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Scottie Predicts (August 5-7)
Rank Name Prediction PTA % Change
1  Rise of the Planet of the Apes  35.0 9.6k  new
2  The Smurfs  19.6  5.8k  -45%
3  Cowboys and Aliens  16.4  4.4k  -55%
4  The Change-Up  13.4  4.6k  new
5  Captain America  12.5  3.5k  -51%
6  Harry Potter 7  11.0  3.5k  -50%
7  Crazy Stupid Love  10.9  3.6k  -43%
8  Friends with Benefits  5.0  2.1k  -46%
9  Horrible Bosses  4.3  2.1k  -40%
10  Transformers 3  2.9  1.6k  -52%

August is here, so that means it time for the Planet of the Apes to Rise into 3648 theaters.  The film has a recognizable title, and the reviews are good, so what can go wrong.  There is only one thing that's missing:  Buzz.  That's right, the buzz is not very strong, meaning that is has to use it's reviews and brand name (?) to bring in audience, since they have been more choosy as of late.  This being said, like Cowboys and Alien, I don't see this getting 10k pta.

The Change-Up will switch places in 2913 cinemas today.  This Freaky Friday for Adults is about the umpteenth film with body switches, so how many do we need.  It may have recognizable star power, and R-rated raunch has been on a very hot streak as of late, but the reviews are not good, meaning that audience may be a bit shoddy with this one.  The cliche premise alone means that people will not rush to see this.  I see a mid 4k pta for this at best.

Among holdovers, Cowboys and Aliens and the Smurfs were neck to neck last weekend, but with less competition, the Smurfs will see a better hold, while Cowboys and Aliens will suffer a 50%+ drop, making it very difficult to recoup it's budget.  Captain America will stabilize a bit.  Harry Potter will continue is gradual declines.  Crazy Stupid Love would have held better if it had better WOM.  Friends with Benefits would have stabilized if not for it's theater drop, ditto for Horrible Bosses and Transformers.  This is the Scottie signing out, now time to go apples, I mean bananas.

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