated release along with theater cuts. A 67% drop is possible.

Transformers 3 will shed most of its remaining theaters. 11m seems impossible now.

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