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Hong Kong Box Office: June 9 Predictions

Super 8 will lead the charge this weekend as it will be the only major wide release this week. It's prospects from the beginning have been quite interesting to track here. There's definitely a niche market for alien movies here and films like Predators have gone to enjoy modest success in the face of big competition. However, a couple of questions remain: How far of an alien fanbase does Hong Kong have and how well will a non-Aliens/non-Predators film fare? Still, a positive thing to note is that since the movie was enshrouded with mystery due to the trailers/secrecy, that will definitely bring in some curious people who might not have expected the movie to be aliens. It has IMAX to help pad its grosses OW. I will have to bump my prediction down though from $920,000 because it looks like it's getting 1 screen all day for most places. It should still do solid business and good reviews will help. An opening weekend of about $650,000 may be in the future.

Other openers such as the Korean film The Man From Nowhere, MicroSex Office and Fireworks From The Heart won't generate much money. Microsex Office will most definitely raise the most cash of the three. The movie is based off the successful tv series here and $160,000 would be a decent enough start for a film like this. The Man From Nowhere has showtimes at a select amount of locations and could make off with $80,000 for the weekend. Fireworks From The Heart could hit $15,000.

Holdovers won't fare very well as all are expected to drop over 50%. X-Men: First Class will have to work hard to avoid a 60% drop. While it has very good reviews/WOM, X-Men by nature has been a frontloaded franchise. 2nd weekend drops haven't been kind to the series.

X-Men Origins: Wolverine: -70%
X-Men: The Last Stand: -61%

This time it will be no different as X-Men was bolstered by a Monday holiday which helped Sunday admission totals. Screens have also been cut from 2 to 1 almost everywhere and competition from Super 8 will hurt. A drop of about 62% would give it $456,000 (using a $1.2m OW estimate) 2nd weekend. It's definitely a lock to pass 2m and could pass 2.5m if WOM kicks in/Green Lantern flops.

Hangover 2's OW shot up from its original OW by about 150%. Anything that it makes from here on out is gravy. WOM, however, has been mixed with a lot of burnoff done its first weekend. The original Hangover took it's biggest drop of the first 5 weeks in its 2nd weekend when it went up against G.I. Joe. Super 8 will definitely cater to the adult males but it won't be paralyzing for Hangover 2. -57% would bring it to $227,900 (using a $530,000 OW estimate).

Pirates 4 will get its IMAX screens slashed this week but theaters have been generally forgiving with their scheduling this week so a drop in the high 60's is not of the question. IMAX though carried a lot of its gross the past weekend and not having it will quickly bring down Pirates weekend gross. I think a 73% drop from a $365,000 estimate would leave it with $98,600 for the weekend.

Top 5 Predictions (June 9):

1. Super 8
2. X-Men: First Class
3. Hangover 2
4. MicroSex Office
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

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