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Hong Kong Box Office: July 21 Predictions
Rank Name Prediction % Change
1  Kung Fu Panda 2 $2,600,000  
2  Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 $1,600,000 -55%
3  Transformers: Dark Of The Moon $240,000 -62%
4  Love Is The Only Answer $200,000  
5  Mr. Popper's Penguins $130,000 -72%
6  The Tree Of Life $25,000 -55%

Kung Fu Panda 2 will be the first animation movie of the summer and high expectations are riding on its box office grosses. After superb openings and record-breaking grosses all across Asia, Kung Fu Panda 2 will be expected to continue the trend. Kung Fu Panda 2 isn't one of those sequels where there's so much upfront demand that theaters must keep on adding shows but it will be one with great legs. After all, Harry Potter is only in its 2nd weekend and a lot of demand has to be met before crowds thin out. Pre-sales have been mixed with very high morning admission sales at almost all locations with weaker nights. Afternoons are where it's expected to be the most profitable as kids will use that time to catch the movie. Its weekend could be something like this:

Thursday: $450,000
Friday: $450,000
Saturday: $850,000
Sunday: $850,000

It has a very slight lead over Harry Potter right now in terms of pre-sales but walk-ins should heavily favor Kung Fu Panda 2 as Harry Potter has done notoriously bad with them. The weekend should heavily favor Panda and with theaters having to satisfy demand for all 4 versions (3D & 2D English; 3D & 2D Chinese), theaters will take away showtimes from other films like Mr. Popper's Penguins, Transformers or even Harry Potter.

Love is the Only Answer is the only other semi-wide release this week. This will cater towards young couples. Business should be in the realm of other past movies geared towards them. $200,000 start (not including previews) should be achievable. Soul Kitchen is a limited release that is only showing in 1 or 2 theaters. $6,000 could be its weekend tally.

After an explosive opening weekend, Harry Potter will relinquish the weekend to a formidable panda. Its pre-sales have been very strong with it outperforming Panda on nights at almost every location. Still, it will fall further behind Panda when it receives little walk-in support. The weekend drop should be very good for a Harry Potter movie due to business being stronger but it won't be enough to drop less than 50%. A 55% drop would give it 1.6m for the weekend and 6.4m total in 11 days. That would put it just behind Order of the Phoenix's 6.65m total for tops in the franchise.

Transformers will fall another spot with Kung Fu Panda 2 opening. After crossing 10m, either on Wednesday/Thursday, it will set its sights on beating Toy Story 3's total. It will be somewhat challenging as Kung Fu Panda 2 should take away most of its weekend showtimes from last week. The great thing is that it's keeping its showtimes on Thursday and Friday so even if it gets hammered on Saturday/Sunday, it should still do ok for the weekend. -62% would put it around 10.3m total.

Mr. Popper's Penguins will take another tumble this weekend as Kung Fu Panda 2 will directly hit its demographic. Other than that, it will pass 2m by Wednesday, making it one of the biggest surprises of the summer. So far this week, it's drops have been getting slightly bigger on weekdays and it has lost the ground that it was trying to make up on Transformers the past week and a half. This has led me to believe that demand has been met. A 72% drop would push it to around 2.1-2.2m in 18 days.

The Tree Of Life is still keeping its showtimes on Thursday/Friday so it should be able to do quite well this weekend given the competition. Weekend showtimes are a bit iffy but it looks like theaters will still give it a couple of showtimes. It might have the best drop of the top 5. A weekend of $25,000 would give it around $360,000 total.

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Total Comments: 1
Patrick Ferrara
Patrick Ferrara    Jul 21 2011 6:35am
man, it sounds like HK distributor's are giving The Tree of Life a better chance than their North American counterparts did.