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Hong Kong Box Office: June 16 Predictions

Another changing of the guard will occur this week as Green Lantern takes the stage along with a handful of other new releases. After last weekend's hotly contested battle for top spot, this weekend will be much calmer. Green Lantern hopes to continue to fuel the box office by bringing home a great OW. There are some question marks though as to how well consumers will receive this movie. First, with the amount of superhero movies coming out this year, one has to wonder how many people will watch all the movies just to keep up with The Avengers. Second, the amount of sequels shown this summer trumps anything we've ever seen before. Moviegoers will be more apt to float towards recognizable franchises. Third, there's a review embargo on the movie which doesn't suggest anything about the quality of the movie itself but people might be more inclined to stay away from something opening weekend that has no reviews yet. 3D will help prop up its grosses but admissions might likely come in below Super 8. $700,000 would be a good start.

Other openers this weekend includes the two romance movies, Something Borrowed and Love For Life, a crime caper and period drama. In a twist from 3 weeks ago, this time, the roles of the domestic and foreign film are now reversed. Something Borrowed will have a wide release while Love For Life will only go semi-wide. Something Borrowed will likely capture $210,000 for the weekend while Love For Life only makes $80,000. The Conspirator, meanwhile, is in a handful of theaters. Coming off his stint as Charles Xavier in X-Men: First Class, James McAvoy will garner recognition and goodwill from viewers. An opening weekend of $25,000 may result. Henry's Crime is playing in limited theaters and could gross $10,000.

Holdovers were the big story last weekend as all of them managed to have a decent hold. I expect slightly bigger drops this week as more openers are taking screens away.

Super 8 had a fairly good opening last weekend after it bounced back from a poor Thursday opening. Alien movies, however, are prone to harsh second weekend drops.

2nd weekend drops - Alien/Monster films
Movie Drop
Cloverfield -62%
Skyline -76%
District 9 -57%
Battle: Los Angeles -52%

All four of these movies did not have the competition that Super 8 will have and only one has received comparable reviews. A 59% drop would give it $230,000 for the weekend.

X-Men, meanwhile, enjoyed a solid hold last weekend. This weekend it will get hit from another superhero release but it has had strong staying power so far. A 52% drop would see it with $266,374. It may even be enough to pass The Last Stand this weekend.

Hangover 2 had an amazing drop last weekend as it fell only 40% but this weekend will be much different as its screens will get hit hard by the movies coming out. -61% would leave it with a $105,238 weekend.

Pirates will also feel the brunt of the screen loss. A 64% drop could be in the works.

Microsex Office won't be as hard hit due to the tremendous support from Newport theaters but other theaters are cutting this for other films. It might fall 56% this weekend.

Submarine could see a 30% drop for the weekend.

Top 5 Predictions (June 16)

1. Green Lantern
2. X-Men: First Class
3. Super 8
4. Something Borrowed
5. Hangover 2

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