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Hong Kong Box Office: July 7 Predictions
Rank Name Prediction % Change
1  Transformers: Dark Of The Moon $2,000,000 -62%
2  Mr. Popper's Penguins $600,000  
3  Beach Spike $200,000  
4  The Tree Of Life $125,000  
5  Beginning Of The Great Revival $29,153 -74%

Transformers: Dark Of The Moon will once again rule over Hong Kong as it continues its push to claim the summer crown. Last weekend, it shattered every opening weekend record imaginable when it grossed over 5m in 5 days. The sudden explosion in gross can be attributed to 4 factors: higher ticket prices, people willing to spend more money at the theater, China effect and lack of competition. This weekend, it'll be challenged by Mr. Popper's Penguins as it looks to make a dent in Dark Of The Moon's sales. For the most part, it'll be largely unaffected by the penguin invasion as they play to different audiences and it still has a good sized monopoly of screens. What has been encouraging this summer is that sequels have largely benefited by better than expected drops. Pirates, Fast Five, Hangover 2, X-Men: First Class all saw below 50% drops at one point during their run. The downside is that none of them grossed as much money as Transformers 3 did opening weekend. While Transformers 2 dropped 64% in its 2nd weekend, that was due to Ice Age 3's opening. This time, it won't have that amount of competition. Weekdays so far have been good and is a good sign for a good drop this weekend.  Unfortunately for Dark Of The Moon, its opening weekend will be a 5-day tally and not the usual 4. This weekend will see quite a big drop due to the differences in the number of days being factored in. A 62% drop from last weekend's 5-day opening would give it a 2 million 2nd weekend.

After what was supposed to be a hotly contested battle for #2 this week, the dust has settled and Bridesmaids has been pulled from the schedule leaving Mr. Popper's Penguins the sole mega-wide release this week. So far, Mr. Popper's Penguins has benefited from this stunning development and is even beating Transformers in admissions at a few theaters.  The potential for Popper's Penguins is endless here since Hong Kong people love cute animals and big & small things coming together (Gulliver's Travels). Judging from ticket sales so far, this should be able to beat Super 8 in gross and has a shot at taking down Green Lantern's opening weekend. It will play especially well come this weekend where kids will beg their parents to see this. A $600,000 start would be very good for this movie.

Other openers this week include Beach Spike, The Tree Of Life and Mysterious Island. Beach Spike is getting a wide release and looks to capture young couple's attention away from toy robots. Ticket sales have been dismal though but this could be another walk-in movie. $200,000 should be doable. The Tree Of Life is going with a surprisingly semi-wide release. The Cannes award will help in attracting moviegoers to this and reviews have been very strong. Also, there have been organized talks by certain people before and after the movie at specific showtimes to help the audience dissect and understand the movie's intentions. This will enhance the moviegoing experience for the public and could feed the movie in the coming weeks. Tickets have been quite solid but not as fast-selling as Mr. Popper's Penguins. A $125,000 opening would be spectacular for a film of this nature. Horror film Mysterious Island starring Jordan Chan is getting a limited release this weekend and will only play a to a certain demographic. This is one movie that is too strong for mainstream audiences and has limited appeal. Tickets have been very poor so a $5,500 start could occur.

Holdovers will once again get their screens slashed by the somewhat strong combination from Transformers/Mr. Popper's Penguins. Beginning Of The Great Revival will see half of its screens gone in favour of new releases. The holiday last weekend will inflate this weekend's drop so a 74% drop is conceivable.

X-Men: First Class will also see half its screens cut but it will rebound slightly after poor holds last Saturday/Sunday. A 65% drop would give it about $17,500 for the weekend.

Only two screens will still be showing Treasure Inn after Wednesday so another 80% drop could be in the works. It could fall 85%.

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