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Hong Kong: July 14 Predictions
Rank Name Prediction % Change
1  Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 $4,500,000  
2  Transformers: Dark Of The Moon $450,000 -76%
3  Mr. Popper's Penguins $356,070 -61%
4  The Tree Of Life $46,800 -64%
5  Beach Spike $13,080 -88%

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 is the finale of the Harry Potter franchise and no doubt it will command big bucks this weekend. It is far outpacing Transformers 3, Toy Story 3 and Pirates 4 in pre-sales so far at almost every location. It will have both IMAX screens (albeit the smaller one shared with Transformers 3) and also has the extra blockbuster surcharge that Pirates and Transformers 3 got. Theaters will show 3 different versions to moviegoers: the 3D English version, the 3D Chinese version and the 2D English version. All versions will contribute to Harry Potter's opening weekend as it looks to take down every record that Transformers 3 broke just 2 weeks ago. Transformers 3's opening day is in serious jeopardy with how fast tickets are selling out on Thursday. Full breakdown could turn out to be something like this...

Thursday: $900,000
Friday: $1,000,000
Saturday: $1,375,000

Sunday: $1,325,000

If Harry Potter keeps up this torrent pace, theaters will have no choice but to cut Transformers and Popper's from most of their Saturday/Sunday schedule. Turning back the clock, Harry Potter 6 opened to an amazing $2,976,000 opening weekend but that was without 3D and premium movie surcharges. While Harry Potter 7-1 opened to less than $2 million OW, it opened during the Christmas period where demand was spread out. As the Harry Potter franchise grows older, the opening weekends of Harry Potter films released in the summer accumulates more. Look at the past 3 summer Harry Potter flicks:

Harry Potter Opening Weekends
Film Gross
HP3 $2,148,842
HP5 $2,649,588
HP6 $2,976,407

There are several reasons why Harry Potter will explode with the finale. First of all is its the finale. There has been so much buildup towards this release that a bone-crushing opening weekend is expected. Second, like with Transformers 3, the China effect will bring in people who don't want to wait until August 4 down here to catch it. Third, the slated release of Kung Fu Panda 2 next weekend will accelerate Harry Potter's opening. While other summer Harry Potter movies had the luxury of having 2 weeks to itself, this one won't get that as Kung Fu Panda 2 is expected to gross a big sum starting July 21. Fourth, the extra surcharges will help in inflating the gross.

Honestly, with the way things are going for Harry Potter so far, pretty much every record that Transformers 3 set 2 weeks ago is going down this weekend.

Speaking of Transformers 3, it dropped quite well last weekend when it went up against Mr. Popper's Penguins. This weekend, its showtimes will get cut 70% due to the direct hit from the bustling Harry Potter and the emergence of Mr. Popper's Penguins. Its 2D screens will either get completely cut or will be severly limited as well so a drop over 60% is locked. Most theaters have decided to either split this with Mr. Popper's Penguins or limit showtimes to just 1 or 2 per day. So far, ticket sales for Thursday aren't very good and it is behind Mr. Popper's Penguins but it should still be enough to claim 2nd place this weekend with the added charges. A drop of about 76% would push it to about 9.3 or 9.4m total.

Mr. Popper's Penguins had a great opening last weekend and it hopes to follow that up with a good drop. Theaters have been relatively kind to it as it will keep a screen to itself in about 1/4 of the theaters. The rest will split with Transformers. Mr. Popper's Penguins will have a decent drop of about 60% due to its walk-in strength and with it being an alternative choice to Harry Potter/Transformers. A 61% drop would leave it with about $350,000 for the weekend and 1.6 or 1.7 million in 11 days.

The Tree Of Life saw a big opening for its arthouse appeal and took out Beach Spike to seal #4 last weekend. This weekend it will be showing at the same locations last week but with only 1 or 2 showtimes. Its drop will be quite steep with the limited showtimes but it will have a better drop than Transformers. -64% will take it to about $240,000...a great total for an indie movie with a semi-wide release.

Unlike The Tree Of Life, Beach Spike won't be saved as it squandered the many theaters it got with poor ticket sales. It is getting cut in half the locations and will get only 1 showtime in about 30% of the remaining locations. With the screen loss, it should drop more than 80%. A drop of about 88% would leave it with $13,000 for the weekend.

As for any holdovers left like Beginning Of The Great Revival, Green Lantern, Hangover 2, X-Men: First Class, The Conspirator, Something Borrowed, etc. expect all of them to have a 90% drop or worse. They will only be showing in 1 theater so grosses for the weekend will be extremely small.

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