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Scottie Predicts (Harry Potter Weekend)
Rank Name Prediction Theater Count % Change
1  Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II 154.1m  4375 new 
2  Transformers 3  21.1m  3917  -55%
3  Horrible Bosses  17.0m  3134  -40%
4  Zookeeper  9.4m  3482  -53%
5  Winnie the Pooh  8.4m  2405  new
6  Cars 2  6.8m  3249  -55%
7  Bad Teacher  4.3m  2659  -52%
8  Larry Crowne  2.6m  2280  -56%
9  Super 8  2.4m  1459  -50%
10  Monte Carlo  1.1m  1169  -71%

Prediction above for span between 7/15/2011 and 7/17/2011

The time has come.  To some, this will be the end of their childhoods, and to the few others, they will be saying "Thank God it's Over."  The Harry Potter series finally comes to an end in the third dimension with The Deathly Hallows Part II, the 8th film in the 7 book series.  This will be the first one to be released in 3D.  Opening to a high number is not the question, the question is, how high will it go.  With $32 million in advance sales as of yesterday, some are speculating that it may beat Dark Knight's record.  As for myself, well, it has a chance, but this being a rush-factor film, it will be tough to top that figure due to the fact that the IM from Friday will be very low.  With added grosses with 3D screens and IMAX 3D screens, the opening day will be higher than Part 1.  I see a Friday figure near the $80 million mark.  Like the last one, the IM will be extremely low, and with Midnights being more front loaded than usual, I see the IM in the 1.9 range, just like New Moon.  Therefore, it will fall just short of Dark Knight's record, unless Sunday surprises us with a low decline.

As for non-Muggle films, Winnie the Pooh has a tough task opening on the same weekend as the Wizard.  Unlike the last three Pooh films, this one was animated at the Walt Disney Studio and will count as the 51st Animated Feature.  The reviews have been on the favorable side with many of them pointing out the nostalgia factor of the original featurettes, and old fashioned animation, and fun songs.  Kids will want to see it, but some Adults want to see this too since this one will remind them of the movies they saw as kids, and the story being based on the original stories will add to the charm.  Aside from the competition, the other obstacles this will face besides finding Eeyore's tail are, first off, the running time of only 63 minutes, no double bookings, and the fact that this movie is hardly getting any primetime shows, meaning that it will not take advantage of high priced adult tickets, like it would make any difference.  Still, I see a PTA in the 3.5k range, which is not sweet as hunny, but a respectable outing compared to the previous adventures.

Among holdovers, Transformers will lose all of it's IMAX shows and alot of 3D screens, and with the 3D screens making up a huge share of the grosses, this will hurt the performance alot.  Horrible Bosses will have the least horrible drop in the top ten due to the fact that it has no competitors in the comedy department, and this being Warner Brothers, it will benefit from Harry and the gang the most.  Zookeeper should see a similar drop to Evan Almighty.  Cars 2 will lose more 3D screens, and sees a new competitor in Harry since demographics are a match.  Bad Teacher will have a bigger drop this time around.  Larry Crowne will continue to get hurt not only due to poor WOM, but it is now losing theaters.  Super 8 will drop big due to the theater loss, but the PTA will be stable.  Monte Carlo will get hurt the most from Harry Potter due to a massive theater drop, and a match in demographics, putting it's PTA under 1k.  This is the Scottie flying off....

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Total Comments: 1
Karl Schneider
Karl Schneider    Jul 15 2011 10:07am
Go HP7!